Rookie seasons that New York Jets WR Denzel Mims could mirror

What would the ideal rookie season for New York Jets wide receiver Denzel Mims look like? Immediately after Roger Goodell announced the 59th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on the night of April 24, you could feel the ground shake a little bit throughout the Tri-State Area. It had nothing to do with the shifting of plates beneath the Earth's surface. Not at all. Rather, that was just the impact of Jets fans everywhere rejoicing that their team had snatched a tantalizing weapon for Sam Darnold in Denzel Mims. With arguably the thinnest group of outside wide receivers in the NFL, the Jets are going to be counting on Mims to produce right away. Let's take a look at a few rookie seasons from the past that model what an ideal 2020 campaign could look like for Mims. The many steals of 2019 This past season saw a multitude of young wide receivers who were overlooked on draft weekend establish themselves as future stars. Six different rookies at the position averaged over 50 receiving yards per game, and none of them were drafted in the first round. Here are a few who produced at a level that would represent a phenomenal start for Mims. High-efficiency No. 2 option on the outside - D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (Round 2, Pick 64) School: Mississippi Height/weight/forty (percentiles): 6'3⅜"/228/4.33 (86/95/95) Final college season production: 3.7 receptions, 81.3 yards, 0.7 touchdowns (7 games) Similar to Mims, Metcalf slid down the draft board a bit further than expected and was taken in the later portion of the second round. Despite their obvious talent, each player seems to have dropped due to a particular reason that teams may have gotten themselves too hung up on. Metcalf's red flags were injury issues and the unsightly times he posted in three-cone (7.38 seconds, 2nd percentile) and 20-yard shuttle (4.50 seconds, 4th percentile) drills at the Combine. Mims' issue could have been his drop totals, perceived lack of route-running nuance, a combination of both, or something we do not know about. We will see if the 12 teams who took another wide receiver over Mims turn out to be correct, but Metcalf certainly prompted some second thoughts from the teams that passed on him. 16 of 16 regular season games 900 receiving yards (3rd-most among rookie WR) 7 receiving touchdowns (3rd-most) 58 receptions (2nd-most) 11 receptions on 14 targets for 219 yards and a touchdown over 2 playoff games Metcalf was able to produce an efficient 9.0 yards per target (65th percentile among wide receivers with 80+ targets) in a featured role for the Seahawks. He saw 100 targets in his direction, fewer than only Tyler Lockett (110), 66 more than any other wide receiver, and 41 more than any other player. Mims may not rank second on the Jets in targets with Le'Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and Chris Herndon around, but he will likely battle with Breshad Perriman for the lead in targets among outside wide receivers. The Jets would obviously be thrilled if Mims could be have a high-volume rookie season as efficient as Metcalf's. Big-play threat - Darius Slayton, New York Giants (Round 5, Pick 171) School: Auburn Height/weight/forty (percentiles): 6'1"/190/4.39 (47/22/87) Final college season production: 3.2 receptions, 60.9 yards, 0.5 touchdowns (11 games) Slayton made his debut in Week 3 and immediately became a splash play-maker for the Giants. He finished the season ranked first on the team in total receiving yards (740), first in receiving touchdowns (8), and fourth in receiving yards per game (52.9) in addition to leading qualifiers with 8.8 yards per target. Six of Slayton's eight touchdowns were from 20-plus yards out. Perhaps Mims will take on this sort of role to start out, focusing on using his size and speed to win on downfield routes while he develops his short game en route to becoming a more well-rounded No. 1 threat in 2021. No. 1 option on the entire offense - Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins (Round 3, Pick 76) School: Ohio St. Height/weight/forty (percentiles): 6'0⅛"/208/4.35 (34/63/92) Final college season production: 2.9 receptions, 58.4 yards, 0.9 touchdowns (12 games) McLaurin led the Redskins with 125 receiving in the season-opener and would be the team's most featured target by a wide margin throughout the season. He led Washington with 93 targets, 35 more than any other player, and made the most of them. The former Buckeye caught 58 of 93 targets for 919 yards (second-most among rookie wide receivers) and seven touchdowns. McLaurin's average of 9.9 yards per target ranked ninth out of the 52 wide receivers with at least 80 targets. It is highly unlikely that Mims leads the Jets in targets by as wide of a margin as McLaurin led the Redskins last season, simply due to the number of targets he has to compete with. However, if Mims beats defenders frequently enough to the point where he ranks first in targets on a highly balanced passing attack, the Jets offense will probably have enjoyed a great season. With above average options in the slot, running back, and tight end, the pieces are in place for Adam Gase to efficiently spread the ball around to a lot of different weapons if Mims or another outside wide receiver can break out and attract attention on the outside. Historical comparisons Slow start, rapid ascension - Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (2014, Round 2, Pick 53) School: Fresno St. Height/weight/forty (percentiles): 6'1"/212/4.56 (47/74/29) Final college season production: 10.1 receptions, 132.2 yards, 1.8 touchdowns (13 games) Despite astronomical production, Adams dropped into the second round due largely to the belief that Fresno State's offense inflated his numbers. And, yes, it did. The stat-line seen above is simply not of this world. However, Adams would prove to be one of the greatest examples of a monstrously productive system-beneficiary who carried over his dominance to the next level after getting some time to acclimate. This description does not necessarily apply to Mims - but bear with me. Adams did not do much of anything over his first two years in Green Bay. From 2014-15, he averaged 32.0 yards per game while scoring only four touchdowns over 29 appearances. The Packers tried to make Adams a featured part of their offense in his second season, throwing him 7.1 targets per game in 2015 after he saw 4.1 as a rookie, but the effort was a failure. Adams ranked last among 48 qualified wide receivers (80+ targets) with 5.1 yards per target in 2015. Many teams would give up on a player with this level of production after two years and a starter's diet of snaps on tape. Not Green Bay. The Packers stuck with Adams, and in 2016, he broke out. Adams tied for second in the NFL with 12 receiving touchdowns and ranked 26th with 997 receiving yards, more than his first two seasons combined. From 2016-19, no player caught more touchdowns than Adams (40), who also ranked seventh in receiving yards (4,265) over that span. Mims was not a "system player" in college like Adams - in fact, Mims may have battled press coverage more frequently and hauled in fewer uncovered passes than any other highly-drafted receiver in 2020 - but the bottom line here is patience. Yes, the Jets are hoping Mims can make an instant impact. It would not be ideal if Mims started out slowly given the current state of the roster. Nevertheless, if things do not work out for him right away, Mims deserves time to come into his own. Consider this: of the 88 wide receivers drafted in the second round since 2000, only 11 posted over 800 yards as a rookie (12.5%). The average rookie stat-line among the bunch is 30.1 catches for 402.3 yards and 2.6 touchdowns. Consistently solid from Day 1 onward with great longevity - Chris Chambers, Miami Dolphins (2001, Round 2, Pick 52) School: Wisconsin Height/weight/forty (percentiles): 6'1"/210/4.33 (47/68/95) Final college season production: 5.8 receptions, 90.3 yards, 0.6 touchdowns (9 games) Chambers made an immediate impact in Miami and put together a resume with the Dolphins that is nothing to sneeze at. In year one, Chambers caught 48 of 90 targets for 883 yards and seven touchdowns, leading the NFL with 18.4 yards per reception. From there on out, Chambers was a consistently solid producer for the Fins. He played 100 games over seven seasons with the team, missing only one game over his first six seasons until being traded in his seventh. With 405 catches for 5,688 yards and 43 touchdowns, Chambers averaged about 65 catches, 910 yards, and seven touchdowns per 16 games. He is fourth in franchise history in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. If Mims had the same career with the Jets, some fans would likely be underwhelmed that he did not hit a higher peak, but that is a tremendous amount of production to get out of a second-round pick. Although I believe Mims has the potential to be more than a 65/910/7 guy, you will not hear me complaining one bit if he produces at that level in New York over the next seven seasons. Of the 60 wide receivers drafted in the second round from 2000-13, only six (10.0%) averaged 65/910/7 per 16 games over their first seven seasons - Chambers, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Alshon Jeffery, Chad Johnson, and Anquan Boldin. Including those players, only 13 of the 60 players (21.7%) even averaged over 50 receiving yards per game (800 per 16 games) over their first seven seasons. While Mims is extremely talented and has a lot of upside, it always need to be understood how much of a crap-shoot the draft is once you get beyond the top five picks or so. Tempering expectations is important. Be hopeful that Mims can become a star, but if he "only" becomes a solid play-maker, he should still be celebrated and considered a win for the Jets at No. 59.