NFL games are won and lost through the air.
That’s the way it’s been for decades now. Gone are the days of “three yards and a cloud of dust”, when teams could win without a semblance of an aerial attack.
Of course, the run game still matters immensely in today’s NFL. In fact, its importance has been creeping back up in recent years, accompanying the rising usage of heavy personnel packages (a modern wave that the Jets are riding in 2026).
With that said, there is no doubt that the disparity in aerial production often explains the outcome of a game. The team that had the better day through the air wins far more often than not.
For instance, in the 2025 NFL regular season, the team with the better passer rating won 203 out of 272 games around the league, a 74.6% rate. Passer rating is a crude metric, but that’s the point: simply by looking at which team had better passing efficiency in the box score, you have a three in four chance of accurately identifying who won the game.
The New York Jets have long struggled to out-throw their opponents. There have been years in which they thrived on the ground, both offensively and defensively, and they have even had years in which their pass defense was elite. What New York has been unable to do throughout most of the 21st century is simultaneously field an above-average pass defense and an above-average pass offense.
Two games into 2026, they’re finally doing just that.
It’s an odd sight for Jets fans, but the team has significantly outperformed its opponents through the air. New York has a +2.4 margin in net yards per pass attempt, ranking fifth-best in the NFL. They are accompanied in the top six by a plethora of title contenders:
- Seattle Seahawks (+3.9)
- Los Angeles Rams (+3.2)
- Baltimore Ravens (+2.8)
- San Francisco 49ers (+2.4)
- New York Jets (+2.4)
- Buffalo Bills (+2.2)
Net yards per attempt (NY/A) is a useful metric because, as opposed to standard yards per attempt (Y/A), it accounts for sacks and sack yardage, giving us a more accurate measure of a team’s overall pass-game efficiency. The flaws are that it still doesn’t account for quarterback scrambles (which are part of the pass game) or penalties, but it gets the message across.
Defensively, the Jets rank second-best in the NFL with 3.9 net yards per attempt allowed, narrowly trailing the Seahawks (3.8). Perhaps more unusual, though, is that New York’s passing attack has been above-average. Led by Geno Smith’s steady play, the Jets’ offense ranks 14th-best with 6.3 net yards per attempt.
This is a winning formula. If the Jets’ defense can continue to hold opponents in check to this degree, the offense does not need to be any better than “above-average” for New York to have a significant aerial advantage each week.
Of course, we’re only two weeks in. It remains to be seen whether the Jets can maintain their surprising passing success on either side of the ball, especially defensively. So far, they’ve benefited from facing Cam Ward and an extremely depleted Packers offense in the rain.
The next two weeks will be a useful measuring stick for the Jets’ pass defense. An indoor road game against Jared Goff and the high-octane Lions offense looms in Week 3. After that, they’ll head to Chicago to face Ben Johnson and the Bears, although it remains to be seen whether starting quarterback Caleb Williams will be available.
The Jets have planted the seeds of a formula that can win games at a high level in the modern NFL. The question now is whether they can maintain it, and, even if they do, they have to make sure it translates to victories by learning how not to beat themselves.
