Statistical goals that Sam Darnold must accomplish in 2020

Sam Darnold should be on his way to stardom if he can hit these statistical benchmarks in 2020. Yards per attempt No one metric is even remotely close to perfect for evaluating quarterback play, but plain-old Y/A (yards per attempt) is one of the more solid passing metrics out there. Darnold averaged 6.9 Y/A in each of his first two seasons, placing him 26th of 33 in 2018 and 23rd of 32 in 2019. I would like to see Darnold push into the top 10-15 range of Y/A. In 2019, this range spanned from 10th-ranked Drew Brees (7.9) to 15th-ranked Matt Ryan (7.3). The NFL average was 7.2. For Darnold to make that leap in Y/A, he will need to improve his completion rate. Darnold ranked 31st with a 57.7% completion rate in 2018 and 24th with a 61.9% rate in 2019. The 2019 league average was 63.5%. Before getting deeper into the subject, it has to be understood that completion rate in itself is an awful stat because of its lack of context. It is far from an indicator of accuracy or performance quality due to the major differences in the types of throws each quarterback attempts. Some quarterbacks attempt a lot of low-percentage/high-upside deep throws and some love the high-percentage/low-upside checkdowns. Some deal with immense pressure and some do not. These factors have an immense effect on completion rate even though they do not have much to do with how well the quarterback is actually playing. So, Darnold ranking so lowly in completion rate does not necessarily indicate his accuracy is truly that bad. However, the number does need to improve for his overall production to reach a viable level. Some of the things that have to change involve Darnold's accuracy in specific ranges and some involve factors that have been completely out of his control. Let's start with the latter. Horrendous offensive line play has laid a huge dent in Darnold's completion rate. Here are 30 qualified quarterbacks in 2019 ranked by the percentage of dropbacks in which they were sacked, hit while throwing, had their pass batted at the line of scrimmage, or threw the ball away. One look at this chart explains a lot about Darnold's lackluster box score stats. Darnold dealt with one of the aforementioned detriments on a whopping 15.3% of his dropbacks, about 1.4% ahead of second-ranked Matt Ryan. That margin is about equal to the distance between Ryan and sixth-ranked Tom Brady. The Jets' goal should be to get that number down to the 11.0-11.5% range. That alone should tack at least a couple more points onto Darnold's overall completion rate. Better protection will be key, but there are things Darnold must do himself to minimize his number of incomplete passes. Deep accuracy is a major key for him. In 2018, Darnold ranked 28th of 33 with an adjusted completion rate (accounts for drops) of 35.0% on throws 20+ yards downfield, while in 2019, he ranked 31st of 35 at 33.3%. Fortunately, Darnold showed some hopeful progress with his deep touch in the latter half of the season. He completed 40.6% of his deep passes from Weeks 11-17, close to the league average of 41.7%. That was a massive improvement over his league-worst 21.1% rate from Weeks 1-10 (six games). Perhaps with some progression, he can get to the 42.0% mark or better in 2020. Improved deep accuracy will also help to boost Darnold's Y/C (yards per completion) average. Darnold has been solid in this area, ranking 15th out of 33 qualifiers over the last two seasons with an average of 11.5 Y/C, but he should be in the top-10 with his gunslinger mentality. In 2019, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo tied for sixth at 12.1. Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Philip Rivers tied for ninth at 11.8. Darnold can certainly get to that range with consistency if he maintains his improved deep performance. He actually averaged 12.0 Y/C as a rookie, which tied Mayfield for 10th that year, but his ghastly completion rate of 57.7% kept his Y/A at 6.9. His completion rate improved to 61.9% in 2019, but his Y/C dropped to 11.1 (20th), resulting in another Y/A of 6.9. Over the final seven games of the season, the stretch in which Darnold's deep accuracy took a big step forward, he averaged 11.9 Y/C. The simple formula for efficient passing is blending consistency (completion rate) and explosiveness (Y/C). For Darnold to become sufficient in both areas, it appears the two most crucial X-factors are the offensive line's performance in protection and the development of his deep accuracy. Let's set some benchmarks. Say Darnold averages 12.0 Y/C (would have ranked 9th in 2019) and bumps his completion rate to 65.0% (would have ranked 14th in 2019). That would put him at 7.8 Y/A, which would have ranked 12th in 2019. Final goals: 7.8+ yards per attempt 12.0+ yards per completion 65.0%+ completion rate 42.0%+ adjusted completion rate on deep throws Offensive line needs to limit "disruption rate" to 11.0-11.5% Interceptions Interceptions have been an issue for Darnold thus far. In 2018, he tossed an interception on 3.6% of his passes, which ranked fifth-highest. He improved to 2.9% in 2019, but that still ranked sixth-highest as the league average dipped to 2.3% (second-lowest all-time behind 2016's 2.26%). Darnold is fourth in total interceptions since 2018 (28). Darnold's main problem in the interception department has been his susceptibility to two awful games per year. He had one four-interception game and one three-interception game in both of his first two seasons. That means exactly half of his 28 career picks were thrown in just four of his 26 games. One or two bad games can tank your season-long interception numbers. The key for Darnold going forward will be avoiding having any of those games in which he goes completely down the drain and starts tossing multiple interceptions. If he can do that, he can be a solid interception-minimizer. Outside of those four games in which he tossed a combined 14 picks, Darnold's interception rate is a respectable 2.0% across his other 22 appearances. Just as Darnold improved his deep accuracy down the stretch in his second season, he also made massive improvements to his ball security. He tossed four interceptions over 267 passes from Weeks 10-17 of 2019, a rate of 1.5%. That's equal to Lamar Jackson's overall 2019 rate, which ranked 10th-lowest. Darnold tossed one pick in four games and zero in the other four, showing that he can keep his overall interception numbers to a strong level when he avoids those disaster outings. A rate of 1.5% would pace Darnold for 8.1 interceptions over 543 passes (his 16-game pace for total pass attempts in 2019). That's a dream goal, but let's shoot for a number in-between there and his career interception rate of 2.0% in non-nightmare games. How about 1.8%? That would give Darnold 9.8 picks over 543 passes, still an enormous step forward. Anything below the league average would be excellent progress, and that will almost certainly happen if Darnold can refrain from having a single game with three-plus interceptions. Realistically, the goal for Darnold should be to land right at that career rate of 2.0% that he owns over 22 of his 26 games. That would pace him for 10.9 interceptions over 543 passes. Goal: Interception rate of 2.0% or lower (dream goal: 1.5%) Touchdowns Darnold's performance in the touchdown column has been better than his performance in the adjacent interception column, but it has still been below average. In 2018, Darnold launched a touchdown on 4.1% of his passes, which ranked 23rd. He pushed that rate up a tad to 4.3% in 2019, good enough for 19th. The 2019 league average was 4.5%. A quarterback's touchdown production is largely contingent on what he does deep in opponent territory. About 44.4% (730 of 1,644) of passing touchdowns over the past two seasons came from within 10 yards of the goal-line. To be a touchdown-throwing machine, two simple things are crucial: getting within striking distance and then taking advantage when you get there. Darnold has been solid at the latter. Over his career, Darnold has thrown 13 touchdowns on 33 passes from the opponent's 10-yard or closer, a rate of 39.4%. That's above the league average of 34.9% over that span and 13th-best out of 37 qualifiers since 2018. In 2019, Darnold tossed eight scores on 19 passes from 10 yards out or closer, a 42.1% rate, eighth-best of 31 qualifiers (league average: 34.8%). While he has effectively taken advantage of his opportunities when getting down there, the major problem for Darnold (and the Jets offense) has been actually getting down there in the first place. The Jets ran only 40 plays inside of the opponent's 10-yard line in 2019, fewest in the league and 13 fewer than any other team. While that number is obviously hampered by the horrors of Luke Falk, it was not much better with a healthy Darnold. From Weeks 6-17, the Jets still ran the second-fewest plays inside of the opponent's 10-yard line (37). Because of the Jets' inability to move the ball, Darnold only threw 4.3% of his 2019 passes in the 10-yard money range, third-lowest out of 31 qualifiers. A lack of throws in that high-percentage area lays a big hit to his overall touchdown production, especially considering he is actually very efficient there. Quite simply, Darnold and the rest of the Jets offense have to do a better job moving the ball over the first 90 yards of the field to create more scoring opportunities within the final 10 yards. The Jets made a league-low 33 red zone trips in 2019. They need to get that number up to around the 2019 league average of 50.8 for Darnold's touchdown production to take off. Obviously, much of that will be on Darnold himself, but the run game (31st in DVOA this past season) needs to better as well. About 55.6% of 2019 touchdown passes came from outside of 10 yards. How has Darnold done there? Dead-on average. In 2019, Darnold posted 11 touchdowns on 421 passes outside of the opponent's 10-yard line. That's a 2.6% rate, equal to the league average. From 11-to-20 yards out, Darnold's 13.9% rate (5 on 36) was a tad above the league's 13.2% average. From over 20 yards out, his 1.6% rate (6 on 386) was barely below the league average of 1.7%. The bottom line: in 2019, Darnold was a very solid touchdown producer within 10 yards and a perfectly average one outside of that, but he and the entire offense did a very poor job of moving the ball well enough to accumulate red zone opportunities, thus dragging his overall touchdown rate to a below-average level. This is yet another area Darnold improved late in 2019. Darnold threw 13 touchdowns over 267 passes from Weeks 10-17, a solid rate of 4.87%. That would give him 26.4 touchdowns over 543 passes (his 16-game pace in 2019). He did that in spite of taking the highest pressure rate among qualifiers (41.9%) and the Jets ranking last in yards per rush attempt (3.3) over that span. The Jets' rebuilt offensive line is certainly not elite, but there is a strong chance it will be much better than the egregiously bad unit that anchored the team in 2019. Let's say Darnold steps a bit further beyond his hot streak touchdown rate (4.9%) and jumps to 5.3%. That's equal to Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston's 2019 rates, which tied them for eighth in the league. It would put Darnold on track for 28.8 touchdowns over 543 passes. Here are some goals for Darnold in 2020 that would allow him to accrue an impressive touchdown total: Overall TD rate of 5.3%+ Make 50+ red zone trips Maintain TD rate of 42.0%+ within opponent's 10 Boost 11-to-20 TD rate to 15.0%+ Boost 20+ TD rate to 2.0%+ Here is a breakdown of how those numbers would lead to Darnold throwing 29 scores over 543 passes. Passer rating / overall Let's bring together all of the goals we have set so far and see where it would land Darnold in 2020. 65.0% completion rate + 12.0 yards per completion for 7.8 yards per attempt 2.0% interception rate 5.3% touchdown rate Over 543 passes with those numbers, Darnold would complete 353 passes for 4,235 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. That's a passer rating of 98.1. Deshaun Watson placed 11th in the league with a 98.0 passer rating in 2019. Here is where some of those numbers would stack up all-time among 23-year old quarterbacks (minimum 250 pass attempts): 29 touchdown passes: 6th (trailing Daunte Culpepper, Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Dan Marino, and Patrick Mahomes) 4,235 yards: 6th (trailing Andrew Luck, Bortles, Stafford, Dan Marino, and Mahomes) 98.1 passer rating: 7th (trailing Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Marino, and Mahomes) 2.0% interception rate: 8th-lowest 7.8 yards per attempt: 14th 4th season with 4,000+ yards and 95.0+ passer rating (Marino, Stafford, Mahomes, Watson) Are these benchmarks too high or too low for Darnold, or are they reasonable? How many do you think he will hit in 2020?