First-round NFL mock draft, with analytical strengths and weaknesses for each pick

Michael Nania runs through a first-round NFL mock draft, dropping in statistical anecdotes surrounding each prospect’s skill-set.

Here we are – one day away from the 2020 NFL Draft.

I’ve run through a series of analytics-based mock drafts for the New York Jets, but today, I’ll be switching things up and running through a -round mock draft for the entire league. The selections will be made based on a healthy mix of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do.

Each pick will include at least one positive and one negative statistical tidbit regarding that prospect.

Let’s dive in.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

• Strength: 141.1 passer rating (NFL) under pressure, best in the nation (minimum 100 pressured dropbacks)
• Weakness: Will be 23.76 years old on opening Sunday. Comparatively, that is older than Baker Mayfield was when he made his debut (23.44)

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio St.

• Strength: With 56 pressures on 320 pass-rush snaps, most efficient pass-rusher in the FBS (minimum 200 pass-rush snaps)
• Weakness: Slightly below-average run-stop percentage (rate of run defense snaps recording a “stop,” which is a negative value play for the offense) of 5.5%

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio St.

• Strength: 45.5 passer rating allowed, best among Big Ten cornerbacks (minimum 300 cover snaps) and 97th percentile nation-wide
• Weakness: Poor missed tackle rate of 17.8%

4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

• Strength: 23 pressures on 74 pass-rush snaps, rank fourth out of 388 qualified linebackers (99th percentile) in pass-rush productivity (per-snap pressure rate with greater weight to sacks)
• Weakness: 29th percentile among linebackers in run-stop percentage (6.2%), but that is hardly a knock given that he played so much time in the secondary and was not a true linebacker. In fact, it is somewhat impressive he ranked this highly

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovaiola, QB, Alabama

• Strength: 134.3 passer rating (NFL) on deep throws (20+ yards downfield), third-best in the nation
• Weakness: Played with projected first-round wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, in addition to DeVonta Smith, who ranked third among FBS wide receivers in yards per route run

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

• Strength: 91.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield), 12th-best in the nation
• Weakness: 73.0 passer rating under pressure, 71st in the nation out of 242 qualifiers (71st percentile). Certainly not bad, but well below most highly-drafted quarterbacks

7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

• Strength: Run-stop percentage of 9.7%, 97th percentile among interior defensive linemen
• Weakness: While he ranked solidly in pass-rush productivity at 62nd out of 362 (83rd percentile), Javon Kinlaw finished much higher at 15th (96th percentile)

8. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

• Strength: 90.1 run-blocking grade ranked sixth among FBS tackles
• Weakness: Grasping at straws here – had a mediocre run-blocking grade of 63.1 in 2018 sophomore season before making a giant leap in 2019 junior season, but that level of progression is more of a positive than a negative. There simply is not a noteworthy statistical weakness to speak of for Wills
• Blewett’s Blitz breakdown: YouTube, Jet X

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

• Strength: 40 pressures on 329 pass-rush snaps, ranked at 96th percentile among interior defensive linemen in pass-rush productivity
• Weakness: Run-stop percentage of 4.8% ranked at the 37th percentile

10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

• Strength: 9 pressures allowed on 382 pass-blocking snaps, generating a pass-blocking efficiency that ranked at the 92nd percentile among tackles
• Weakness: Much better zone-blocking grade (91.1) than gap-blocking grade (66.2)
• Blewett’s Blitz breakdown: YouTube, Jet X