New York Jets’ 2019 season in review: Robby Anderson

Nania's All-22 takes a deep dive into New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson's 2019 season with film and plenty of numbers. Career recap: After a productive, but tumultuous college career at Temple, Robby Anderson signed with the Jets as an undrafted free agent in 2016. He had caught 114 passes for 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns over 24 games with the Owls, but missed his redshirt-sophomore 2014 season due to academic ineligibility. Given that issue and his frail frame (6-foot-3, 190 pounds), seven rounds passed without Anderson's name being called. Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and Quincy Enunwa seemed to have their roster spots already locked down heading into 2016, but the competition was wide open beyond those three. Anderson would have every opportunity to make his claim for a place on the 53-man roster, competing against the likes of seventh-round pick Charone Peake, fellow undrafted free agent Jalin Marshall, veteran Jeremy Ross, and second-year former undrafted free agent Chandler Worthy. Anderson exploded in the preseason, leading the league with 264 receiving yards and tying for the lead with three touchdown grabs. Following that display, he made the opening-week roster. After averaging just five snaps per game over the first three weeks, Anderson became a regular part of the lineup in Week 4. He finished his rookie season with 42 catches for 587 yards and two touchdowns, flashing his tantalizing deep potential in the second half of the season (Week 9 onward) as he averaged 54.4 yards per game and 16.1 yards per reception (eighth-best among qualifiers over that span). In 2017, Anderson developed a strong rapport with Josh McCown and became the Jets' featured weapon on the outside. He caught 63 of 114 targets for 941 yards and seven touchdowns. All seven of those touchdowns traveled at least 20 yards through the air, which led the league. Anderson ranked sixth with 408 receiving yards on receptions made 20-plus yards downfield. In 2018, Anderson had a tough time connecting with Sam Darnold early on, save for a handful of beautiful deep bombs. However, late in the season, the two started to gel. Over the final four weeks of the season, Anderson ranked eighth in receiving yards (346). He finished the season with similar numbers to 2017, seeing slight dips across the board. Receiving yards per game - 2018: 53.7, 2017: 58.8 Receiving first downs per game - 2018: 2.4, 2017: 2.1 Receiving touchdowns per game - 2018: 0.43, 2017: 0.44 Receptions per game - 2018: 3.9, 2017: 3.6 2019 expectations: Anderson had flashed the potential to put together a complete 16 games of high-level production. Despite dealing with three different play-callers, five different quarterbacks, and horrid offensive line play over his first three seasons, he still produced a good number of big-time plays. From 2017-18, in 24 games where the Jets' first-string quarterback (Josh McCown in 2017, Sam Darnold in 2018) was healthy for the majority of the snaps, Anderson averaged 62.6 yards and 0.54 touchdowns per game — pace for 1,002 yards and nine touchdowns over 16 games. Given his impressive pace in games with a healthy starting quarterback, and his strong finish over the final four games with Darnold in 2018, there was plenty of reason to believe Anderson could rack up elite production in the right circumstances. With Darnold potentially headed for a breakout sophomore season, the hope going into 2019 was that Anderson could extrapolate his intermittent stretches of brilliance over a full 16 games. Positives: While much of it was out of his control (more on that later), Anderson was unable to make a leap in 2019, posting similar numbers for the third consecutive year. There were a lot of positives to take away from Anderson's fourth season despite the disappointing statistics. Certainly the most notable was the increased diversification of his route tree. Still wrongly labeled as "just a deep threat" by casual observers, Anderson took a big step up in the short-to-intermediate range in 2019. Here, Anderson wins on a quick slant to move the chains on 3rd & 3. This time on 3rd & 6, Anderson beats press coverage on the outside to pick up the first down. Nice job selling the subtle double-move, fighting through the contact to maintain inside leverage, and finishing it off with a tough low grab. Another third-down chain-mover for Anderson, who holds on following a hard hit by the safety. Respecting Anderson's deep speed, the corner opens up to the inside immediately, and Anderson takes full advantage with a sharp break inside. Running out of the slot, Anderson hooks up with Darnold on a back-shoulder throw. A lot of this production is a result of the respect that defenders have for Anderson's speed and ability to win deep. He does not receive many huge cushions, but corners tend to play him with a conservative approach, happily allowing him to execute short routes in exchange for shutting down his deep game. Having an offensive player with an elite skill that demands particular attention from the opponent has a positive ripple effect for the player himself and the entire offense. Anderson has provided the Jets with a lot of value in this way. Anderson has always been excellent at hauling in contested catches deep down the field, but he took it to another level in 2019, making some of the best tight-window grabs of his career. Anderson was a non-factor in the red zone early in his career, but he has become more involved in that area as his chemistry with Darnold has grown. After failing to haul in a single touchdown from inside the 10-yard line over his first 42 career games, Anderson has recorded four of them over his past 20 games (also adding in the two-point conversion in Baltimore seen above). Anderson picked up two red-zone scores in 2019, coming in back-to-back games against the Redskins and Raiders. Drawing penalties is another asset Anderson brought to the table in 2019. He led the entire team with seven penalties and 96 penalty yards drawn. Here, Anderson draws a 33-yard pass interference on rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker. Credited with just three drops against his 52 receptions, Anderson registered a career-low drop rate of 5.5% that ranked 35th-lowest out of 102 qualified receivers. He achieved that number while ranking 15th out of 83 qualifiers in air yards per reception (11.3), providing a solid blend of downfield playmaking and consistent hands. Negatives: Although Anderson still recorded decent deep production in 2019, ranking 19th in 20-plus yard catches (nine) and 20th in receiving yards on catches over 20 yards downfield, he has not been able to recapture the downfield magic he displayed in 2017. The low catch rates over the past two seasons jump out. The Jets have still been targeting Anderson deep down the field plenty, but the efficiency has not been there. Anderson ranked sixth in targets over 20 yards downfield in both 2018 (30) and 2019 (29), yet could not crack the top-15 in catches or yards in either season. I believe that these dips are mostly due to factors out of Anderson's control. One of the issues has been Sam Darnold's inaccuracy down the field. Darnold has done a lot of things well over his first two years in the league and has the upside to become a perennial star, but throwing deep is one area where he needs to improve mightily in order to fulfill that potential. Darnold ranked 32nd out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage (adjusting for drops, throwaways, etc.) on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield in 2019, with a mark of 33.3%. Anderson buys himself a ton of separation on this deep corner route, but Darnold airmails it. Anderson gets open for what should be a 48-yard touchdown, but Darnold overthrows him by a mile. Josh McCown has never been known for having a cannon of an arm, but for whatever reason, he caught fire in 2017. McCown ranked fourth in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes that season (46.7%), dropping beauties right into the bucket for Anderson to cash in on. Putrid play upfront is another issue that has limited Anderson's production. For an offense to attack deep consistently and effectively, high-quality protection is imperative. Ample time is needed for deep routes to develop, and a comfy pocket is essential for the quarterback to have enough space to step into his throw. The Jets' offensive line. . . stinks. And that is if we are putting it nicely. In 2019, Darnold took pressure on 42.4% of his dropbacks, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. In this play, the Jaguars have no safety deep, and Anderson is facing a one-on-one matchup in man coverage on the outside. Anderson gets enough separation from the cornerback for a potential shot (even with what looks like a hold), and Darnold is eyeing it down. However, Darnold does not have the time to make the throw as pressure seeps through (Jonotthan Harrison and Brian Winters seem most at fault). Anderson does what he needs to do in order to make a huge play happen, but the play instead results in a sack due to the offensive line's failure. Anderson goes completely uncovered and has a clear lane to a 39-yard touchdown, but Kelvin Beachum and Alex Lewis mishandle a stunt, leading to quick pressure that prevents Luke Falk from having the opportunity to find Anderson. Anderson's deep talent still flashed a few times throughout the season. It wouldn't be a 2019 Robby Anderson recap without including this 92-yard strike against Dallas — the second-longest offensive touchdown in Jets history. I think the biggest knock on Anderson's 2019 season is that he was a lower-echelon performer among the No. 1 targets in the league. That is not to suggest he performed poorly, or that he is not a good player. Anderson does a lot of things well and has proven to be a solid starting wide receiver in the NFL. He just is not complete enough of a player to be a team's top outside threat and succeed at a high level. Of the other 31 teams in the NFL, he would be the No. 1 option on maybe five others, at most. This issue is more so the fault of the Jets for their poor roster-building than it is on Anderson himself, who is simply being forced to do too much. The Jets have not made a strong effort to land an elite receiver over the three seasons since Brandon Marshall left town. With Quincy Enunwa's injury, their second and third outside receivers in 2019 were clearly-declined Demaryius Thomas and Vyncint Smith. There may not have been a worse No. 2/3 outside duo in the league. That weakness on the roster led to Anderson taking on a heavy load of difficult targets in crucial situations, and he came up with the play less often than most other No. 1 wide receivers would. Anderson had long stretches of inactivity due to his average route-running ability and failed to pull in some difficult jump-balls that most other teams would be throwing to a bigger-bodied, stronger-handed receiver. While he is an excellent deep threat and makes a good impact in the intermediate range, Anderson does not possess the ideal skillset for a go-to guy — the player who the quarterback trusts most to chuck the ball up to in a dire situation. On this Jets roster, Anderson has been forced to be that guy, and it has limited his own potential and that of the entire offense. Once again, all of this is not to say that Anderson is not a good player or that he hurt the Jets in 2019. Blame the front office for failing to find someone better than Anderson to handle the burden of being "The Man". If Anderson ever gets the opportunity to play alongside another legitimate outside threat who has a better all-around game and attracts more attention, then his gifted speed will really shine. We saw some instances above where Anderson was let down by Darnold, but now let's take a look at a few examples where Anderson failed to help out Darnold in 2019 — situations where you imagine a guy like Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, or Julio Jones would make the play. Darnold underthrows Anderson a bit on this deep ball, but it is good enough of a throw for Anderson to adjust and get two hands underneath it. He loses control coming to the ground, costing the Jets a touchdown. On 3rd & 12, Darnold lofts it with nice touch over the linebacker, but Anderson flubs it, nearly leading to an interception. On this 4th & 8 play, there are no good options available for Darnold to move the chains. However, he makes a heady improvisational move, showing off excellent wherewithal and ball placement as he gives Anderson a back-shoulder throw that affords him a chance to adjust away from the tight inside coverage. Darnold's throw is placed in a great spot, as he somehow creates an opportunity for a successful play despite there being seemingly nothing open (franchise quarterback stuff). Anderson adjusts himself to get two hands on the ball, but he bobbles it while contorting his body. Anderson is absolutely capable of making all of these catches. He has proven that countless times. It does not get a whole lot more difficult than this one: It is all about consistency, though. Most teams enjoy a higher conversion rate on these difficult plays than the Jets have with Anderson. If Anderson were a No. 2 receiver, though? He would be right up there with any Robin in the league. It is just too much to ask him to be Batman. 2020 expectations: Anderson is set for unrestricted free agency. Spotrac estimates his market value at $12 million per year, which would currently rank 17th among wide receivers. I am aboard the Robby Anderson bandwagon. I fully believe that if he ever gets the opportunity to be a second option on a team with a good offensive line, he will produce big-time moments with tremendous frequency and efficiency. Take a look at the career of Brandin Cooks, who like Anderson is best known for his tremendous speed and deep ability. From 2015-18, he had the benefit of playing with tremendous quarterbacking (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Super Bowl-season Jared Goff), genius coaching (Sean Payton, Bill Belichick, Sean McVay), other elite receiving targets (Michael Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods) and elite pass protection. He averaged 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns per season over that span while posting an incredible 9.6 yards per target (fourth-best over the span). In a similarly fruitful environment, I think Anderson would produce at that level. He has already played that well in spurts. In 2017, Anderson was on pace for 1,094 yards and nine touchdowns before McCown's injury. Over the past three seasons, Anderson's averages with a healthy QB1 would put him on pace for 940 yards and eight touchdowns over 16 games — and that is with a horrendous offensive line and a carousel of offensive coaches. Now take another look back at Cooks' numbers, and glance at his 2019 stat line. Previously a 1,000-yard machine, his production fell off of a cliff, falling even further below Anderson's career track record. Why? Supporting cast is largely to blame. The Rams' offensive line dropped from sixth in Pro Football Focus' 2018 rankings to 31st in 2019. Jared Goff fell from ninth in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes in 2018 (47.7%) to 28th in 2019 (37.5%). Imagine if Cooks had to deal with those detriments in every season of his career. That's Robby Anderson. Now, flip it around. What if Anderson enjoyed the luxury of playing in the offenses Cooks has played most of his career with? Cooks' 2019 production decline, which fell in accordance with a severe dip in the quality of his surroundings, supports the defense of Anderson's lackluster career production. Factors outside of a receiver's control can make him look bad on the stat sheet — especially if he is reliant on the deep game. The Jets do need to emphasize finding a top receiver to build their offense around. But their highlight-machine No. 2 receiver has been there all along. Lock him up, build the offensive line, get him another weapon to bounce off of, and reap the benefits for years to come.