New York Jets free agent profile: Detroit Lions DE Romeo Okwara

Following a breakout 2020 season, Lions edge defender Romeo Okwara is one of the best potential pass-rushing solutions on the market for the Jets. Positives Elite pass-rush production in 2020 A mostly pedestrian defensive end for the New York Giants (2016-17) and Detroit Lions (2018-present) over the first four years of his career after being signed as an undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame in 2016, Okwara came out of nowhere with a massive breakout year in 2020, becoming one of the best pass rushers in football seemingly overnight. Okwara tied for fifth among edge rushers with 61 pressures, doing so at a tremendous level of efficiency as his 14.4% pressure rate ranked seventh-best out of 124 qualifiers at the position. Pro Football Focus saw his production as valid, scoring him with an 85.4 pass-rush grade that ranked ninth-best among qualified edge rushers. Consistency In 14 of his 16 games this past season, Okwara registered a pressure rate above the 2020 positional average for edge rushers, which was 9.7%. He was rarely completely silenced, logging at least two pressures in all but one of his games. Side-to-side versatility The Lions utilized Okwara frequently on both sides of their defense, as he rushed from the left side on 58.9% of his pass-rush snaps and from the right side on 41.1%. He was much more effective from the left side, where his 17.8% pressure rate ranked second-best among all qualified edge defenders behind only Joey Bosa. From the right side, Okwara had a solid pressure rate of 11.6%. Scheme fit Okwara lined up with his hand in the dirt on 81.0% of his snaps in 2020, making him an ideal fit for a Robert Saleh/Jeff Ulbrich defense that calls for hand-in-the-dirt defensive ends to man the edges. Durability Throughout his career, Okwara's durability has been relatively solid. He has played 68 out of 81 possible regular season and playoff games in his career (84.0%). Outside of a 2017 season in which he only played six games due to a knee sprain, he has played 62 out of 65 games (95.4%) across his other four seasons. Okwara played all 16 games in 2020. Age Okwara will not turn 26 years old until June, making him the second-youngest impending unrestricted free agent edge rusher (among those to play 200+ snaps in 2020) behind Carl Lawson. Clean in the penalty department With only six career penalties over 2,521 defensive snaps, Okwara has averaged just 2.4 penalties per 1,000 snaps, barely more than half of the 2020 positional average at EDGE (4.5). Negatives Run defense Okwara put up some brutal numbers against the run this past season. His PFF run defense grade of 45.0 ranked 10th-worst among 124 qualifiers at the position (7th percentile). He collected just 13 run stops (tackles against the run that constitute a poor result for the offense) over 289 snaps against the run, a rate of 4.5%, which placed at the 25th percentile. It's worth noting that Okwara's numbers against the run were actually pretty good prior to 2020. From 2016-19, his composite run defense grade at PFF was 69.9, a number that would have placed him at the 78th percentile among qualified edge rushers in 2020. Tackling Finishing plays is an issue for Okwara, who ranked fourth at his position with 12 missed tackles. It was a problem for him in both phases as he missed seven tackles against the run and five against the pass. Similar to his run defense, it has to be taken into account that Okwara's tackling was not a problem for him before 2020. Okwara had a 21.4% missed tackle rate in 2020 (44 tackles, 12 misses). From 2016-19, he had an 8.7% miss rate (95 tackles, 9 misses). His 2020 season was an enormous outlier The conundrum for teams pursuing Okwara is that his 2020 season looks completely different than what he put on his resume over his first four seasons. Over his first four seasons, Okwara was not even remotely close to as good of a pass rusher as he was in 2020. His pressure rate from 2016-19 was 8.2%, a good deal below the 2020 positional average of 9.7%. His best single-season PFF pass-rush grade over that span was a 58.3 in 2019, which ranked at the position's 21st percentile that year. In 2018, his 50.3 pass-rush grade ranked at the 5th percentile. On the other hand, Okwara wasn't as bad of a run defender and tackler as he was in 2020, so he is due for some improvement in those areas. However, pass rushing is what gets front-seven players paid, and with Okwara's 2020 pass-rush production standing out as such a big outlier compared to the rest of his career, it will be hard for teams to trust that he can maintain the same level of output. Film Okwara's best attributes as a pass rusher are his length and his hand usage. His wins tend to be a result of good technique rather than raw speed, power or athleticism. Standing at six-foot-five and 265 pounds, Okwara boasts 34⅛-inch arms, a number that puts him at the 72nd percentile among edge rushers measured at the NFL Draft Combine. He combines his long arms with savvy hands to make a lot of noise off the edge. From a wide 5-tech alignment on the right side, Okwara attacks upfield before leaning into the left tackle and extending his inside hand as if he is feigning a long-arm attempt. This gets the tackle to shoot his hands, opening up room for Okwara to rip underneath the armpit, bend the edge, and use his length to strip the football loose. A great example of his bread-and-butter. Again as a wide-5 on the right side, Okwara puts forth another rep in which he showcases his ability to draw the offensive lineman's hands and take advantage. Okwara stays patient while bearing down, shuffling his hands to draw the left tackle into throwing his punch first. Once the tackle throws his hands, the window is opened for Okwara to rip through and get home for a strip-sack on Matt Ryan. Okwara takes on star right tackle Ryan Ramczyk here, showing even more savvy hand usage. Before engaging, he pushes off of his first step (inside foot) and works hard to the outside on his second step (outside foot), looking to keep his hips and body away from Ramczyk. This allows him to lean into the rush and throw his hands to draw the punch from Ramczyk while also avoiding contact. Okwara pulls his hand out, leaving Ramczyk grasping at the air, and he bends the edge to get home. Drew Brees is forced to dump the ball off on third-and-12, and the Saints punt thanks to Okwara's win against an elite player. I really can't say enough about how crafty Okwara is with his hands. Once again, watch how he gets the tackle to bite by flashing his hand. With a simple, quick raising of the inside hand, Okwara forces the tackle to open his hips to the outside in anticipation of a power move. At this moment, the gate to the outside is opened. Okwara gets his hand into the tackle's chest, pushes him back a bit, and flattens his angle to get home for a sack on Kirk Cousins. Okwara does a nice job of finishing his rushes in unique circumstances. On this bootleg by the Falcons, Okwara is left isolated against a tight end. Okwara gets his hand into the tight end's chest, moves him inside, and then swims over him to the outside, winning the rep to apply pressure on Matt Ryan. The pressure from Okwara is enough to force Ryan into a slight overthrow on a potential touchdown. Another good finish by Okwara in a unique situation. Faced with a cut block by the left tackle, Okwara leaps over the block, stays balanced, and crashes down for a sack on Ryan Tannehill in the end zone for a safety. Let's get into some of Okwara's issues against the run in 2020. Tackling was one of his main problems. Against a keeper by David Montgomery on a read-option off a direct snap, Okwara is stiff-armed into the Soldier Field grass as he allows Montgomery to pick up eight yards. In addition to the missed tackle, you can also notice Okwara's lack of change-of-direction quickness on that play. He looks very slow to change course as he shifts focus from the handoff to the keeper and attempts to dart inside, revealing a key weakness in his athletic profile. At the Combine, Okwara registered a 17th percentile time (among EDGE in Combine history) in the 10-yard split, a 24th percentile time in the 20-yard shuttle, and a 27th percentile time in the 3-cone drill. He's not an explosive athlete by any means. Matched up on the front-side edge against rookie tight end Cole Kmet, Okwara gets stuck on the block and fails to cover the outside. He gives up the edge to Cordarrelle Patterson, who scores a five-yard touchdown. Lined up as the 9-tech, Okwara works inside and takes on the left tackle, superstar David Bakhtiari. Bakhtiari locks up Okwara, and Aaron Jones zips straight by him for the touchdown as Okwara is unable to shed the block and slow down Jones in any way. Contract estimate If teams believe in Okwara's ability to maintain his 2020 breakout, expect him to receive a multi-year deal averaging somewhere around $15-16 million per year. As we broke down in our look at Carl Lawson, here are the comparable edge rushers to be paid on the open market in recent seasons: Dante Fowler, 2020 (Rams to Falcons): Entering age-26 season, coming off season ranking 11th among EDGE in pressures (67). Signed 3-year, $45M deal ($29M guaranteed) with Atlanta. Za'Darius Smith, 2019 (Ravens to Packers): Entering age-27 season, coming off season ranking 17th among EDGE in pressures (60). Signed 4-year, $66M deal ($20M guaranteed) with Green Bay. Preston Smith, 2019 (Washington to Packers): Entering age-27 season, coming off season ranking 23rd among EDGE in pressures (53). Signed 4-year, $52M deal ($16M guaranteed) with Green Bay. Trey Flowers, 2019 (Patriots to Lions): Entering age-26 season, coming off season ranking 10th among EDGE in pressures (64). Signed 5-year, $90M deal ($56M guaranteed) with Detroit. It will be interesting to see if Okwara's one-year-wonder status and/or run defense struggles lay a hit to his market value. The former shouldn't be an issue; talent-hungry teams have rarely shown restraint when pursuing players who broke out in their contract year. Dante Fowler, Preston Smith, and Za'Darius Smith each had outlier-type seasons in their contract years and were still paid handsomely on the open market. However, Okwara's run defense is an interesting topic in this discussion. Teams pay for pass rushing, not run defense, so they are typically willing to overlook slight run-game deficiencies for top-tier pass rushing, but it seems that Okwara's play against the run was very poor last season, not just "subpar." How will that affect things? All four of the comparisons listed above had strong reputations both as pass rushers and run defenders when they hit the open market. If teams think Okwara's run-game issues in 2020 are a real concern, his value could take a hit. If they think he can get back to where he was in that phase pre-2020, he should remain in the market for a mega-deal. Projecting Jets' pursuit Okwara is a very interesting name in the free agency mix. To me, he seems like a much bigger risk than fellow 26-year-old breakout star Carl Lawson. While Lawson has a worse track record of durability, he has a few key pluses to his resume that Okwara does not. Lawson has gotten after the quarterback at a very effective rate throughout his entire career, while Okwara was below-average until this past season. Lawson complemented his elite pass rushing with decent run defense in 2020, while Okwara's production in the run game was terrible. I also think Lawson is a much more explosive all-around pass rusher. Possessing excellent speed and power, his gifts are tougher to find than Okwara's. Can Okwara maintain the top-tier production of his 2020 breakout season, or is he a one-year wonder? Is his run defense a real issue? Is he athletic and explosive enough to be worth a massive deal? These are the questions teams will ask themselves when thinking about handing a contract offer to the puzzling Notre Dame product. The Jets badly need EDGE help, and Okwara offers the pass-rush production, scheme fit, and youth that they will be looking for in a big-money free agent solution at the position. However, there are enough question marks surrounding him that it seems plausible to think Joe Douglas and company will not see Okwara as their Plan A. Perhaps if other pursuits fall through and Okwara can be had at a non-absurd cost, Douglas will look to him as Plan B or Plan C, but Okwara is a guy that more conservative decision-makers like Douglas will most likely stay patient with rather than pursuing aggressively from the start. Let's not be too hard on Okwara, though. He had a very, very good season as a pass rusher in 2020, and he is entering the heart of his prime. Okwara is most likely going to land a mighty contract, and the team brave enough to sign him to that deal could be getting one of the best up-and-coming pass rushers in football.