Jets X-Factor’s 2020 New York Jets predictions: Defense/Special teams

The Jets X-Factor crew submits its predictions for the 2020 New York Jets defense and special teams: breakout player, most disappointing player, overall ranking, and more. Check out our 2020 predictions for the Jets offense here. Who will be the Jets' best player on defense? Ben Blessington: Marcus Maye Joe Blewett: Quinnen Williams Michael Nania: Quinnen Williams Robby Sabo: Marcus Maye Sam Crnic: Quinnen Williams With Jamal Adams in the Pacific Northwest and C.J. Mosley opting out of the season, the race for this title is wide open. Both Maye and Williams have opportunities to elevate in a big way this season. Maye has established himself as a solid deep safety, but with Adams' exit, Maye's role will likely be strongly diversified compared to last year. With more snaps in the box and in man coverage, Maye will have more opportunities than ever before to make splashy plays that add to the quiet-but-important impact he already makes. Williams was seen by most evaluators as the most talented prospect in the 2019 draft class. That fact does not evaporate after one season. Williams undoubtedly still has the potential to become one of the best two-way interior defensive linemen in the league. Plenty of star defensive linemen had less-than-stellar rookie seasons. Grady Jarrett had one sack as a rookie, Chris Jones had two, Gerald McCoy had three, and Geno Atkins had three. It's completely normal for a player to struggle in his rookie year - regardless of draft position. Typically, a player's rookie season turns out to be his worst until the very end of his career. Giving up on Williams this early is preposterous, especially considering the subtle progress that he made at the end of 2019. In 2019, the Jets' second-best defensive player was either Brian Poole or Steve McLendon. Statistically, Poole easily had the best 2019 season of any Jets player outside of Adams, leading the NFL in fewest yards per cover snap out of the slot (0.57). McLendon was also fantastic, ranking eighth at his position in Pro Football Focus' run defense grade (81.3), but that is obviously not quite at Poole's position-best level. However, when you dig into the film, it is clear that McLendon's off-the-stat-sheet impact was sizable enough to put his overall performance level in Poole's neighborhood. Both Poole and McLendon should be in the conversation for the "best defensive player" title once again, but there are some reasons for pessimism. Poole is facing a probable downturn due to how much of an outlier his 2019 season was compared to the rest of his career. McLendon is 34 years old and will be competing for a modest slice of the available snaps on a stacked defensive line. Maye and Williams are the clear frontrunners here, but look out for Poole and McLendon. A dark horse to keep in mind: Avery Williamson. Who will be the Jets' best rookie on defense? Ben: Ashtyn Davis Joe: Ashtyn Davis Michael: Ashtyn Davis Robby: Ashtyn Davis Sam: Jabari Zuniga Davis and Zuniga appear to be the sole legitimate candidates here. The only other defensive player drafted by Joe Douglas, Bryce Hall, seems unlikely to get much playing time as he continues his return from an ankle injury he suffered in 2019. Both Davis and Zuniga will likely be seeing sparse playing time to begin their careers. Davis is stuffed behind Maye and Bradley McDougald at safety while Zuniga is a tweener on a defensive line stacked with talent. However, Davis appears to have a better shot of producing right away than Zuniga. While he will not be starting, Davis' strong camp coupled with Gregg Williams' affinity for versatile defensive backs likely means Davis will get a decent amount of snaps per game, possibly a portion of 20-30%. Williams will look to maximize Davis' athleticism with a variety of responsibilities in nickel and dime packages. With chances to blitz, cover man-to-man in the slot, and rotate to different positions in coverage, Davis' role should give him a relatively high number of chances to make big plays even if he does not get much playing time out of the gate. Williams likes to rely on his edge defenders to drop into coverage and twist inside on stunts, usually lining them up in a two-point stance. Zuniga is more fit to playing with his hands in the dirt as a 3-5 technique. So, even though the Jets are starving on the edge, Zuniga's future with the Jets may not be as a true "edge rusher". His fit could be the Kyle Phillips/Henry Anderson tweener role, sliding between the 3-tech, 4i-tech, 4-tech, and 5-tech defensive end positions. As those two players seem poised to maintain their snap portions, Zuniga might have to wait until next year for his shot at regular playing time. Undrafted free agent cornerback Javelin Guidry is a dark horse. He has been taking second-team slot reps behind Brian Poole, so his odds of making the team appear to be strong. A track runner at Utah, his speed gives him intriguing upside as a blitzer and underneath tackler. Who will be the Jets' most disappointing player on defense? Ben: Henry Anderson Joe: Pierre Desir Michael: Pierre Desir Robby: Bradley McDougald Sam: Tarell Basham Joe and I went with Desir. The former Colt may be the man who is most responsible for covering top wideouts such as Stefon Diggs, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham, and Tyreek Hill, putting him in position for a lot of ugly moments. Desir had a very rocky 2019 season in which he ranked at the 8th percentile among cornerbacks with 1.59 yards allowed per coverage snap. He might not have as great of a shot at amounting to a sneaky-good pickup as a large contingent of fans seem to think. Anderson would probably be the winner of this award for the 2019 season. He dropped from 12th among interior defensive linemen in pressures in 2018 (48) to 57th in 2019 (18). Basham will have the responsibility of anchoring the Jets' edge rush alongside Jordan Jenkins. He did a decent job in 2019 as he ranked at the 52nd percentile among edge defenders with a PFF pass-rush grade of 67.1. The optimist would hope that Basham takes another leap forward in his fourth season, but the pessimist could see Basham's 2019 season as a major fluke and expect him to fall down to the basement. McDougald's run defense could be what makes him a disappointment. He ranked at the 16th percentile among safeties with a PFF run defense grade of 52.5 in 2019, struggling with poor decisions, slow reads, and missed tackles. The former Seahawk's coverage is solid, but the Jets may sorely miss Jamal Adams' presence against the run. Excluding rookies - who will be the Jets' breakout star on defense? Ben: Quinnen Williams Joe: Quinnen Williams Michael: Quinnen Williams Robby: Quinnen Williams Sam: Quinnen Williams A clean sweep for Williams. With the braces off, he's ready to dominate. Only one other player comes to mind for me here, and that's Bless Austin. What he accomplished last year was downright incredible. Rookies are not supposed to play well. Rookie cornerbacks have it especially tough. Rookie cornerbacks who were taken in the sixth round, coming off of two ACL surgeries, did not practice until October, and played with no pass-rush or continuity in the secondary? That guy should not be even remotely competent. Yet, Austin was not only competent, he was good. I've repeated my amazement at Austin's accomplishments countless times throughout this offseason. I think his length, instincts, and tackling ability make him a perfect fit for Gregg's defense and a prime candidate to break out in 2020. He has set the foundation to become a solid starter for years to come. I cannot wait to finally see if Austin can live up to the hype. A native New Yorker with a great backstory, he has the makings of a beloved homegrown Jet. Who will be the Jets' best assistant coach on defense? Ben: Dennard Wilson (defensive backs) Joe: Andre Carter (defensive line) Michael: Dennard Wilson (defensive backs) Robby: Dennard Wilson (defensive backs) Sam: Andre Carter (defensive line) Both Carter and Wilson have some moldable clay to work with. Carter's defensive line was dominant against the run in 2019, which he and the unit need to continue, but more is needed in the passing game. Quinnen Williams and Nathan Shepherd hold the bulk of the unit's pass-rush potential. Carter needs to help those two young players (well, Shepherd is almost 27 already) hit their ceilings as rushers. In addition, coaching Anderson back up to his 2018 peaks would be sublime. With a likely role expansion for Maye and the additions of two versatile safeties in McDougald and Davis, the ceiling is high for Wilson's safety group. At cornerback, Wilson's primary tasks will be getting a respectable season out of Desir and fostering a breakout from Austin. He also needs to ensure Brian Poole can maintain his elite play, while he has an intriguing wild card in Quincy Wilson. Will the Jets rank better or worse than #12.5 in defensive DVOA? Ben: Worse Joe: Worse Michael: Worse Robby: Worse Sam: Worse After the Jets ranked 10th in defensive DVOA this past season, all five of us see the Jets defense ranking 13th or worse in 2020. Personally, I still see the Jets defense ranking somewhere in the 12-to-16 range, but this unit definitely saw its ceiling greatly hampered by the back-to-back losses of Adams and Mosley. With those two around, the defense could have had top 5-10 potential, but the unit is now severely lacking star-caliber talent. It is going to take internal progression from players like Austin, Maye, and Williams to fill in the gaps. The Jets should be tremendous against the run once again. Adams-to-McDougald is a big downgrade in that phase, but getting back Williamson's elite run defense makes up for it. All of the other key pieces to the team's elite run defense - McLendon, Williams, Phillips, Maye, Austin, Maulet, Basham, Foley Fatukasi - are back. In the passing game, the Jets will once again have to work around a brutal edge rush, barring an unforeseen breakout. They will need the interior rush - particularly Shepherd and Williams - to step up if they are going to create any pressure beyond the blitz. Speaking of the blitz, that will also probably be less effective without Adams' record-setting abilities as a rusher. Pressure is likely to be a major problem once again, so the Jets need to be solid in coverage. They have the pieces to do it. The cornerback position was excellent in the second half of 2019 led by Austin, Arthur Maulet, and Poole. Maye and McDougald should form a very good coverage duo. Davis and Wilson are useful chess pieces. Williamson is no stud in coverage, but he is okay, which is a large upgrade over the players who were in his shoes last year. Most importantly, Gregg Williams is still around. The veteran coordinator was a mastermind in 2019, overcoming numerous injuries to field a legitimately excellent defense. He took his core philosophies and reshaped them to accommodate the strengths and weaknesses of his roster - which is exactly what all coaches should do. If Williams is as adaptable this year as last, the defense should again outperform its talent level. Who will be the Jets' most effective cornerback? Ben: Brian Poole Joe: Brian Poole Michael: Blessuan Austin Robby: Brian Poole Sam: Blessuan Austin Austin and Poole hoarded the votes. On one hand, you have the young Austin, filled with upside but possessing too small of a sample size to be relied upon. On the other, you have Poole, who is coming off of an elite season that was a noticeable outlier. Desir could make a play for this title, but Austin and Poole certainly appear to have higher ceilings than the soon-to-be 30-year old. Who will be the Jets' best special teams player? Ben: Ashtyn Davis Joe: Ashtyn Davis Michael: Harvey Langi Robby: Ashtyn Davis Sam: Ashtyn Davis The speedy California kid dominated the board. It's easy to imagine the former track star thriving as a cover man for the kickoff and punt coverage teams. Under the tutelage of Brant Boyer, Davis should be able to smoothly acclimate into the system and make plays from the get-go. I mixed things up and went with Langi. He was a sneaky beast on special teams last year. Langi led the Jets in kickoff coverage tackles (7), and, by my tracking, led the team in blocking assists on kickoff returns beyond the 25-yard line (10). It was surprising to see neither of the returners get any love here. Braxton Berrios (punt) and Vyncint Smith (kickoff) were both highly efficient returners last year. Matthias Farley, Daniel Brown, Blake Cashman, and Basham are a few other names to watch out for. Who will be the Jets' most disappointing special teams player? Ben: Kicker Joe: Kicker Michael: Kicker Robby: Kicker Sam: Kicker Clean sweep for the "winner" of the kicking competition. As Sam Ficken and Brett Maher sputter their way through camp, it seems as if the Jets are facing a second consecutive season of poor placekicking due to their ignorance of the position. To quote the late, great Yogi Berra, this feels like déjà vu all over again. Last year, the Jets went into camp with two poor kickers in Taylor Bertolet and Chandler Catanzaro. Once Catanzaro retired and Bertolet was too bad to keep, they went with Kaare Vedvik, who had just been cut by Minnesota after losing out to a kicker (Dan Bailey) who was 31st in field goal percentage the season before. Vedvik was so unimpressive with the Vikings that they were comfortable with cutting him despite having traded a fifth-rounder for him 20 days earlier. That was a recipe for disaster, and disaster is exactly what was cooked up. Things are playing out similarly this year. Ficken and Maher have bad track records, plain and simple. How could a team feel comfortable entering the season with two players who plainly do not execute their very cut-and-dry responsibility at a viable level? Why not take a chance on an undrafted free agent who was effective in college? Why not sign a free agent (Stephen Hauschka is still available) who has a substantially more reliable track record in the NFL than the players on your roster? Joe Douglas deserves a lot of credit for what he has done with the Jets so far, but his handling of the kicker position is worthy of some criticism. Perhaps he deserves some slack for last year considering his late arrival, but there is hardly an excuse if placekicking costs the Jets a win or two this year. Will the Jets rank better or worse than #5.5 in special teams DVOA? Ben: Worse Joe: Worse Michael: Worse Robby: Better Sam: Worse Brant Boyer has set high standards after leading the Jets to the league's best special teams DVOA in 2018 and the fourth-best in 2019. Robby is the only voter who sees the Jets securing another top-five finish on special teams, but we all still see this unit being great. It's just a monumental task to put together three consecutive top-five seasons in any phase of the game. I think this group will be great once again, landing in the 6-to-10 range. Braden Mann should help the punting unit maintain its top-five ranking, while enough pieces are back for the kickoff coverage unit to do the same. Braxton Berrios' consistency should keep the punt return unit afloat, but the Jets will likely miss Vyncint Smith in the kickoff return game as they lack an intriguing replacement option. Placekicking is probably going to an issue, holding back the special teams' overall productivity. Boyer has done a remarkable job with this facet of the team, inheriting a catastrophically poor group back in 2016 and turning it into one of the league's most consistent. It will be fun to watch what he can do with the unique leg of Mann and the blazing speed of Davis.