Can the NY Jets even make it close against the Bills?

When you’re a 7.5-point underdog at home, it says a lot about the nation’s faith in your ability to even make a game competitive.

Losers of four straight and fresh off a 35-12 beatdown in Kansas City, the 2-7 New York Jets are expected to be shellacked by the 7-1 Buffalo Bills, who are coming off a 17-point road win over a far stronger Minnesota Vikings team. The Bills also outscored Aaron Glenn’s Jets by a score of 65-18 across last year’s season sweep.

This isn’t a new position for the franchise. If the spread holds, it will be the league-high 12th time in the 2020s that the Jets have been underdogs by more than seven points at home, breaking a tie with the Houston Texans for the most in the NFL. The Jets went 2-9 in the previous 11 games, beating the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021 and the Bills in 2022.

Besides perhaps the Jets themselves, and their families, there is little faith across the country that New York can make this game close.

Here’s what needs to happen for the Jets to pull it off.

1. Disciplined rush lanes > pass-rush

The Jets’ defensive line has endured many issues in 2026, but one of the most consistent has been their inability to maintain discipline in their rush lanes. Both inside and on the edge, the Jets often rush with reckless abandon, yielding ample room for mobile quarterbacks to escape.

That cannot happen against Josh Allen.

Allen is using his legs as much as ever, averaging 7.6 rush attempts per game, slightly trailing 2022 (7.8) for the second-highest mark of his career. He has nine rushing touchdowns in eight games, putting him on pace for 19.

The Jets struggled to contain Allen last year. In his lone appearance against Glenn’s defense, Allen rushed six times for 59 yards, his second-highest total of the year.

Here in 2026, Allen has had his way outside the pocket in most games. But in his lone loss, a 29-26 home defeat against New England in Week 4, the Patriots held him to four rushing yards. They only sacked him once, but prioritizing containing Allen’s legs was worth the trade-off; Buffalo finished with just 19 total first downs on offense, which remains their season low.

David Bailey and the Jets’ defensive linemen need to be focused on keeping tight rush lanes around Allen. The goal should be to squeeze the pocket, not to win around the corner. If the Jets try to do the latter too much, Allen will consistently step through the vacated gap and do his thing.

2. Make Allen beat you short

Josh Allen is playing some of the best football of his career. He is averaging a league-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt, on track to beat last year’s career-high of 8.0.

It’s thanks to his prowess down the field. Allen is throwing deep (20+ air yards) on 15.3% of his pass attempts, fifth-highest among 33 qualified passers, and he has been prolific on those attempts. His six deep touchdowns trail only Joe Burrow (8) and Drake Maye (9), while his 552 total passing yards on deep passes rank fifth, one spot behind… Geno Smith (583).

Overall, Allen’s ADOT (average depth of target) is 9.3 yards, his highest since 2022 and a whopping 1.5 yards up from last season. Head coach Joe Brady has brought back the explosive version of Allen.

The Jets have to scheme around taking that away. Play safe, make the Bills beat you with a thousand paper cuts, and pray they beat themselves at some point; Buffalo has the league’s 10th-highest turnover rate (13.5% of drives). If the Jets get too aggressive defensively, Allen will definitely take the shot, and he will likely hit it.

When you’re an underdog, one of the best ways of maximizing your chances of victory is to shorten the game. The fewer possessions for each team, the more room for randomness; the more possessions for each team, the more likely it is that the favored team gradually takes control. This is the same logic that applies to going for two to win the game at the end of regulation; it’s easier to outplay a better opponent on one play than for an entire overtime period.

Most people think of running the ball on offense as the best way to shorten the game, but the defense has to contribute, too. If the defense allows quick scores on offense, they will put too much pressure on the offense to sustain long drives to shorten the game. The defense has to make sure that, even if the offense scores, it takes a long time. That will lower Buffalo’s scoring ceiling, helping to keep the game in reach for longer.

3. Pound the rock on offense

Staying with the “shorten the game” theme, the Jets should focus on their run game offensively.

In some cases, relying too heavily on the ground game as a 7.5-point home underdog would lean too far on the conservative side; you do need to take some chances to pull off a significant upset. Playing it safe is just playing to lose closely rather than win; the Jets are already quite good at losing closely.

In this case, though, running the ball makes sense because it’s Buffalo’s primary defensive weakness.

The Bills have been mediocre on defense this season, ranking 16th in points per game allowed. Their run defense has been particularly vulnerable, especially from a consistency standpoint. While the Bills are solid at preventing chunk yardage, as evidenced by their 10th-ranked 3.9 yards per rush attempt allowed, they allow plenty of positive gains, shown by their 25th-ranked 45.7% rushing success rate allowed.

This means Buffalo is ripe for the picking to allow long, sustained drives that are carried by the run game. Building 10 to 15-play drives behind a blend of Braelon Allen and Breece Hall should be the Jets’ goal. It attacks the Bills’ main defensive weakness while simultaneously accomplishing the goal of shortening the game.

Turning those drives into touchdowns will be essential, as the Jets continue to struggle in the red zone on a weekly basis, but that goes without saying. From a game-planning standpoint, the main focus should be the run game.

That doesn’t mean the Jets should run the ball on every play, though.

Once the Jets establish the run, they need to be aggressive with using play action to take shots down the field. Scoring before they get to the red zone is arguably their best shot of putting up touchdowns; Geno Smith’s deep arm has been a much better bet to find the end zone than four runs from inside the five-yard line, as wild as that is to say.

Pound the run game to chew clock, but don’t over-rely on it and run one too many times, burying yourself in second-and-long. Take the play action shot too early, not too late.

There’s a healthy balance to be struck, and we’ll see if Frank Reich can strike it.