We recently broke down every reason for optimism behind New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith. While it’s obvious there are limitations in select areas, Smith is more than capable of delivering serviceable QB play in 2026.
Can he be more than serviceable, though? Could he be good enough to help break the Jets’ 15-year playoff drought?
Without question, he’s not expected to break the drought. If he can anchor a competitive offense while giving the team an opportunity to evaluate the remainder of their offensive talent, that would be a win.
With the start of the regular season less than two weeks away, let’s dive into some uncharted territory. How good would Smith really need to be for the Jets to shock the world and make the playoffs?
How good were last year’s playoff QBs in the AFC?
To establish a benchmark for Smith, let’s look at the seven quarterbacks who led AFC teams to the playoffs in 2025.
Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks, here is where each QB ranked in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play.
- New England Patriots QB Drake Maye: +0.23 EPA/play (1st)
- Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: +0.12 (7th)
- Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud: +0.09 (10th)
- Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: +0.06 (13th)
- Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix: +0.05 (14th)
- Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert: +0.02 (19th)
- Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers: -0.02 (23rd)
Obviously, Maye and Allen were both elite. Both players were MVP finalists, while Maye led the Patriots to the Super Bowl in his first full year as a starter. Maye led the NFL with +0.23 EPA per play, while Allen finished seventh at +0.12.
After those two, though, the bar dropped quickly.
Four of the AFC’s seven playoff quarterbacks last season finished outside the top 10 in EPA per play. Three ranked outside the top 13, while Herbert and Rodgers both finished outside the top half of the league. Rodgers even posted a negative EPA per play (-0.02).
Overall, the median quarterback among the seven was Lawrence, who ranked 13th with +0.06 EPA per play. That gives us a fair reference point.
Let’s be honest, no single metric can establish a definitive benchmark for what a QB needs to do for their team to make the playoffs. Quarterback play is just one part of the multifaceted equation. Coaching, supporting cast, defense, and strength of schedule are each very important as well.
Even with that in mind, though, what stands out from using the 2025 playoff field is that Smith doesn’t need to play at an MVP level for the Jets to be in the playoff race.
Getting to the middle of the pack is important, however.
Smith was far below the benchmark in 2025
Of course, this is the first thought: Smith wasn’t close to the middle of the pack in 2025.
Nobody is doubting how poor Smith’s performance in Las Vegas was. He led the league in interceptions and was toward the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.
While his completion percentage remained in the top half of the league, almost all of his other metrics fell off. Among the same 37 qualified QBs, Smith ranked 34th in EPA per play (-0.16).
Here is a deep look at where he ranked in other advanced metrics.
- Success rate: 43.6% (31st)
- ADOT (Average Depth of Target): 6.4 yards (36th)
- Yards per attempt: 6.8 (25th)
Most encouraging, his accuracy remained elite, as he completed 67.4% of his passes, ranking eighth among qualified quarterbacks. Furthermore, in a clean pocket, Smith’s adjusted completion percentage of 81.9% ranked seventh among 33 qualified quarterbacks, between Maye and Sam Darnold.
It’s fair to point out that despite his 67.4% completion rate, he didn’t generate much value, ranking 36th in ADOT and 25th in yards per attempt. That could be partially an indicator of how poor his situation was, with the Las Vegas Raiders lacking competent play-calling and a reliable supporting cast.
So, let’s compare that to all seven AFC playoff quarterbacks from last season. The average QB from that group posted +0.06 EPA per play, a 47.5% success rate, and 7.2 yards per attempt.
Smith, on the other hand, checked in at -0.16 EPA per play, a 43.6% success rate, and 6.8 yards per attempt.
If the Jets get that version of Smith in 2026, they have virtually no chance to legitimately contend for a playoff spot, barring an unheard-of defensive season.
But the good news is that it wasn’t all that long ago that Smith was a playoff-caliber starter.
What type of rebound would the Jets need?
When discussing the possibility of Smith bouncing back, everyone’s mind goes right to the 2022 season with the Seattle Seahawks, when he shocked the league.
In 2022, he completed a league-high 69.8% of his passes, threw for 30 touchdowns, made the Pro Bowl, and led Seattle to the playoffs with a 9-8 record.
The truth is that his play will most likely fall somewhere between his 2022 ceiling and his 2025 floor, and that’s totally fine as long as it’s closer to 2022 than it is to 2025.
The good news is that 2022 isn’t the only year to cling to. It was just two seasons ago, in 2024, that he was a more-than-serviceable QB.
Among 39 qualified quarterbacks that year, Smith ranked 20th in EPA per play at +0.03, 16th in success rate (46.7%), fifth in completion rate (70.4%), and 13th in yards per attempt (7.5).
Those numbers stack up very similarly to the average of the AFC playoff quarterbacks last season.
| Metric | 2024 Smith | 2025 AFC playoff QB average |
| EPA/play | +0.03 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.7% | 47.5% |
| Completion rate | 70.4% | 65.7% |
| Yards per attempt | 7.5 | 7.2 |
Smith was just 0.03 EPA per play behind the average AFC playoff QB last season. His success rate was also less than 1% below the average.
Meanwhile, he actually surpassed the group’s average in both completion rate and yards per attempt.
This comparison is worth keeping in mind. Based on this exercise, for the Jets to be in playoff range, they don’t need Smith to reach a peak he hasn’t reached yet or even play at the level he did in 2022.
What changed in 2025?
Let’s take a look at the statistical difference between Smith’s 2024 and 2025 campaigns.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
| EPA/play | +0.03 | -0.16 |
| Success rate | 46.7% | 43.6% |
| Completion rate | 70.4% | 67.4% |
| Yards per attempt | 7.5 | 6.8 |
An interesting tidbit here is that his completion percentage fell by only three percentage points, yet his overall efficiency plummeted. Smith’s EPA per play dropped by 0.19, while his success rate fell by 3.1 percentage points, and his yards per attempt dropped from 7.5 to 6.8.
The biggest issue for Smith was a dip in explosiveness, evidenced by the steep drop in yards per attempt despite his completion percentage remaining high. Smith shares some blame in that, but he was also in a far-from-ideal situation that hindered him from making plays downfield.
The offensive line was a major roadblock preventing Smith from having the time to push the ball downfield. He was pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks, which was the sixth-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. When in a clean pocket, his EPA was up to +0.24, but under pressure, it fell to -0.71.
Every quarterback is better in a clean pocket, but 0.95 points is a more significant swing than usual. It shows how much Smith relies on quality pass protection to be effective at this stage of his career.
Yes, Smith certainly deserves some of the blame for how he handled that pressure. Smith’s 25.9% pressure-to-sack rate finished dead last among quarterbacks in 2025. It was the second straight season that he took a large step back in this area, showing that his elusiveness in the pocket might be declining. Smith also led the league with 12 interceptions under pressure.
Once again, though, the good news is that the Jets don’t expect Smith to return to his peak in 2026. He played around the level of your average playoff-caliber QB just two seasons ago.
The Jets’ goal should be to put him in a position to return to that level.
What’s the realistic bar for Smith?
There is no magic number in any metric that guarantees the Jets will snap their grueling playoff drought if Smith reaches it.
However, evaluating the AFC quarterbacks who made the playoffs in 2025 provides context and helps establish a realistic bar.
Only three of the seven AFC playoff quarterbacks from 2025 ranked inside the top 10 for EPA per play. Herbert made it while ranked 19th, and Rodgers made it while ranked 23rd, posting a negative mark. Nix also ranked 31st in yards per attempt, while Rodgers finished 29th.
That is a perfect example that it doesn’t take elite quarterback play to make the playoffs.
The Jets should be aiming for Smith to perform at the level of a league-average quarterback to make a potential playoff push. A return to his 2024 level would be huge for the team.
That would include being around +0.03 EPA per play, a 47% success rate, and 7.5 yards per attempt. Overall, that would place him above several playoff QBs last season.
After that, the remainder of the team becomes responsible. There are several questions on the Jets’ roster that are out of Smith’s control.
The biggest wild card is the team’s defense. After being one of the worst units in football last season, the depth chart has been completely revamped, and Aaron Glenn is taking over play-calling duties.
How good can they be in 2026? It would obviously take a sizeable leap from 2025 to enter the playoff conversation. They do not have to be elite, though. If the Jets’ defense could perform like a top 13-15 unit, that would be enough to anchor a playoff push alongside league-average quarterback play from Smith.
Ultimately, so much is out of his control, but a 2024-type season for Smith as he begins his second stint with the Jets should be enough for the team to be in the playoff conversation.
