Most NFL fourth-round picks have a high chance of sticking with the team that drafted them going into their second NFL season.

That might not be the case for New York Jets wide receiver Arian Smith.

After a rough start to the preseason, the former Georgia deep threat might not have a secure spot on the Jets’ 53-man roster.

Arian Smith’s stock is plummeting

As a fourth-round pick, Smith was not a premium investment, but the Jets took a relatively risky gamble on him, even for that draft slot. He came to the NFL with a much less reliable profile than your typical fourth-round receiver.

Smith went his first four college seasons without catching more than eight passes in a full campaign. He was completely off the radar until the 2024 season, at which point he was already 23 years old and had major advantages in experience and physical development.

That year, Smith broke out as an explosive playmaker for the Bulldogs, catching 48 passes for 817 yards (17.0 yards per reception) and four touchdowns.

Smith’s speed and vertical-threat potential were evident. However, he still had some gigantic holes in his game, namely his hands. Smith tied for the most drops among Power Four wide receivers with 10, while he caught an abysmal 2-of-9 contested targets.

At 24 years old, with plenty of speed, but only one remotely productive college season and some of the worst hands in the country, Smith’s resume read more like that of a seventh-round pick or undrafted free agent. Instead, the Jets took him in round four.

Smith’s rookie year did little to justify the Jets’ reach. In 16 games, Smith caught just seven passes for 52 yards on 16 targets. He struggled to get on the field even in a season where the Jets were bombarded with injuries and sorely lacked pass-catching talent.

In fairness to Smith, his film showcased a decent chunk of plays in which he created significant downfield separation but was not targeted. If Smith recorded a deep reception on just two or three of those plays, his rookie year would have been perceived much differently.

The problem is that we do not know whether Smith would have actually caught the ball if it came his way.

In the Jets’ 2026 preseason opener, Smith dropped a pass from Bailey Zappe that resulted in an interception. It wasn’t a perfect pass by Zappe, but it was one that an NFL receiver should catch more often than not—and one that Smith needed to catch to prove that his in-game hands have improved since college.

With limited targets in 2025, Smith did not have many opportunities to showcase the development of his hands, which is why it was extremely costly for him to blow his first chance of 2026 so egregiously.

Smith’s second preseason outing was even more troubling. Not only did he fail to draw a target across 23 offensive snaps, but he stood out for the wrong reason yet again, this time on special teams. In the first quarter, Smith was penalized for an illegal block above the waist.

As a rookie, Smith only played 54 special teams snaps, but he showed some flashes as a gunner for the punt team, which is where 44 of those snaps were played. He recorded three tackles while avoiding any penalties or missed tackles. His 78.1 special teams grade from Pro Football Focus was among the best on the team.

Special teams play could be Smith’s path to a roster spot despite limited offensive production. But after committing a penalty on Friday night, he has also been one of the Jets’ least impressive special teamers this season. His 47.8 special teams grade ranks second-worst on the Jets this season.

New York has been trying Smith out in some of the other units where he was not featured last season, including punt return (as a blocker) and kickoff, but he has yet to impress in either area. The penalty is the only number to his name.

Through two games, Smith has produced:

  • 40 offensive snaps
  • 16 special teams snaps
  • 1 target
  • 1 drop
  • 1 penalty
  • 0 receptions
  • 0 tackles

That… isn’t the best audition for a Day 3 receiver who caught seven passes in 16 games as a rookie.

Remember, Smith will turn 25 this year. He isn’t a wide-eyed youngster. Sure, he was a fourth-rounder, but we are talking about someone who is older than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. When a player is drafted on the older side, they are expected to be able to contribute quickly rather than be a long-term developmental project.

If Smith cannot provide competent production now, will he ever be able to? This is a nearly 25-year-old receiver who, in five of his past six seasons as a football player, did not even catch 10 passes.

Not to mention, Smith is being outplayed by plenty of players in the receiver room.

Second-year former UDFA Quincy Skinner Jr. has caught all six of his targets for 78 yards, including a 31-yard touchdown bomb on Friday night. UDFA rookie Malik McClain has caught three of his four targets for 33 yards. Second-year man Jamaal Pritchett has caught three of his four targets for 24 yards and continues to flash as a returner.

Everyone in the room seems to be taking advantage of their opportunities except for Smith. In fact, Smith’s drop in Week 1 remains the only drop credited to a Jets wide receiver this preseason.

The Jets might not be able to justify a roster spot for Smith unless something drastic changes over the upcoming training camp practices and in the final preseason game. As things stand, they already have five locks at wide receiver:

  • Garrett Wilson
  • Adonai Mitchell
  • Omar Cooper Jr.
  • Isaiah Williams
  • Tim Patrick

The Jets could keep one of the other young wideouts over Smith, but even if they elect not to, it doesn’t mean they are guaranteed to keep Smith just to get to six wide receivers.

Going with five receivers would be light, but the Jets may keep up to four tight ends with the emergence of Jelani Woods. They also have a quasi-tight end in fullback Andrew Beck, who caught two touchdowns last season. Additionally, rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq, a first-round pick with a historically great athletic profile, is a unique player who projects to handle a bevy of slot reps.

The Jets also have one of the league’s best pass-catching running backs in Breece Hall, while backup Isaiah Davis has been reliable in that area.

Because of the depth and versatility of their skill-position group, the Jets might feel content with five wide receivers if it means they can use Smith’s roster spot on a more deserving player at another position. They have no need to force him onto the roster solely to hit a wide receiver quota.

There is a chance that the first Day 3 selection of Darren Mougey’s managerial career may be looking at a practice squad spot, at best, going into his second season.