2021 NFL draft film breakdown: North Dakota State QB Trey Lance

Sam Crnic looks at the film behind Trey Lance's sole performance in 2020 and discusses his potential entering the 2021 NFL Draft. One of the largest myths in college football is the statement that smaller school athletes rarely find success at the next level. From Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams, Eastern Washington) to Terron Armstead (New Orleans Saints, Arkansas Pine-Bluff), the NFL is packed with talented FCS players. Perhaps the most interesting FCS player has been Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles, North Dakota State), who hails from the same college as one of the better quarterback prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trey Lance. As a result of the current COVID-19 climate, North Dakota State (NDSU) could only play one game in the fall. This game was against Central Arkansas, who they eventually beat 39-28 in front of 26 NFL scouts from 20 different teams. While they were there to watch various prospects, Lance was the center of discussion. Accounting for four total touchdowns against Central Arkansas, Lance rushed 15 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns while going 15-of-30 in the passing game for 149 yards. For the first time in his collegiate career, Trey threw an interception, attempting 307 passes without one. While one could question his overall stat-line, Lance looked as dominant as ever in various moments during the game. Finishing with a 17-0 record at NDSU, Trey brings a winning mentality to whoever drafts him in 2021. As a team deprived of a winning record since 2015, the New York Jets may look Lance's way if Sam Darnold cannot improve upon his inconsistencies. Using All-22 film, we will take a look at some of the positives and negatives of Lance's skillset in his sole performance of 2020. This is not a complete scouting report of Lance - I'll be digging deeper into his 2019 film later in the offseason - but rather, a focused analysis of his sole showcase in 2020. 2021 NFL Draft Film Breakdowns: Oregon OT Penei Sewell LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase Miami EDGE Gregory Rousseau To view the entire breakdown of Trey Lance through exclusive All-22 game tape, get your Jet X subscription (first month free / portion of proceeds donated to COVID-19 relief). The Good Running through the Power Read Consistently asked to make reads on option plays, Lance exhibits a strong understanding of when to keep the ball and when to hand it off. A talented runner with the ball in open space, Lance can effectively shed tackles and turn on the jets when given open space. Operating in a full house out of the pistol formation, NDSU runs a power read. Faking a handoff to the outside, Lance has to read the defensive end on the left side of the screen (No. 96). As he begins to handoff the ball to the running back, Lance notices the defensive end widening with the back. As a result, Lance makes the correct decision to keep the ball himself and run through the A-gap. No. 96 doesn't have a chance to catch up with the speedy quarterback, allowing Lance to break through the second level. Notice how most of the linebackers were also pulled with the potential outside zone handoff. NDSU does a great job of creating enough space for Lance through play design and blocking, allowing his impressive running skills to shine. NDSU runs another power read here, this time resulting in a touchdown: Instead of the pistol, NDSU operates out of the shotgun to execute the play. Before the snap, Lance motions a weak side wide receiver to receive a potential jet sweep once the ball is snapped. This time, since the jet sweep is going the opposite way as the play before. Lance reads the defensive end to our right (No. 50). As the DE immediately commits to the jet sweep off the ball, this is an easy read for the star quarterback. Lance keeps the ball, traveling through the B-gap to break into the open field. While the SAM (strong side) linebacker (No. 45) looks to be in position to make a play on Trey, the right guard acts as a trap blocker to create a lane for Lance right as the linebacker (No. 45) drops down. Once bursting through the B-gap, Lance breaks two tackles before hitting the open field for the touchdown. In addition, his explosive speed is showcased as he outruns a defensive back down the sideline. Running through the QB Draw and as a scrambler Whether escaping the pocket through a designed run or to evade closing pressure, Lance displays a strong ability to read downfield blocks to find open running room. In a designed quarterback draw, Lance receives a decent amount of help from upfield blockers to maximize the play. Off the snap, the running back locates the blitzing B-gap linebacker immediately, prompting him to lower his shoulder into him to secure the block. In addition, the right guard leverages his defender into the ground, giving Lance a lane to attack through. Once breaking through the second level, Trey finds himself open field. With the single-high safety (No. 26) approaching, the right tackle does a phenomenal job of traveling upfield with Lance to prevent a desirable tackling angle, resulting in a whiff. From there, Lance jukes and stutter steps his way through a couple of defenders to maximize his gain. Throughout the film review, Lance's ability to locate open lanes based on upfield blocking was superb, as he always found a way to gain much more yardage than what was given to him. On this passing dropback, Trey showcases his ability to sense blindside pressure and effectively escape it. Working out of the shotgun formation once again, Lance takes advantage of both linebackers operating in coverage. NDSU helps him see the field here, allowing him to motion the back before the snap. This movement also shifts the right linebacker's stance, letting Lance know there's either man coverage on the back, or that linebacker is playing the flat zone. Either way, there will be space up the middle. In addition, once the ball is snapped, the other linebacker also drops back into a deep zone coverage, uncovering an open middle of the field for a potential scramble. Sensing edge pressure from the blitzing left-side defensive back (No. 33), Lance immediately turns his hips to escape downfield. Thinking it was an easy sack, the defensive back fails to square up to Lance, resulting in a broken tackle. Once approaching the endzone, Trey's receivers start setting up blocks. Lance powers into the end zone and shows a glimpse of his strength as he plows a defender. Deep ball placement Although the two passes below were not completed due to drops by the receivers, Lance showed off his NFL-caliber arm talent with a couple of highly impressive deep bombs. He has a cannon of an arm, but most importantly, backs it up with soft touch and precise placement. This right here is why you draft Trey Lance: Lance hits his receiver on the hands for what should be a 47-yard touchdown (traveling 55 yards in the air), but the receiver drops it. From a singleback alignment, NDSU looks to attack deep against the left sideline. With a single-high safety look, Lance notices one-on-one coverage with both the X and Z wide receiver. With the weak side receiver to the left as his first read, Trey chooses to look that way the entire time. Off the snap, the receiver jab steps to fake inside, then pursues to stem outside. From there, he speeds up, successfully stacking the defensive back, creating separation. This separation prompts Lance to take the shot, and he throws a perfectly-placed ball for a should-be touchdown. Whatever the reason, whether it was losing the ball in the air or losing focus of catching the ball because of impending contact, the receiver fails to take advantage of his opportunity. Regardless, Lance shows a flash of his deep ball accuracy within a well-protected pocket. In addition to throwing deep from the pocket, Lance keeps his eyes downfield when maneuvering out of the pocket, taking chances on the move when he notices advantageous coverages. From the shotgun, Trey sees another single-high safety look, noticing another opportunity to go deep with either the X or Z receiver. Lance looks the strong side receiver's way off the snap (right side), as he runs a streak/go route. With cushion off the line of scrimmage, the receiver stems to the middle, running relatively straight based on a lack of physicality from the defensive back. On Lance's end, he lets the route develop, but also sees interior pressure forming through the A-gap. He steps up in the pocket, finding open space to keep surveying the field. Stepping up and drifting left, Trey launches the ball downfield, placing the ball a bit to the inside. With the single-safety focused underneath and not paying attention to the deep route, this inside placement may have been intentional. About a 58-yard throw in the air, Lance shows off his arm strength but also his accuracy from this distance. The ball is placed well enough for the receiver to shield off the defensive back and make the catch, but he isn't aggressive enough and allows the defender to make a play on the ball. Once again, a tremendous throw by Lance. Making the correct read While these plays were more a result of route running and scheme than making the correct read, Lance still pulls the trigger quickly when an open throw presents itself. A rather wide open touchdown, this play was executed through the successful use of play action. Watch the far-right defensive back's eyes on this play. As a result of the play action, he keeps his eyes locked on a potential run play. Stemming outside, the tight end uses a combination of stutter and jab steps to fake his intentions to block. Biting on this with his primary focus on the running back, the defensive back drops down and leaves the tight end wide open. Immediately noticing the open target on the strong side, Trey bullets an accurate pass for the effortless touchdown. An even easier touchdown pass here, Lance takes swift advantage of a bust in coverage along the right side. Off the snap, Lance fakes a handoff to his running back to pull in the linebackers. While they don't necessarily bite for the run, they lock on to Lance he drifts to the left, allowing his eventual target to slip by unnoticed through the second level. The left tight end shows as if he is setting up to block at the second level, and then turns upfield where he is left uncovered. With a pulling blocker to help shield off the edge, Lance has ample time to survey the field. While this looks like a Cover 3 with how open the tight end is, this could have easily been a linebacker miscommunication. Either way, this well-designed play takes advantage of the right-side cornerback. Playing man on his matchup, there's no one else to cover the tight end running up the sideline. As soon as Trey notices this, he zips a ball to the open man, who runs into the endzone untouched. Not allowing the defense to adjust to their mistake, Trey does an exceptional job of locating the open man at a rapid rate. Arm strength against the sideline A throw most fans tend to underrate, Lance was rather impressive at slinging the ball against the sideline, a worthy look at his overall impressive arm strength. Not only does Lance get off an exceptional throw against the sideline, but does it with pressure in his face. Working from the shotgun, he stays in the pocket for the entirety of the play despite the threat of defenders all around him. Almost immediately, there's pocket collapse from the interior, as the 2i-tech defender wins with hand placement against the left guard. Instead of bailing the pocket and keeping his eyes down, Lance still manages to step into his throw and deliver a pass where only his receiver can catch it. While Lance puts a little too much on the ball, the receiver manages to take in the ball and lands a foot in-bounds. In addition, Trey does a superb job at pointing his hips towards his target with the throw, and not leaving them open. Although that would have been an incomplete pass in the NFL, the receiver on that play is a 5-foot-8 redshirt freshman (Braylon Henderson). If that pass were thrown to a bigger NFL receiver, it would have been on the money rather than looking a bit high. An NFL receiver also would likely have gotten back to the ball quicker and been able to get two feet in-bounds. Nice sling by Lance, even if imperfect. On this next play, a great play design takes advantage of the defensive back's leverage, and Lance makes sure to put the ball in a perfect spot. Lance targets his first read, the slot receiver to his right. His arm strength allows a rather difficult throw to come easy to him. Off the snap, Central Arkansas's defensive line attempts to create early pressure through stunts, in which NDSU picks up with ease. This allows Lance a clean pocket to step into his throw against the sideline. By stepping into his throw, he also turns his hips to lock them onto the target, preventing an overthrow that might result from misaligned hips. The receiver stems outside off the snap, pushing his matchup to open his hips against the sideline. Catching him off-balance by speeding up, the receiver then breaks to the sideline, setting up a throwing lane for Lance. With enough timing and rhythm, Trey completes this pass with ease, nailing the ball right into the receiver's chest. If the pass wasn't strong enough, the defensive back would have had a chance to catch up to the ball and prevent a completion. Trey's arm strength prevents this from being an issue. The Bad Inaccuracy from the pocket One of the most important traits about a quarterback at the professional level is their consistency on an every-down basis. Through a variety of examples, Lance displayed flashes of brilliance, but also holes in his game. This is one of his first passes of the game. It took time for Lance to settle down into a rhythm. Before the snap, Lance sees press coverage against his weak side receiver (right side). As a result, his first read is the tight end running a curl up the middle. Although there are no deep threats with this route combination, the multiple curl routes are a zone-beater; exactly what Central Arkansas runs here. In addition, they run a DB blitz to confuse Trey. Instead of the weak side cornerback pressing the receiver, he blitzes the quarterback and leaves the receiver to be picked up by the safety, something NDSU's offensive line picks up immediately. From there, Central Arkansas runs a Cover 3 look. The weak side safety picks up the receiver who was initially covered by the blitzing DB - this leaves the WR with a huge cushion. There is no chance for the safety to cover the receiver's curl route. Lance processes this, which prompts him to look that receiver's way after the corner blitz. While he makes the correct read based on the defense, he just sails the throw way over the receiver's head. A mixture of poor footwork and mechanics, Lance misses an easy opportunity for a touchdown on this next play. Schematically, this play executes to perfection. Off the snap, Lance fakes a handoff to the back, which pulls both linebackers downward towards the line of scrimmage. With Central Arkansas playing man coverage here, the dropping down of the WILL (weak-side) linebacker gives the eventually-targeted tight end separation as he advances upfield, which Lance immediately notices. Lance also notices edge pressure approaching him from the right side, forcing him to drift left as he throws the ball. As he throws the ball, his feet aren't planted, his hips open up, and he rushes his throwing motion to avoid a hit. While quarterbacks can sometimes pull off an accurate throw while trying to avoid contact, it's rare, and Lance fails to do it here. He clearly overthrows an open tight end in the end zone, killing the drive. In another case of opening his stance, Trey missed an open man on a crosser route. With motion before the snap, based on the defense's adjustment, Lance recognizes man coverage. Off the snap, Trey takes advantage of the man coverage by focusing his eyes on the two crosser routes. While both seem relatively open, he targets the route heading towards the right sideline. With his hips pointed towards the opposite crosser route, his stance is too open to hit the left-side slot receiver. He needs to readjust his hips and get them pointed towards his intended man. Lance fails to do this adequately, but still throws the pass anyway. As predicted, the ball sails too much inside due to his open stance, giving the receiver a slim chance to come down with the ball. Lance's stance didn't open up much in this game, but when it did, he usually became inconsistent with his throws. Approaching the NFL level, Trey needs to work on maintaining proper mechanics at all times regardless of the pressure he is under, as all young quarterbacks do. Inaccuracies on the run Increasingly an integral part of any offensive scheme in the NFL, Lance needs to become more comfortable with throwing on the run to further exhibit his impressive athleticism. Off the snap, Lance fakes a handoff to the running back, the result of the play action called. With the fake handoff, the right defensive end (No. 50) commits to the run, giving Lance the extra step outside the pocket as he runs to the right. NDSU pulls their left guard to complement the scramble to the outside, preventing No. 50 from pressuring Trey. Once scrambling out of the pocket, Lance looks uncomfortable, not settling his eyes on any receiver. He completely misses an open guy in the flat, trying instead to force a throw further up the sideline. While this receiver was also open at one point, Lance completely relies on his arm to make the throw, disregarding his mechanics. While his shoulder was pointed at the target for a brief second, Trey doesn't square his body at all towards the receiver. In addition, Lance slows down his run as he starts his throwing motion, causing his body to be in front of his arm. A combination of both of these techniques forces a high throw on Lance, ending in an incompletion. In another example of Lance running a play action bootleg, he shows similar mechanical issues to the previous play. Unlike other play actions shown in this film review, Central Arkansas looks much more prepared to pressure Lance on this one. While they still bite on the handoff, the second level does a much better job of recovering and covering their man. Once the ball is snapped, No. 45 shoots out like a missile through the NDSU offensive line to pressure Lance. Although he misses the sack, Trey is forced to get rid of the ball. With the play action, the strong-side tight end (No. 87) gets an extra step on his defender, creating separation. Combined with his size advantage, Lance immediately recognizes this as a potential option. Once again, Lance's throw is behind his intended target. While his mechanics look better here, Trey is still relying on his arm much more than his shoulders and body. As a result, the pass will not be as accurate as expected. Lance obviously has the physical traits to make this throw, it's only his technique and mechanics that are holding him back. Interception A case of being too late with the pass, Lance threw his first and only collegiate interception (28-to-0 ratio entering the game) against Central Arkansas. Lance motions his tight end across the offensive line before the snap, and no defender follows him, which prompts Trey to think there's zone coverage. Given one safety has more depth up the field than the other, Lance can notice that Central Arkansas may be disguising their coverage to be Cover 2, when it's actually a Cover 3 look. This is what transpires, but there is a DB blitz thrown in as the right-side cornerback rushes the quarterback, and the strong safety picks up his zone along the sideline. Because of this rotation, the free safety is a tad late to cover the middle of the field, prompting Lance to force it down the middle to the streaking wide receiver. Unfortunately for Trey, the deep middle safety is quicker than anticipated, undercutting the route to grab an easy interception. If Trey hit his man in stride right after the handoff, there's a completion. He also could have led his man outside and away from the safety. Instead, he waits too long and forces the ball into a tight window. Conclusion Despite only playing one game in 2020, Trey Lance has still shown enough to be considered one of the most talented prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft. Considered more of a project quarterback compared to the likes of a more complete prospect like Trevor Lawrence, a well-constructed team looking for a new future at QB will certainly be looking at Lance come April. As low as his floor can be at the NFL level to some scouts, his ceiling is one of the highest in this quarterback class. An effective and exciting runner with the ball in his hands, Lance is one of the most physically dominant quarterbacks to come out of college. With his impressive combination of quick change-of-direction ability and top speed, he will fit in like a glove to any power running offensive scheme. While some of his overall throwing mechanics need more work, Lance is a naturally gifted thrower at every level. He has the physical ability to make any throw on the field and just needs to be developed to the point where he can hit those throws consistently. Lacking the desired amount of anticipation on his throws, it will take time for Lance to become accustomed to the speed at which NFL players process information. In the pocket, Lance can progress through his reads fast enough to make the right decision, but has to improve his overall accuracy. On the run, while there are bright spots, there's much to work on in terms of mechanical consistency. While the Jets have their eyes on Trevor Lawrence, every scout in the country will take a close look at Lance as well. Living under the "generational" prospect that is Lawrence, Lance has a chance to land on a much more talented team, thus having a chance to succeed at a much earlier point in his career. A player of great potential and ability, Lance's NFL success will depend on how well a team can take advantage of and develop his overall skillset. Stay tuned, as later on in the offseason, I'll be taking a look back at Lance's film from his 42-touchdown (28 passing/12 rushing), 0-interception campaign in 2019. 2021 NFL Draft Film Breakdowns: Oregon OT Penei Sewell LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase Miami EDGE Gregory Rousseau