Calculating NFL Draft success rates for each position – third round

Michael Nania analyzes the success rates of each offensive and defensive position in the third round of the NFL Draft. As Joe Douglas and the Jets ponder over positional value in preparation for the Draft, it is interesting to look back at the past and examine which positions have yielded the most value at each point of the draft. After digging through the second round, we move on to the third. I charted the career production of each third round pick from 2010-19 (317 players) to get a sense of how successful draft picks at each position have turned out to be. Various measures of productivity are listed for each position, as well as its rank in those measures among all positions. For the round one and round two breakdowns, I ranked the positions by their "primary starter rate," but this time, I will be ranking them by their average approximate value (AV) per season. Because we are getting towards the later stages of the draft, it seems fair to place less emphasis on finding true starters and focus more on how well teams have fared at finding any sort of value. Which positions have proven to be the worst investments during the third round? Let's start with the most successful positions and work our way towards the least fruitful of the bunch. Change from the first two posts: Cornerbacks and safeties have been grouped into one "defensive back" position. #11 - Running back (3.47 AV per season) Picks: 26 Possible seasons: 121 Approximate value: 302 (3.47 per season - 1st) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (1.7% - 3rd) Pro Bowl seasons: 9 (7.4% - 3rd) Seasons as primary starter: 25 (20.7% - 11th) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (7.7% - 2nd) Pro Bowl players: 5 (19.2% - 2nd) After posting mostly poor success rates over the first two rounds, the running back position comes back strong with by far the highest average of AV per season in the third round. With two First-Team All-Pros (DeMarco Murray and David Johnson) and five Pro Bowlers (Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and James Conner in addition to Murray and Johnson), it has been one of the best star-producing positions in the third round as well. Despite the excellent production, the running back position still put up the lowest primary starter rate of any position in the third round. That is because many of its best contributors have provided the majority of their value in reserve roles. Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Stevan Ridley, Kenyan Drake, and Jerick McKinnon have combined for 123 AV over 29 possible seasons - a rate of 4.24 per season that is phenomenal for the third round - but they have only been considered primary starters for four of those 29 seasons, a paltry 13.7% rate. Hence why we are now ranking the positions by AV per season - as the draft goes on, amassing depth takes priority over plugging holes in the starting lineup. #10 - Guard (3.13 AV per season) Picks: 26 Possible seasons: 154 Approximate value (explanation): 482 (3.13 per season - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 11 (7.1% - 4th) Seasons as primary starter: 77 (50.0% - 1st) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (11.5% - 5th) The guard position comes through with the highest primary starter rate for the second consecutive round, as its third round picks in the 2010s decade have played featured roles for their teams in exactly half of all possible seasons. That rate is 7.5% better than the second-ranked center position. There have been some big-time hits in this round. Trai Turner (now with the Chargers) made five Pro Bowls for Carolina. Brandon Brooks has made three for Philadelphia and is arguably the best guard in the league right now. Larry Warford started four years for Detroit and has been named a Pro Bowler in each of his three seasons since leaving the Lions for the Saints. Former Jets free agent target (until he was franchise-tagged) Joe Thuney has been snubbed from any Pro Bowl appearances, but he is one of the best guards in the league. #9 - Quarterback (3.00 AV per season) Picks: 13 Possible seasons: 69 Approximate value: 207 (3.00 per season - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 7 (10.1% - 2nd) Seasons as primary starter: 18 (26.1% - 7th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 2 (15.4% - 3rd) It's all about Russell Wilson for this group. He has amassed over half of the AV - 108 of 207 (52.2%), to be exact. While he has amazingly not been named a First-Team All-Pro, Wilson has picked up six of the seven Pro Bowl appearances for the third round quarterbacks of the 2010s. The other one belongs to Nick Foles. The other 11 quarterbacks in the bunch have a combined career record of 36-88 (.290) as starters. The winningest and most productive of those is Jacoby Brissett, who has a 12-20 record with 6,442 career passing yards over 38 appearances. #8 - Linebacker (2.95 AV per season) Picks: 41 Possible seasons: 214 Approximate value: 631 (2.95 per season - 4th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 6 (2.8% - 1st) Pro Bowl seasons: 8 (3.7% - 6th) Seasons as primary starter: 74 (34.6% - 4th) First-Team All-Pro players: 3 (7.3% - 3rd) Pro Bowl players: 3 (7.3% - 7th) For the third consecutive round, linebackers accumulate more AV per season than any other defensive position. NaVorro Bowman collected four of the six First-Team All-Pro appearances. Justin Houston added one, while 2012 Jets selection Demario Davis earned a nod with the Saints in 2019. Olivier Vernon, Preston Brown, Jordan Hicks, Christian Kirksey, Fred Warner, and Jordan Jenkins highlight the rest of the success stories in this bunch. Jets uber-bust Jachai Polite was included in the linebacker group. He will be the only third round linebacker of the 2010s to never appear in a regular season game if he fails to do so at some point down the line, and is already the only one to never play for the team that drafted him. #7 - Offensive tackle (2.93 AV per season) Picks: 29 Possible seasons: 140 Approximate value: 410 (2.93 per season - 5th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 3 (2.1% - 9th) Seasons as primary starter: 48 (34.3% - 5th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 2 (6.9% - 8th) Terron Armstead (two-time Pro Bowler) headlines the crop with a six-year stint as one of the best left tackles in the league for New Orleans. Orlando Brown has had an excellent first two years for Baltimore, making the Pro Bowl in his second season. Jared Veldheer, drafted in 2010, has started 113 games in his career. Chuma Edoga is hoping to add to the offensive tackle position's solid success rates in the third round. At 22 years and 134 days old when he made his first NFL start, he was the fifth-youngest offensive tackle to start a game in 2019. #6 - Center (2.93 AV per season) Picks: 8 Possible seasons: 40 Approximate value: 117 (2.93 per season - 6th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 0 (0.0% - 9th) Seasons as primary starter: 17 (42.5% - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 0 (0.0% - 9th) In addition to Thuney at guard, another 2020 Jets free agent target forged his success out of the third round - Graham Glasgow. He was listed as a center coming out of Michigan, but he played all three interior positions in college and has done the same in the NFL. He's off to Denver after a strong four years in Detroit, leading this pack with 26 AV and 58 starts. #5 - Wide receiver (2.53 AV per season) Picks: 46 Possible seasons: 272 Approximate value: 688 (2.53 per season - 6th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (0.7% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 14 (5.1% - 5th) Seasons as primary starter: 73 (26.8% - 6th) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (4.3% - 4th) Pro Bowl players: 7 (15.2% - 4th) Plenty of studs have come out of the third at WR. T.Y. Hilton (4), Keenan Allen (3), Emmanuel Sanders (2), Chris Godwin (1), and Kenny Golladay (1) are responsible for the Pro Bowls. In addition, Andre Roberts (2) and Tyler Lockett (1) made Pro Bowls as returners, each garnering First-Team All-Pro nods as well. Mohamed Sanu, Eric Decker John Brown, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, and Terry McLaurin add to the accomplished bunch. The Jets last took a wide receiver in the third round back in 2017, selecting Alabama's ArDarius Stewart at No. 79. He posted just 82 yards in his rookie season and has not appeared in the league since. Stewart was not the only mega-bust wide receiver in the third round that year. Carlos Henderson (#82 to Denver) and Amara Darboh (#106 to Seattle) are each out of the league as well after accumulating a combined 71 yards (all by Darboh - Henderson never played a regular season game). It just goes to show that, once you get into the later rounds, there are a handful of strikeouts for every home run. In the third round, that ratio generally hovers around 2:1. #4 - Tight end (2.36 AV per season) Picks: 23 Possible seasons: 121 Approximate value: 286 (2.36 per season - 7th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 3 (2.5% - 2nd) Pro Bowl seasons: 14 (11.6% - 1st) Seasons as primary starter: 47 (38.8% - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (8.7% - 1st) Pro Bowl players: 5 (21.7% - 1st) The tight end position puts up an interesting stat-line. It scored tremendously in terms of Pro Bowls, All-Pros, and seasons as a primary starter, but registered a low average of AV per season. When you analyze the group, you see that those numbers are a result of some big-time home runs coupled with a wide array of decent role players. Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham spearhead the pack, combining for 10 Pro Bowls (five apiece) and three First-Team All-Pro appearances (two for Kelce, one for Graham). Austin Hooper was a two-time Pro Bowler for the Falcons and was recently made the league's richest tight end by the Browns. Jordan Reed made one Pro Bowl and has shown star talent when healthy. Mark Andrews just made the Pro Bowl in his second season for the Ravens and is already one of the best tight ends in the league. There are not quite any other star receivers beyond those five players. In particular, the tight end position had a tough third round in 2019. Four tight ends were selected, and they combined for just 403 receiving yards and two touchdowns in their debut seasons. Both of the touchdowns and 388 of the yards were accumulated by Buffalo's Dawson Knox. Dwayne Allen and Ed Dickson are great examples of why the numbers fell the way they did at this position. Out of 18 possible seasons, they have combined for 10 seasons as primary starters for an excellent rate of 55.6% between them. However, they have not been productive as receivers, combining for 16.8 yards per game over their careers. Thus, their combined AV per season average falls at a measly 1.56. The bottom line - teams have found useful tight ends in the third round at a strong rate, but most of the successful picks have been primarily utilized as blockers while not producing much as pass-catchers. #3 - Defensive tackle (2.24 AV per season) Picks: 39 Possible seasons: 209 Approximate value: 469 (2.24 per season - 9th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 6 (2.9% - 7th) Seasons as primary starter: 53 (25.4% - 8th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 2 (5.1% - 9th) Only two Pro Bowl defensive tackles have come out of the third round over the past decade. Jurrell Casey was a slam dunk with five nods for the Titans. Brandon Williams made one for the Ravens and has been a perenially solid player. A good number of strong space-eaters have been found in the third. Corey Peters, Bennie Logan, Earl Mitchell, Maliek Collins, and Javon Hargrave have each collected at least 25 AV and four seasons as primary starters. The bust rate has been relatively high at this position, however. 20 of the 30 picks from 2010-17 have yet to hit 10 AV (66.7%). For reference, 10 AV is equal to former Jets safety Antonio Allen's career production. With 6 AV since being selected in 2018, Nathan Shepherd's average of 3.00 per season is solid for the third round. His average of 0.24 AV per game is third-best of the seven defensive tackles taken in the 2018 third round (behind B.J. Hill and Derrick Nnadi). That is even after he was credited with just 1 AV in 2019, which is a strong undersell given that he created pressure at an elite rate during his time on the field. While a great tool for analyzing the huge samples we have been looking at, AV tends to be inaccurate in small samples, as exemplified by Shepherd's numbers. His off-the-stat-sheet production as a pass-rusher clearly went unnoticed. If he can continue his progression as a pass-rusher, Shepherd has a chance to be one of the better defensive tackles to come out of the third round in recent memory. #2 - Defensive end (2.17 AV per season) Picks: 33 Possible seasons: 155 Approximate value: 336 (217 per season - 10th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 4 (2.6% - 8th) Seasons as primary starter: 34 (21.9% - 9th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (9.1% - 6th) Quality pass-rushers off the edge are considered one of the most valuable commodities in football. Living up to that billing, the defensive end position has checked in as one of the toughest to find throughout all three rounds. The group is diverse, including everything between behemoths like Akiem Hicks and electric ends like Danielle Hunter. It is primarily made up of players who line up from the 3-technique (guard's outside shoulder) and outward, while those who play inside of the 3-tech are considered defensive tackles. Hunter has made two Pro Bowls, while Hicks has made one. Honestly, it's a bit wild that is all those two players have on their mantle of career accolades. They have each been among the most consistently disruptive forces on the line of scrimmage since entering the league. Yannick Ngakoue has also made one Pro Bowl, racking up 37.5 sacks in four seasons. That is an impressive trio to lead the group, but the numbers accumulated by the other 30 picks are ugly. Only two have averaged at least 5.0 sacks per season - 2018 pick Sam Hubbard of the Bengals (14.5 total over two seasons) and 2019 pick Chase Winovich of the Patriots (5.5 as a rookie). That's it. Of the 25 picks from 2010-17, none have even eclipsed 4.0 sacks per season outside of Hicks, Hunter, and Ngakoue. Current Jet and former Colts third round pick Henry Anderson is the sixth-best pick of the 33-player group both in terms of total AV (19) and AV per season (3.8). Anderson is a decent player, but it is quite the indictment on this batch that its sixth-best player has averaged 2.2 sacks per season. #1 - Defensive back (1.62 AV per season) Picks: 72 Possible seasons: 405 Approximate value: 655 (1.62 per season - 11th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 3 (0.7% - 4th) Pro Bowl seasons: 3 (0.7% - 10th) Seasons as primary starter: 85 (21.0% - 10th) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (2.8% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (4.2% - 10th) The defensive back group - which includes safeties and cornerbacks alike - posts the worst average of AV per season by a colossal margin. Tyrann Mathieu, Kevin Byard, and Shaquill Griffin have made one Pro Bowl apiece. Mathieu has two First-Team All-Pro appearances while Byard has added one. In addition to those three stars, there are some other successes, such as Trumaine Johnson (before he bombed with the Jets), Morgan Burnett, Logan Ryan, T.J. McDonald, and Justin Simmons, but not nearly enough to make up for the group's substantial bust rate. 40 of the 50 picks from 2010-16 have failed to reach 20 AV (80.0%). For reference, that is about equal to Darron Lee's career total. Dexter McDougle, taken by the Jets with the 80th pick in 2014, is known as one of John Idzik's many infamous whiffs. The Jets got nothing out of him. Yet, he is not even close to the biggest miss in this third round DB bunch. Of the other 49 defensive backs taken in the third round from 2010-16, 16 of them (32.7%) have played even fewer games than McDougle's career total of 31. To wrap everything up, here are all of the numbers in one look. The lone player whose numbers are not included above is current Texans punter Bryan Anger, who was taken 70th overall by the Jaguars in 2012.