In their Week 3 loss to the Detroit Lions, the New York Jets told a tale of two halves in how they contained Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the NFL’s most explosive running backs.

In the first half, the Jets held Gibbs to just 25 rushing yards on seven carries before he erupted in the second half. After halftime, he took over, totaling 74 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries, adding and a go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter after the Jets’ multi-score comeback.

This week, against the Chicago Bears, the Jets aren’t facing off against any established playmakers of Gibbs’ caliber, but they will still need to focus on minimizing big plays in the rushing game, especially on the outside.

Jets can’t get beat on the outside again

On the outside, the Jets allowed Gibbs to rush for 37 yards on seven carries, averaging 5.3 yards per rush, with a touchdown and two 10+ yard runs.

The Jets can’t give up the outside for the second straight week as they take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears lead the NFL with 59 outside-zone carries, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt (13th) with a 33.9% success rate (17th).

So, Chicago doesn’t have otherworldly efficiency on such runs, but they commonly go to the well in that area, and if the Jets struggle to contain it, the Bears will dominate in that regard. New York’s defense has allowed a 38.9% rushing success rate on outside zone carries this season, the 12th-highest mark in the league.

Inside or outside, the Bears’ run game has been dominant this season. While D’Andre Swift is the team’s workhorse, leading Chicago with 59 touches, Kyle Monangai has been one of the NFL’s most efficient RBs this season. Here is where he ranks in several key metrics for efficiency this season among 43 qualified RBs (minimum 20 carries:

  • 5.9 yards per attempt (2nd)
  • 4.50 yards after contact per attempt (2nd)
  • 42.7% breakaway rate (1st)

All three numbers stand out. His yards after contact per attempt suggest he is very difficult to bring back, while his breakaway rate (percentage of rushing yards gained on 15+ yard runs) leads the league. It’s safe to say that the Jets won’t be able to ignore Monangai on Sunday.

That is especially relevant after Gibbs forced four missed tackles on seven outside carries against the Jets last week. Getting to the ball is only one half of the equation; New York can’t afford to miss a high number of tackles.

Chicago’s personnel usage also adds an interesting wrinkle. With one or no tight ends on the field, the Bears have averaged 5.8 yards per carry on outside-zone runs, which is the fourth-best mark in the league. Their 37.5% success rate in those situations also ranks 10th.

Meanwhile, with multiple tight ends, those numbers drop to 3.0 yards per carry and a 30.6% success rate.

Ben Johnson’s offense can keep opposing defenses on their toes. Typically, 11 personnel with one tight end on the field, especially on early downs, signals a passing play. Well, not in Chicago’s case.

At the end of the day, the Jets can’t afford to get gashed in the rushing game against the Bears. Whatever it takes to stop the run, they must make it a priority.