Calculating NFL Draft bust rates for each position – second round

Michael Nania analyzes the success rates of each offensive and defensive position in the second round of the NFL Draft. As Joe Douglas and the Jets ponder over positional value in preparation for the Draft, it is interesting to look back at the past and examine which positions have yielded the most value at each point of the draft. After digging through the first round, we move on to a round that has plagued the Jets for quite a long time - the second. I charted the career production of each second round pick from 2010-19 (317 players) to get a sense of how successful draft picks at each position have turned out to be. Various measures are included with each position, as well as their rank in those measures among all positions, but I decided to rank the groups according to their cumulative "primary starter rate" - the ratio of total seasons accumulated as a team's primary starter out of possible seasons (all seasons that have passed since a player was drafted). Which position has proven to be the least fruitful investment during the second round? Let's start with the most successful positions and work our way towards the worst of the bunch. Change from first post: the "Edge linebacker" and "Off-ball linebacker" positions will be combined into one "linebacker" position for the ensuing six rounds. #12 - Guard (65.6% primary starter rate) Picks: 13 Possible seasons: 64 Seasons as primary starter: 42 (65.6% - 1st) Approximate value: 302 (4.72 per season - 1st) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 4 (6.3% - 7th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (23.1% - 3rd) The guard position sees by far the smallest drop-off from round one to round two. First round guards in the 2010s decade have combined for a primary starter rate of 69.3%, which was fifth-best in that round, and the number takes a small dip to 65.6% here in the second round, best of all positions. Guards taken in this round have also seen the best average of approximate value (AV) per season, cementing their status as the best second round position of the decade. As a sign of the talent decline from the first round to the second, the guard position's No. 1-ranked average of 4.72 AV per season would rank as the third-worst in round one. While there is not a true superstar in this crop, it is stacked with solid starters, such as Pro Bowlers Zane Beadles (#45, 2010, Broncos), Joel Bitonio (#35, 2014, Browns), and Cody Whitehair (#56, 2016, Bears). Just one of the 13 picks has failed to log at least one season as a primary starter, a rate of 7.7% that is easily the lowest of the round. That would be Forrest Lamp, who was taken with the 38th pick in the 2017 Draft out of Western Kentucky by the Chargers. #12 - Center (63.0% primary starter rate) Picks: 10 Possible seasons: 46 Seasons as primary starter: 29 (63.0% - 2nd) Approximate value (explanation): 208 (4.52 per season - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 3 (6.5% - 5th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl players: 1 (10.0% - 10th) After topping the list in round one, center again appears in the elite ranks, falling just a hair behind its comrades on the interior. Rodney Hudson, taken out Florida State with the 55th overall pick by the Chiefs in 2011, headlines the group. He is responsible for all three Pro Bowl appearances and is fifth in games started among centers since entering the league (111). Erik McCoy, chosen by the Saints with the 48th pick in the 2019 Draft out of Texas A&M, had an elite rookie season to start his career. Stefen Wisniewski (#48, 2011, Oakland) and Ali Marpet (#61, 2015, Tampa Bay) have enjoyed successful careers playing at both center and guard. #11 - Linebacker (47.6% primary starter rate) Picks: 46 Possible seasons: 271 Seasons as primary starter: 129 (47.6% - 3rd) Approximate value: 1,077 (3.97 per season - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 9 (3.3% - 2nd) Pro Bowl seasons: 17 (6.3% - 6th) First-Team All-Pro players: 5 (10.9% - 1st) Pro Bowl players: 11 (23.9% - 2nd) In terms of primary starter rate, there is a steep drop from the No. 2 spot to the No. 3 spot - 15.4%, to be exact. The linebacker position (which now includes both off-ball and "edge" linebackers, but is primarily made up of off-ball players) has been far-and-away the best spot on the defensive side of the ball in the second round. Stars have been aplenty. Five different players have been named a First-Team All-Pro for a top-ranked rate of 10.9%. Eleven have made a Pro Bowl, a 23.9% portion that is second-best overall and tops among defensive positions. Bobby Wagner (#47, 2012, Seahawks) is the cream of the crop, earning five First-Team All-Pro nods and six Pro Bowl trips. Sean Lee, Lavonte David, Eric Kendricks, and Darius Leonard have each been named a First-Team All-Pro one time apiece. Daryl Washington, Zach Brown, Jamie Collins, Benardrick McKinney, Deion Jones, and Jaylon Smith have each made one Pro Bowl. #9 - Offensive tackle (47.5% primary starter rate) Picks: 28 Possible seasons: 158 Seasons as primary starter: 75 (47.5% - 4th) Approximate value: 581 (3.68 per season - 5th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (1.3% - 4th) Pro Bowl seasons: 2 (1.3% - 12th) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (7.1% - 3rd) Pro Bowl players: 1 (3.6% - 12th) The tackle position checks in high on the list, but far behind the two spots on the interior. This is a somewhat disappointing ranking for an offensive line position. Naturally, offensive linemen have an easier time becoming primary starters than players at other positions. Not only are there a whopping five starting spots available for them, but they are capable of rotating between different positions whereas most other players are pigeonholed to one. In addition, teams value continuity upfront, so once a lineman earns a starting spot, he is less likely to be benched in-season than players at any other position. The same applies during one game. Some players at other positions might play regularly but fail to register a start (slot WRs and CBs, rotational DL, etc.) because they rotate in and out. Offensive linemen play from start to finish, so just about any game they appear in is tagged as a start. More spots to be taken, more interchangeability, more emphasis on continuity, playing every single snap - all of those factors come together to give offensive linemen higher primary starter rates than other positions. Just something to keep in mind regarding how offensive line positions stack up in these rankings. Tackle has actually been a somewhat disappointing second round position in spite of that naturally-ballooned primary starter rate. Only a handful of players stand out as true studs - Mitchell Schwartz, Kelechi Osemele, Rodger Saffold, and Donovan Smith. Schwartz is a star, and it's a crime that he has not made a Pro Bowl (he was a 2018 First-Team All-Pro). Smith has been a solid five-year starter for Tampa Bay. However, Osemele and Saffold truly hit their strides after switching to guard. Even the other two players that make up the top-six on the list in terms of AV - Denver's Orlando Franklin and Seattle's Justin Britt - have accumulated most of their value after kicking inside. #8 - Tight end (46.5% primary starter rate) Picks: 19 Possible seasons: 101 Seasons as primary starter: 47 (46.5% - 5th) Approximate value: 249 (2.47 per season - 12th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 4 (4.0% - 1st) Pro Bowl seasons: 10 (9.9% - 1st) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (5.3% - 4th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (15.8% - 6th) Jermaine Gresham carried the tight end group in round one, and now Rob Gronkowski does the same to a substantially greater extent here in round two. He is responsible for all four of the First-Team All-Pro appearances and five of the 10 Pro Bowl appearances. Zach Ertz (#35, 2013, Eagles) and Kyle Rudolph (#43, 2011, Vikings) were certainly hits, earning three and two Pro Bowl appearances, respectively. They each remain with the teams that drafted them and have combined for over 80 touchdowns and 9,000 yards in the regular season. The fact that the tight end position ranks last in AV per season despite having those three studs as a part of a smaller sample should let you know how bad the rest of the group is. Hunter Henry is easily the best player of the bunch, but he has struggled to stay on the field. Outside of Henry, the best names are Vance McDonald, Coby Fleener, and Lance Kendricks, who combine for an average of 24.3 yards per game. Busts such as Jace Amaro, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Adam Shaheen, Troy Niklas, and Gavin Escobar dominate the list. #7 - Wide receiver (42.5% primary starter rate) Picks: 43 Possible seasons: 219 Seasons as primary starter: 93 (42.5% - 6th) Approximate value: 772 (3.53 per season - 6th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (0.9% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 20 (9.1% - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (2.3% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 12 (27.9% - 1st) While the wide receiver position has been a breeding ground for busts in the first round, it has been the absolute best place to find a Pro Bowler in the second. Michael Thomas (#47, 2016, Saints) is the only First-Team All-Pro of the group, but 11 other players have made a Pro Bowl. Those players - Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Randall Cobb, Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, Mecole Hardman (as returner), and Dexter McCluster (as returner). That star-studded list leaves out Pro Bowl snub Robert Woods, as well as potential future Pro Bowlers A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, and Deebo Samuel. Torrey Smith was a second round pick as well, at #58 back in 2011. What a tremendous group. Obviously, names like Devin Smith and Stephen Hill are in there, but that is just part of life beyond the first round. Busts happen. It will be interesting to see if the incredibly deep 2020 wide receiver class carries on this tradition of disappointment in the first round and tremendous value in the second. #6 - Safety (41.2% primary starter rate) Picks: 22 Possible seasons: 102 Seasons as primary starter: 42 (41.2% - 7th) Approximate value: 290 (2.84 per season - 9th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (2.0% - 3rd) Pro Bowl seasons: 7 (6.9% - 4th) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (9.1% - 2nd) Pro Bowl players: 3 (13.6% - 7th) Landon Collins (#33, 2015, Giants) and Budda Baker (#36, 2017, Cardinals) are the lone First-Team All-Pros of this group, while T.J. Ward (#38, 2010, Browns) made one Pro Bowl for the Browns and one for the Broncos. While safety tumbles down on the starter rate list in round two after ranking highly in round one (#3 and #1 among defensive positions), it boasts some of the better star-producing rates in both rounds. #5 - Quarterback (39.7% primary starter rate) Picks: 10 Possible seasons: 63 Seasons as primary starter: 25 (39.7% - 8th) Approximate value: 246 (3.90 per season - 4th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 6 (9.5% - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl players: 2 (40.0% - 4th) Andy Dalton (#35, 2011, Bengals) and Derek Carr (#36, 2014, Raiders) are the headliners, making three Pro Bowls apiece and combining to log 15 seasons as primary starters for their franchises. Colin Kaepernick added a little bit of value early in his career, and Jimmy Garoppolo is on the rise after a long period of clipboard-holding. It's as ugly as you would expect beyond those four - Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg, Brock Osweiler, DeShone Kizer, and Jimmy Clausen were big-time swings and misses. Drew Lock, the 42nd selection in 2019, is looking to turn things around. He heads into 2020 as Denver's starter following a promising five-game stint in his rookie season. Hackenberg will go down as one of the greatest busts in league history. Among the 317 second round picks from 2010-19, Hackenberg is one of just three to never appear in a regular season game along with CB Senquez Gholston (#56, 2015, Steelers) and DT Malik McDowell (#35, 2017, Seahawks). The only other quarterback to never appear in a regular season game among the 176 drafted in round one or round two since 1966 is Gene Bradley, the 37th pick of the Bills in 1980. #4 - Defensive tackle (37.7% primary starter rate) Picks: 28 Possible seasons: 175 Seasons as primary starter: 66 (37.7% - 9th) Approximate value: 509 (2.91 per season - 8th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 5 (2.9% - 11th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (10.7% - 9th) Kawann Short (#44, 2013, Panthers) and Linval Joseph (#46, 2010, Giants) made two Pro Bowls apiece, while Chris Jones (#37, 2016, Chiefs) has made one and is currently one of the most destructive interior pass-rushers in the league. There are not any stars outside of those three, but players like Derek Wolfe, Johnathan Hankins, Eddie Goldman, and Timmy Jernigan have provided many years of quality play. It has been a rough past few years for this position. Only four defensive tackles have been taken in the second round since 2017. Dalvin Tomlinson, the 55th pick in 2017, has been solid for the Giants, but the other three selections over that span have combined for 1.5 sacks over six seasons in the league. #3 - Cornerback (37.6% primary starter rate) Picks: 45 Possible seasons: 213 Seasons as primary starter: 80 (37.6% - 10th) Approximate value: 539 (2.53 per season - 11th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 1 (0.5% - 7th) Pro Bowl seasons: 7 (3.3% - 10th) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (2.2% - 7th) Pro Bowl players: 4 (8.9% - 11th) Cornerback checks in with the second-worst AV average yet again after doing so in the first round. Things got ugly in the latter half of the decade. From 2015-19, just one Pro Bowl appearance was logged (Xavien Howard) out of 28 players. Just seven of the 21 picks (33.3%) from 2015-18 have logged multiple seasons as a primary starter. In addition to Howard, James Bradberry and Ronald Darby were salvaged in 2016 and 2015, respectively. In the first half of the decade, Pro Bowlers Casey Hayward (two-time), Darius Slay (three-time and the only First-Team All-Pro), and Janoris Jenkins (one-time) were picked in the second round. #2 - Defensive end (31.8% primary starter rate) Picks: 25 Possible seasons: 148 Seasons as primary starter: 47 (31.8% - 11th) Approximate value: 473 (3.20 per season - 7th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 5 (3.4% - 9th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 8th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (12.0% - 8th) Only a trio of players to hit star peaks have been found at defensive end - Pro Bowlers Carlos Dunlap (two-time), DeMarcus Lawrence (two-time), and Frank Clark (one-time). Some other solid players have been found, such as Jabaal Sheard, Preston Smith, Vinny Curry, and Markus Golden, but no bona fide stars. Like cornerback, things have gotten ugly during the second round for defensive ends in recent years. Since 2016, the nine defensive ends selected in the second round have averaged 1.9 sacks per season. They have also combined for ugly marks of 2.17 AV per season and a primary starter rate of 16.7%. #1 - Running back (18.9% primary starter rate) Picks: 27 Possible seasons: 164 Seasons as primary starter: 31 (18.9% - 12th) Approximate value: 434 (2.65 per season - 10th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (1.2% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 7 (4.3% - 8th) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (3.7% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 5 (18.5% - 5th) Similar to the first round, the running back position puts up decent numbers in terms of All-Pro and Pro Bowl production, but terrible marks when it comes to primary starter rate and AV per season. Le'Veon Bell (#48, 2013, Steelers) is responsible for both of the First-Team All-Pro appearances and three of the seven Pro Bowls as the group's only multi-time Pro Bowler. Eddie Lacy earned a Pro Bowl nod early in his career before tapering off. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Nick Chubb - taken in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively - have each made one Pro Bowl and head into 2020 as three of the best young backs in football. Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, and Carlos Hyde are also among the successes in this group. This position falls hard due to a huge number of enormous busts in the early part of the decade. When picks have missed, they have missed badly. Of the 17 running backs taken in the second round from 2010-14, only three (Bell, Bernard, Hyde) are still active. Among the other 14 players, 11 saw their careers end with fewer than 20 AV (for reference, that is equal to T.J. Yeldon's career total). Things seem to be taking a turn for the better. In addition to the aforementioned young stars, Miles Sanders, the only second round running back taken in 2019, picked up 1,327 yards from scrimmage for the Eagles in his rookie season. To wrap everything up, here are all of the numbers in one look. It should be noted that there is one player whose numbers are not included in the above chart. That would be the 59th pick in the 2016 Draft, selected by Tampa Bay - Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo. He missed nine field goals and two extra points over 16 games in his rookie season and has not appeared in an NFL game since.