How absences of George Kittle, Richard Sherman open things up for New York Jets

The San Francisco 49ers will be without arguably their best player on each side of the football, presenting a golden opportunity for the New York Jets to pull off an upset. George Kittle The debate between Kittle vs. Travis Kelce for the title of "best tight end in the world" does not have a definitive correct answer, but I lean towards Kittle. Why? His nasty blocking. Kelce is a solid blocker himself, but Kittle is an absolute game-changer in this facet. In 2019, Kittle ranked second among tight ends in run blocking snaps per game (26.3) behind only Baltimore's Nick Boyle (29.9). He amassed a ton of positive impact over the large workload, posting the fourth-best run blocking grade at Pro Football Focus among qualified tight ends (76.2). Kittle has single-handedly brought widespread attention to a part of the tight end position that has always been extremely crucial but has never gotten enough of a spotlight to match its importance. Now, thanks to Kittle's dominance (and that of Baltimore's group), fans are paying more attention to tight end blocking, and teams around the league are beginning to trend back toward placing a premium value on blocking ability at the position. For the 49ers, Kittle's blocking is an integral cog in their greatest offensive strength. San Francisco's offense is predicated upon a run game that ranked second in yards (144.6 per game) and seventh in DVOA last season. Specifically, that rushing attack is built upon the outside run game. The 49ers ranked third in the NFL with 253 rush attempts (15.8 per game) directed left end, left tackle, right tackle, or right end (in the official play-by-play), and on those runs, they ranked fifth in yards per attempt (5.5). So, the Niners are built around their run game, which is built around their outside run game. And that outside run game is built around Kittle. Take a look at how San Francisco fared on rushes directed outside of the tight end in two games without Kittle last season. Shown is where each number would have ranked among all 32 teams over the course of the 2019 regular season. Without Kittle, the core identity of San Francisco's offense completely evaporates. Kittle is able to do things as a blocker that most tight ends cannot dream of. Watch here as Kittle creates an 18-yard run on a pitch play. Kittle assists the right tackle in pinning the 6-tech inside and then gets out in space, where he takes complete control of the middle linebacker downfield. Raheem Mostert's job is an easy one thanks to Kittle. There are very few tight ends who are capable of manhandling a linebacker in space like that, and one of them is certainly not Jordan Reed, who will be taking Kittle's place on Sunday. Reed is known for his upside as a receiver, but run blocking is not his game. In his most recent season (2018), Reed posted a run blocking grade of 57.9 that ranked at the 44th percentile among qualified tight ends. The 49ers put Reed on the field for only five run plays against Arizona last week, and Reed assured everyone in that short amount of time that he is no Kittle. On this play, Reed looks to seal Cardinals linebacker De'Vondre Campbell at the second level, but as Reed attempts to engage, Campbell easily swats Reed's hand away and eludes him to make the tackle. Reed lines up at the end of the line of scrimmage on this play, to the right of Kittle. Reed leaves the first level blocks to the fullback (Kyle Juszczyk) and pulling left guard (Laken Tomlinson), heading to the second level to look for some work. Reed gets caught in traffic and is late to pick off the safety (Budda Baker), who dodges Reed and gets involved in the tackle on Tevin Coleman. The tenacity from Reed on those two plays is a far cry from what Kittle makes his opponents prepare for. And that's hardly even a knock on Reed - Kittle is just different. His effort level and pure talent as a blocker are in another stratosphere compared to everyone else. With some assistance from his right tackle (Mike McGlinchey) on this play, Kittle seals the outside linebacker (Jaylon Ferguson) to open up room on the edge for what becomes a 41-yard Mostert touchdown. Kittle does a great job getting his inside hand into Ferguson's chest to move him upfield, then readjusts and torques his body to drive Ferguson towards the sideline, seal him out of the C-gap, and define the lane for Mostert. San Francisco's trademark run game is not the same without ferocious #85. Not even close. That's going to be a big deal against a Jets team whose greatest strength is stopping the run - especially considering they might be getting even better in that facet if a healthy Avery Williamson returns. Richard Sherman Sherman elevates his team. When he sits, his defense gets noticeably worse. That simple. It's happened every time he has been sidelined in his NFL career. The 49ers are 0-3 without Sherman since adding him in 2018. In those games, their defense allowed seven touchdown passes and only one interception while recording just four sacks and one takeaway. They gave up 30.0 points per game. Granted, two of those games were in the 2018 season when the 49ers were struggling (24th in defensive DVOA) and the quarterbacks they faced were Philip Rivers, Jared Goff (the elite 2018 versions of those two), and Matt Ryan. Regardless, those numbers are still brutal, even for those great offenses and the poor 2018 Niners defense. In 2018, the 49ers defense allowed 25.5 points per game. Without Sherman, they went 0-2 and allowed 34.0 points per game to the Chargers and Rams, who combined to average 28.3 points per game that season (all of these numbers exclude scores on defense and special teams). So, yes, those 49ers teams were bad and their opponents without Sherman were great, but the results were still worse than expected when he wasn't in uniform. Last year, the Niners lost their only game without Sherman by a score of 29-22 to the Falcons. One of the Atlanta's touchdowns was on special teams, so the 49ers defense actually gave up 23 points, but San Francisco struggled a lot more defensively than that total suggests. The game had a slower pace, as the Falcons ran only nine drives outside of a first half kneeldown. Atlanta scored a touchdown on 3-of-9 drives, a 33.3% rate, much higher than the 2019 NFL average of 21.8%. Thus, San Francisco had a defensive EPA (estimated points added) rating of -7.04, their worst of the season at home (including 2 playoff games). Back in 2017, Sherman missed games for the first time in his Seahawks career, and the team suffered a noticeable performance drop-off. Seattle was 6-3 and allowing 18.3 points per game before Sherman went down. Over the ensuing seven games with Sherman sidelined, the Seahawks went 3-4 and gave up 22.9 points per game. Seattle missed the playoffs and finished 9-7 - it remains their worst record and only non-playoff season since 2012. Sherman is still elite. In 2019, at 31 years old, he allowed the fewest yards per cover snap (0.44) and third-lowest passer rating (46.8) among cornerbacks. Arizona threw only two passes his way over 51 coverage snaps in the season opener, completing one for nine yards (not a first down). Emmanuel Moseley and Ahkello Witherspoon are set to man the outside for San Francisco on Sunday. In the 49ers' lone Sherman-less game last season, the Moseley/Witherspoon duo had a very rough time against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Moseley and Witherspoon combined to allow 14-of-17 passing on targets in their direction for 111 yards, eight first downs, and one touchdown, a massive conversion rate of 52.9%. The Falcons heavily prioritized taking advantage of Sherman's absence. Julio Jones tied his career-highs with 20 targets and 13 receptions while tying for his second-best total with 10 first downs. You can tell why Atlanta insisted on force-feeding Jones the ball. Without Sherman locking down one side, Moseley and Witherspoon looked very exposable. Both players consistently made mistakes that Jones could exploit on a regular basis. Moseley never gets his head turned around on this deep shot to Julio, making it relatively easy for Jones to adjust back to the ball and make a play on it. On this 3rd & 3 play, Jones makes a blindingly quick break on his drag route over the middle, and Witherspoon is too late to react as he gives up the conversion. Moseley backs off prior to the snap to give Jones an enormous cushion on this 2nd & 6 play, and Ryan finds Jones on the quick out for an uncontested first down pickup. On 3rd & 5, Jones runs a shallow crosser from the left slot against Witherspoon, who is in a soft press alignment. Witherspoon is caught by a natural rub from Austin Hooper, allowing Jones to pick up a 15-yard gain on 3rd & 5. No, neither Breshad Perriman nor Chris Hogan is Julio Jones (I don't think they would be even if you mashed all of their best talents into one body), but a lot of the plays that Jones made in his career game against San Francisco weren't necessarily spectacular. He was amazingly consistent at taking advantage of bad cornerback play. Perriman and Hogan can do the same on Sunday - obviously not at Jones' level, but at a level that would be enough to support a confidence-boosting performance for Darnold and spearhead a Jets victory in the process. Last week, Perriman and Hogan would have had much more respectable stat-lines had Darnold executed at a competent level. Yes, they should be considered one of the league's least intimidating duos until proven otherwise, but in their debuts, they could have led a decent offensive performance against a great Bills defense had Darnold made some easy throws and easy reads. I am curious to see what this offense looks like once Darnold plays better. Will the wide receivers really hold the offense back that much if the offensive line is legitimately improved and Darnold gets a groove going? Perhaps not. If the front five can hold up against a great San Francisco defensive line and Darnold can get back to at least his normal performance level, this is a 49ers secondary that appears to be ripe for the picking without its future Hall-of-Famer.