Analyzing the New York Jets’ 4 likely scenarios with the No. 2 pick

With Trevor Lawrence potentially gone, Sam Crnic breaks down the New York Jets' four likely scenarios with the No. 2 pick. It happened, folks. The weeks of counting down to 0-16 have come to a conclusion. The New York Jets finally ended their march toward a winless season, beating the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20. As a result, the Jets lost control of the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft due to SOS (strength of schedule), succumbing to the 1-13 Jacksonville Jaguars. The goal all along for almost every Jets fan was to secure Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. With that out of the picture (for now), Joe Douglas is left with an incredibly hard decision of what to do next. Ohio State QB Justin Fields was once considered the clear No. 2 in the class, but his recent poor performances against Indiana and Northwestern - two ranked opponents - have scouts adjusting their grades on him. The rise of BYU QB Zach Wilson has intrigued the nation, as he has been lighting up the scoreboard and the stat sheet at a level rivaled by few. Or, is Sam Darnold still the answer? A week ago, the Jets' path forward looked like an obvious one. Drafting Trevor Lawrence was a given. After he had just gone 25 of 36 (69.4%) for 322 yards and three total touchdowns in a blowout of Notre Dame on Saturday night, Jets fans couldn't have had much more confidence in their team's future. Now, as we approach Week 16, that confidence has quickly turned to panic. Before everyone downplays the Jets' future success based on missing out on one prospect, it needs to be understood that there are still many intriguing options still available. The Jets did not ruin their future by missing out on Lawrence. Instead, they simply left themselves with harder decisions. These decisions can lead towards the same success anticipated with Trevor or the downward spiral of a missed opportunity that plagues the Jets for a decade. Today, we will discuss every scenario the Jets face with the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. 1. Draft Justin Fields and trade Darnold A former five-star recruit and the highest-rated dual-threat QB in the class of 2018, Fields is one of the two QBs the Jets can draft at No. 2. After Lawrence, Fields seems most likely to be Douglas' preferred selection based on the players he took in the 2020 draft. Looking at Mekhi Becton, Denzel Mims, Bryce Hall and even James Morgan, there's a trend. All of these players were highly regarded for their physical tools. For Becton, the thought of having a 6-foot-7 364-pound eclipse of a man protecting Darnold's blindside was too exciting to pass on. In addition to his height-weight combination, Becton has amazing foot quickness for a man of that stature. The same goes for Mims. Standing at 6-foot-3, Denzel has an exceptional combination of size and speed. Even for Hall, Douglas was impressed by his length and body structure. Bryce's long wingspan allows him to play and look bigger on the field than his actual height (6-foot-1). The only QB selected in Douglas' tenure with the Jets, Morgan could tell us a bit about what Joe values at that position. Continuing the trend of size, Morgan stands at an ideal height of 6-foot-4. As for physical ability, Morgan's arm talent was highly regarded with the ability to make any throw from the pocket. Where Morgan lacked in decision-making and accuracy, he made up in natural talent. All of these draft picks favor natural ability with the confidence to maximize it. While it's a small sample size, Fields perfectly fits into this trend. Capable of making any throw on the field with a strong yet accurate arm, there's no limit to what Fields can accomplish as a QB. As highlighted in my 2019 film review of Fields, the Ohio State QB has so much more to his game than just a talented arm. The guy can create plays out of nothing with his ability to escape pressure. Whether he's running zone reads or creating time for himself out of the pocket to find a wide receiver downfield, Fields is a complete QB from a natural ability standpoint. Alongside his raw skill comes the underlying issues that make Fields much more of a risk than Lawrence. Too many times on film, Fields fails to progress on his reads, not being able to capitalize on crucial opportunities throughout the game. This flaw also leads to interceptions. At the NFL level, over-the-top defenders read the eyes of QBs, allowing them to undercut a potential pass if the QB eyes down a WR too long. This can become a large issue for Justin at the next level if not addressed. Fields' poor performance in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl was a great example of this. Before the snap, Fields sees a single-high safety and assumes a middle of the field closed (MOFC) coverage. Off the snap, you see the safety's hips pointed towards the bottom of the screen as he's running towards the go route. The defense shifts to a two-high look, something Fields doesn't recognize. Staring down his original read instead of surveying the field, Justin forces the ball and ends up throwing the interception. Fields has the arm strength to fit this ball in but lurked the safety too close to the pass with his eyes, staring down the route the entire time. Great QBs use eye manipulation to move defenders out of position. We need to see the same from Justin once he's in the NFL. A player with as low of a floor as his ceiling is high, there's a lot of risk with drafting Fields. Any team that takes the chance on him needs to ensure he has talent around him from Day 1 (which goes without saying for any QB), along with putting him in a scheme that fits his play style. 2. Draft Zach Wilson and trade Darnold The second-best QB in my personal rankings, Wilson is built for the New York stage with the appropriate amount of swagger and playmaking ability. The BYU QB has yet to officially declare for the 2021 NFL draft, but his meteoric rise up the boards here in 2020 surely makes it very likely that he will. Wilson had a season filled with ups and downs in 2019, showcasing tremendous potential, but he was never thought of as a Day 1 or 2 prospect. Fast forward to 2020, Wilson has answered his skeptics with amazing play, easily putting him in the first round discussion. Although a loss against Coastal Carolina put an end to BYU's undefeated season, Wilson has put his team on the map, leading them to a top 25 position in the country. While he is not as gifted as Fields from a physical standpoint, I put Wilson ahead of Justin because of his special playmaking ability and added bonus of terrific deep ball placement. I emphasized this in my first film review of the star QB. It's hard to find a QB as accurate as Wilson in the 2021 class. Time and time again, you see exceptional ball placement on the far side of the field, in between defenders, and on the deep ball. This was obviously a large point of emphasis for Wilson heading into 2020. Not only is he accurate, but Wilson is such a smooth thrower of the ball. Being able to launch the ball with a single flick of the wrist, Wilson makes those off-platform throws look so easy. This clip against Boise St. is a great example of that. Off the play-action bootleg, Wilson drifts to his left while looking for an option downfield. Zach then proceeds to find the out route against the left sideline while throwing off-platform. What makes this play so impressive is Zach's ability to make these on-the-run, across-the-body throws look so simple. He throws like a shortstop, yet only played baseball on a Little League level. Wilson would bring excitement to a Jets offense that has been one of the league's most unpleasant to watch for the past two years. He understands the concept of progressing reads, can travel out of the pocket and knows when to go deep. My largest concern regarding Wilson's game is his propensity for attempting risky throws. Although, in a league that has favored deep, exciting and one-on-one matchup throws, is this really a major concern? This toss from Wilson is a great example of that. Zach takes a chance on the one-on-one matchup and is rewarded with the pass interference call. Knowing the defensive back's back is to the ball, Wilson throws the ball to the WR's outside shoulder to draw contact from the defense. The ball hits the receiver on the hands but he fails to pull it in due to the obvious interference. Although the temptation to keep Darnold around for one more year seems prominent to some, the chance to draft a new QB and reset with a fresh rookie contract at the position is the much smarter choice. Sam's tenure in New York has been nothing more than a failure, and it may be best for both sides to move on. A highly regarded QB out of USC, teams will easily give a high pick for him despite the lack of production. The Pittsburgh Steelers, for example, become an enticing candidate for Sam. As Ben Roethlisberger comes closer and closer to retirement, Darnold has the opportunity to fill in for the future Hall-of-Famer. Not only would the Steelers likely be willing to give up a second-round pick, but they could also toss in a Day 3 pick as well. 3. Keep the pick and Darnold If this is the route, there's one answer at the No. 2 pick: Penei Sewell. A 2020 opt-out, Sewell checks every box at the tackle position, as I touched on in my film breakdown earlier this year. When scouting the offensive line, there's not a single guy in this class who comes close to Penei's effectiveness as both a run blocker and pass protector. This is probably the least likely option to occur. Douglas has been known for gathering as many picks as possible and keeping the No. 2 pick to not take a quarterback just doesn't fit that trend. Regardless, a tackle duo of Becton and Sewell may be too tempting to pass on. Keeping the pick and drafting Penei would be a signal of Douglas giving Darnold another chance. Going into his fourth season, Darnold would get one last year to impress the Jets' brass to earn a long-term deal. Putting a tackle of Penei's skillset on the Jets' line gives them so much more flexibility for the remainder of the draft and will leave Darnold with absolutely no excuses. Already set on QB (for now) and OT, the Jets would have the chance to attack cornerback, edge, WR and even TE in the first 100, improving the defense as well as the offensive skill positions. One of my favorite plays from Penei's last season at Oregon (2019), Penei effortlessly chips a man to the ground and then hustles to make a touchdown-saving tackle off of a turnover. Many more clips of Penei can be found at my 2019 film review of him. A player who won't last out of the top 3 of the 2021 NFL draft, Douglas should be thrilled with landing one of the best tackle prospects in recent memory. The basic rule of building an offensive line is from the outside in, and Douglas would be doing just that. For years the Jets' offensive troubles have stemmed from the lack of push from the offensive line. This has caused an atrocious run game the past two years along with pitiful pass protection to help Darnold. Fixing these two primary concerns could deem Douglas' bet of keeping Sam the right choice and would save the franchise from spending yet another early first-round pick on a QB. 4. Trade the pick and keep Darnold At the very worst, the Jets will possess the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft (that fate was locked up with the Bengals' win on Monday night). Penei Sewell, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields will all be available at that spot and are all dream scenario selections for various teams. What does that mean for the Jets? Trade the pick if you're content with Sam and looking to fill more holes. Looking at the Jets' roster, every position needs an answer this offseason with the exception of left tackle (Becton), center (Connor McGovern), defensive tackle (Quinnen Williams) and safety (Marcus Maye and Ashtyn Davis). Trading the No. 2 pick could give the Jets enough picks to address a huge number of weaknesses. This option becomes especially enticing with you consider how deep this class looks at many different positions. If the Jets decided to trade back and stay in the top 10 range, they could potentially land one of the top 2 cornerbacks in the draft in Patrick Surtain (Alabama) or Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech). Or, on the offensive side, they could land versatile offensive lineman Rashawn Slater (Northwestern) or one of the top three multi-talented WRs in Ja'Marr Chase (LSU), Devonta Smith (Alabama) or Jaylen Waddle (Alabama). Ja'Marr Chase at a later pick in the top 10 would be a terrific opportunity for Darnold's development as a player. The best WR in the 2021 draft class, it's hard to find many flaws in his game. On this play, Chase's aggressive nature grants him separation off the press coverage, giving his QB an easy answer off his dropback. I did a full breakdown of Chase's game earlier this year, reviewing his record-shattering 2019 season. Even if Chase is already off the board, both Alabama WRs in Waddle and Smith present intriguing options for Douglas' efforts to boost Darnold's receiving core. If trading back to the top 20, the Jets have the potential to expand upon their collection of future Day 1 and 2 picks to an even larger extent. This draft appears slated to have a ton of value in the late-first round and early-second round range. CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) has continued to impress scouts on a national level, in addition to edges Kwity Paye (Michigan) and Azeez Ojulari (Georgia). On the offensive side, one of the top three WRs already listed could drop, or even fan-favorite Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota. Trading down from No. 2 presents much more flexibility than any option, but it also takes a large risk on yet again trusting Darnold to develop under a new coaching staff and a (hopefully) better supporting cast. Even if Douglas can maximize the value out of these draft picks, the chance of another year of lackluster QB play from Darnold can put the team in a difficult position at quarterback entering 2022, having squandered the chance to select a great prospect without trading up in 2021. Conclusions Unlike possessing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, there is no right answer here. Every situation presents its own advantages and risks. However, the primary options remain clear. If the Jets decide against Darnold as the future of the franchise, a new QB - either Fields or Wilson - has to be drafted at No. 2 regardless of the value of trading back. If Douglas is willing to bet on Darnold's talent for one more year, he will have a tough decision to make: pair Sewell with Becton or trade down to build a massive hoard of picks? While the Lawrence dream may still be alive for New York, they are no longer in control of their destiny. It's time for Douglas and Co. to switch their focus over to Plan B.