Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs
Jet X Graphic, Getty Images

Michael Nania runs through a first-round NFL mock draft, dropping in statistical anecdotes surrounding each prospect’s skill-set.

Here we are – one day away from the 2020 NFL Draft.

I’ve run through a series of analytics-based mock drafts for the New York Jets, but today, I’ll be switching things up and running through a -round mock draft for the entire league. The selections will be made based on a healthy mix of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do.

Each pick will include at least one positive and one negative statistical tidbit regarding that prospect.

Let’s dive in.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

  • Strength: 141.1 passer rating (NFL) under pressure, best in the nation (minimum 100 pressured dropbacks)
  • Weakness: Will be 23.76 years old on opening Sunday. Comparatively, that is older than Baker Mayfield was when he made his debut (23.44)

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio St.

  • Strength: With 56 pressures on 320 pass-rush snaps, most efficient pass-rusher in the FBS (minimum 200 pass-rush snaps)
  • Weakness: Slightly below-average run-stop percentage (rate of run defense snaps recording a “stop,” which is a negative value play for the offense) of 5.5%

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio St.

  • Strength: 45.5 passer rating allowed, best among Big Ten cornerbacks (minimum 300 cover snaps) and 97th percentile nation-wide
  • Weakness: Poor missed tackle rate of 17.8%

4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

  • Strength: 23 pressures on 74 pass-rush snaps, rank fourth out of 388 qualified linebackers (99th percentile) in pass-rush productivity (per-snap pressure rate with greater weight to sacks)
  • Weakness: 29th percentile among linebackers in run-stop percentage (6.2%), but that is hardly a knock given that he played so much time in the secondary and was not a true linebacker. In fact, it is somewhat impressive he ranked this highly

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovaiola, QB, Alabama

  • Strength: 134.3 passer rating (NFL) on deep throws (20+ yards downfield), third-best in the nation
  • Weakness: Played with projected first-round wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, in addition to DeVonta Smith, who ranked third among FBS wide receivers in yards per route run

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

  • Strength: 91.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield), 12th-best in the nation
  • Weakness: 73.0 passer rating under pressure, 71st in the nation out of 242 qualifiers (71st percentile). Certainly not bad, but well below most highly-drafted quarterbacks

7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

  • Strength: Run-stop percentage of 9.7%, 97th percentile among interior defensive linemen
  • Weakness: While he ranked solidly in pass-rush productivity at 62nd out of 362 (83rd percentile), Javon Kinlaw finished much higher at 15th (96th percentile)

8. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

  • Strength: 90.1 run-blocking grade ranked sixth among FBS tackles
  • Weakness: Grasping at straws here – had a mediocre run-blocking grade of 63.1 in 2018 sophomore season before making a giant leap in 2019 junior season, but that level of progression is more of a positive than a negative. There simply is not a noteworthy statistical weakness to speak of for Wills
  • Blewett’s Blitz breakdown: YouTube, Jet X

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

  • Strength: 40 pressures on 329 pass-rush snaps, ranked at 96th percentile among interior defensive linemen in pass-rush productivity
  • Weakness: Run-stop percentage of 4.8% ranked at the 37th percentile

10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

  • Strength: 9 pressures allowed on 382 pass-blocking snaps, generating a pass-blocking efficiency that ranked at the 92nd percentile among tackles
  • Weakness: Much better zone-blocking grade (91.1) than gap-blocking grade (66.2)
  • Blewett’s Blitz breakdown: YouTube, Jet X

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Michael Nania is one of the best analytical New York Jets minds in the world, combining his statistical expertise with game film to add proper context to the data. Nania scrapes every corner, ensuring you know all there is to know about everyone from the QB to the long snapper. Nania's Numbers, Nania's QB Grades, and Nania's All-22 give fans a deeper and more well-rounded dive into the Jets than anyone else can offer. Email: michael.nania[at] - Twitter: @Michael_Nania
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