So much for the “analytics wave.”

For all the talk we’ve heard about advanced metrics taking over the NFL throughout the past decade-plus, we are constantly reminded that these billion-dollar organizations are still making million-dollar decisions based on fantasy football logic.

Few things summarize this more than the Los Angeles Rams’ recent agreement with Kyren Williams.

On August 5, the nearly 25-year-old running back agreed to a three-year, $33 million extension with Los Angeles, tying him to the team through 2028. His deal ranks eighth at the position in average annual value ($11 million) and seventh in total guarantees ($23 million).

If you only analyze Williams through a fantasy football lens, he is worth every penny of that contract. He rushed for 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns last season.

But if you analyze Williams through a reality football lens, he is one of the most overpaid players in the sport, and has now reset the running back market to an extreme degree.

Kyren Williams is a cautionary tale

When we peel back the layers of Williams’ 2024 season, he looks like a below-average player whose box-score stats were propped up by an enormous volume of touches and an elite offensive line.

In 2025, NFL teams should be capable of separating players from outside factors that impact their box-score numbers. Bizarrely, the Rams—who are usually one of the NFL’s smarter organizations—attributed Williams’ numbers to him instead of his surroundings.

Here is where Williams ranked among 31 qualified running backs (min. 150 carries) in multiple advanced metrics that are designed to isolate the player’s impact from outside factors.

  • 22nd in rushing yards over expected (0), per NGS
  • 27th in yards after contact per carry (2.72), per PFF
  • 23rd in missed tackles forced per carry (0.158), per PFF

The first metric paints the clearest picture. According to Next Gen Stats, Williams finished the season with zero rushing yards over expected (RYOE). This means he gains exactly what he was expected to based on the blocking presented to him – not a yard more, not a yard less.

It doesn’t seem wise to commit a top-eight contract to a player who adds nothing beyond what is handed to him.

Williams’ season becomes more unimpressive when considering his severe lack of big plays. Despite amassing 316 carries (third-most in the NFL), Williams’ longest run of the season went for just 30 yards. Only two of his 316 carries went for 20+ yards.

Yet, Williams had every opportunity to hit home runs. Los Angeles had the fourth-best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL based on Pro Football Focus’ rankings. With that type of blocking, the running back is a major net-negative to pick up 20+ yards on two out of 316 carries.

It’s not entirely shocking from a player who ran a 4.65.

Defenders of the contract will point to Williams’ prowess as a touchdown scorer, but that was a product of opportunity more than an indicator of skill. Of Williams’ 14 touchdowns, 12 were scored inside the five-yard line. He received a league-high 19 attempts from within four yards of the goal line, so it’s no coincidence he scored a bunch of touchdowns, especially with a top-four offensive line blocking for him.

On top of it all, Williams adds little as a receiver – he recorded just six receiving first downs in 16 games.

This is the premier example of a running back who looks great in fantasy football but doesn’t actually move the needle in real life. He is the type of player who may have duped teams of yesteryear, but should not be fooling anybody in an era where all of this data is readily available.

For years, the running back market fell quiet, mostly because teams were learning not to pay players like Williams. But things are trending back up for the once-proud position; nine players are currently making at least $10 million per year.

And that number should skyrocket in the near future.

With a player as mediocre as Williams receiving top dollar, the future is bright for any half-decent young running back who wants a new contract.

That brings us to Breece Hall.

Breece Hall’s ceiling is miles above Williams’

Hall spoke on Wednesday about the recent contracts signed by Williams and Buffalo Bills running back James Cook.

When asked whether the recent deals have prompted him to think about what his contract could look like, Hall responded, “No, because they’ve both done much more in this league than I have. They’ve been in better situations and they’re both very good players. For me, obviously I feel like I’m just as talented as anyone. Those guys are two really good running backs and they deserve their payday.”

It’s humble of Hall to say that Williams has done more in the league, but Hall has actually displayed a much higher ceiling. Williams has looked better due to a more favorable situation, but even in a much worse environment (and in a personal down year), Hall was slightly more impactful than Williams last year.

Here is where Hall ranked in the same three metrics we evaluated for Williams:

  • 21st in rushing yards over expected (4), per NGS
  • 17th in yards after contact per carry (3.04), per PFF
  • 22nd in missed tackles forced per carry (0.172), per PFF

Hall ranked higher in every category – and this was his worst NFL season by a wide margin.

Additionally, Hall was much more involved as a receiver, recording 57 receptions, 483 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns to Williams’ 34/182/2. While Hall had a bigger role in the pass game due to New York’s lack of weapons, he still runs laps around Williams from an efficiency standpoint, averaging 6.4 yards per target to Williams’ 4.6.

To be fair, Williams had a much better season in 2023. But so did Hall – and that was coming off an ACL tear.

Here is where they ranked in 2023.

  • Rushing yards over expected: Hall; 7th (+146), Williams; 7th (+146)
  • Yards after contact per carry: Hall; 3rd (3.41), Williams; 5th (3.34)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: Hall; 13th (0.206), Williams; 6th (0.224)

The two were close as rushers, but Hall still had a massive advantage as a receiver, posting a 76/591/4 line (with 6.2 yards per target) to Williams’ 32/206/3 (4.3 yards per target).

And, keep in mind, Hall hasn’t enjoyed remotely close to the caliber of surroundings that Williams has over the past two years. Williams has benefited from Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay calling plays, and a top-five run-blocking offensive line (L.A. ranked fifth in PFF’s 2023 run-blocking rankings). Hall’s three seasons have seen a carousel of poor quarterbacks, poor play callers, and makeshift offensive lines.

The bottom line: If Kyren Williams can earn $11 million per year in today’s market, the ceiling is limitless for Hall – and any other running back with a ceiling above “league average.”

Williams getting paid despite being more of a beneficiary than a creator will buy an incredible amount of leverage for value-adding running backs in future negotiations. Hall, who has spent his whole career trying to add value in unfavorable situations, can be one of those running backs.

With a big year in 2025, Hall will have the leverage to demand a lucrative contract in 2026 – one that is probably too expensive for the Jets to justify keeping him.