The New York Jets begin their 2026 regular season in five days.

It’s time for another year of Jets football. Is the outcome going to be much different than the past 15 years?

Nobody can promise that, but here are my three biggest hot takes for the Jets’ 2026 season.

Geno Smith breaks Jets’ single-season passing record

Since Joe Namath in 1967, the Jets have not had a quarterback surpass 4,000 passing yards. Namath currently holds the Jets’ single-season record for passing yards at 4,007.

In my eyes, that will change this year. Geno Smith will break that record.

In two of his past four seasons (2022 and 2024), Smith surpassed 4,200 yards, throwing for 4,282 yards in 2022 and 4,320 in 2024. In 2023, he tallied 3,624 yards across 15 games (pace for 4,107), while in 2025, his decline with the Las Vegas Raiders saw the number plummet to 3,025 yards in 15 games.

As you dig deeper into his 2025 season, though, the results were tied to a poor supporting cast and an overall lackluster environment. Just ask his former head coach, Pete Carroll, who was right there with him throughout the year.

If you take the numbers from his past four seasons, there is a 50% chance he breaks the team’s passing record. In two years, he eclipsed 4,007 yards, and in two seasons, he didn’t.

I’m banking on Smith looking much better in 2026 with a stronger supporting cast and increased schematic cohesion with his offensive coordinator, Frank Reich.

Even during his rough 2025 campaign, he remained one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, finishing with a 67.4% completion rate, which was the eighth-best mark among QBs.

Smith was still able to thrive in a clean pocket, with an adjusted completion percentage (which accounts for drops, throwaways, etc.) of 81.9%. That ranked seventh among 33 qualified quarterbacks, pancaked between Drake Maye and Sam Darnold.

The Jets have the supporting cast, especially the offensive line, for him to succeed with. Now, he just needs to do his job, and he has proven he can throw for 4,000+ twice.

I’m betting that 2026 will be the third year.

Minkah Fitzpatrick will have 3+ INTs

Throughout his eight-year NFL career, Minkah Fitzpatrick has been among the league’s best ball-hawking safeties. Over his first five NFL seasons, he had 19 interceptions. However, over the past three years, he has only had two.

Now, as he enters his first season with the Jets, he has a prime opportunity to get back on track in this column. I have him nabbing at least three interceptions.

Fitzpatrick has logged 21 interceptions in 120 career games, which works out to 2.98 interceptions per season. He’s had high peaks in this area, including a league-best six interceptions in 2022.

It’s important to understand what the Jets want him to do. He was acquired after New York made NFL history in 2025 by going a full season without an interception. So, it’s fair to assume they acquired Fitzpatrick hoping to add more turnover-generating prowess.

Also, from a schematic standpoint, under Jets head coach and defensive play-caller Aaron Glenn, Fitzpatrick will have more opportunities to come away with INTs.

During Glenn’s final year as the Detroit Lions’ DC, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, Detroit’s top two safeties, combined for a whopping 13 interceptions, including nine from Joseph.

A large part of those high totals is due to Aaron Glenn’s system, particularly his heavy use of man coverage. Also, Glenn had clear-cut roles laid out for both Branch and Joseph.

In a recent interview with “The Pivot,” Fitzpatrick emphasized that the Steelers’ usage of him hindered his interception numbers.

“When I first got there, they just plugged me in at post safety, half safety. And I played well there,” he said. “After a while, quarterbacks aren’t going to be throwing you the ball a whole lot. I kind of got pushed into that role. People forgot that what I was known for was my versatility.”

Based on Glenn’s track record, Fitzpatrick won’t have to worry about schematics limiting his game. I predict that for the first time since 2022, the safety will log three or more interceptions.

Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. won’t combine for 1,000 yards

On paper, 1,000 combined yards for two first-round pass catchers sounds like a guarantee. That’s not the case, though, with Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq.

Cooper is expected to open the season as the Jets’ WR3 behind Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell. Yes, he will have opprotunites to make his mark and contribute as a rookie, but he is still competing for targets.

Posting 400-500 yards in the receiving game would be a respectable Year 1 for Cooper. He will have his chances, but at the end of the day, it’s tough to see enough targets being available for him to erupt for a 600- 700-yard rookie campaign.

Sadiq is the bigger reason why I don’t believe this will come to fruition. He missed a good chunk of training camp and the entire preseason after suffering a setback in his recovery from a hernia procedure.

Missing that much time is difficult for a rookie. Not only are the reps valuable for someone like Sadiq, but so is adjusting to the league and learning the playbook.

Meanwhile, tight end Mason Taylor, who’s entering his second season, looks ready to handle an immediate role after a strong end to his rookie campaign. Just like Cooper, Sadiq will have his chances to make a mark, but it feels like he will take some time to adjust to the league.

Even if they don’t combine for 1,000 yards, that doesn’t mean both of their rookie seasons were failures. With rookies, it’s important to look beyond the basic numbers and dive deep. Did they carve out a role? Did they contribute beyond pass-catching? Those are the two things I would look out for throughout the 2026 season with Sadiq, Cooper, and the remainder of the Jets’ rookies.

At the end of the day, though, it’s tough for me to see Sadiq and Cooper joining forces for 1,000 combined yards.