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Round 1 mock draft: New York Jets capitalize on trade-up opportunity

Trevor Lawrence, Penei Sewell, Jaycee Horn, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Devonta Smith, Teven Jenkins
Jet X Graphic, Getty Images

Joe Douglas and the New York Jets seize the day by trading up in Jets X-Factor’s newest 2021 Round 1 mock draft.

Just 13 days remain until the 2021 NFL draft officially commences. By now, fans have been drilled with mock drafts, left right and center, but it’s at this very moment when the mock draft should be most prominent.

This mock is all about matching players to team needs and schemes, collecting and sorting through the yearly draft noise, and making reality-based projections over fantastical ideas.

In the mock below, trades are included; and while I already know I’m going to upset a lot of you with one of them in particular (sorry in advance), taking in the entirety of the mock is critical.

Accurately grading prospects in the NFL draft is difficult enough, and predicting where they will eventually land is sometimes even harder, but I’m confident that at least a couple of the unexpected picks will come true come April 29.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Urban Meyer would not have come out of retirement to coach the Jacksonville Jaguars if they did not have the first-overall pick and subsequently could not draft Trevor Lawrence. At least that’s what conventional wisdom would lead one to believe.

This is as easy a pick to mock as it gets, and I’d honestly be shocked at any other outcome. Lawrence has been anointed a blue-chip quarterback prospect since he was a high-school sophomore, and will justly be the first name Roger Goodell calls.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 16: Zach Wilson #1 of the BYU Cougars is tackled near the goal line by Grant Stuard #0 of the Houston Cougars and Gervarrius Owens #32 in the first half at TDECU Stadium on October 16, 2020 in Houston, Texas.
(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

In an interview with Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, after the Sam Darnold trade, New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas told Breer he had his decision-makers watch the top quarterback prospects independently to form their own opinions. Once they got together, the brain trust had two throwers ranked far above the rest of the class.

All signs point to the aforementioned Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson as those to guys. With Lawrence out of the picture, Wilson is clearly the pick. The Jets wouldn’t have traded Darnold if they weren’t extremely confident in Wilson, and the fact that the whole coaching staff signed off on him should have every Jets fan salivating over the future.

3. San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Immediately after trading two future firsts and the 12-overall pick to Miami for No. 3, the smoke about the San Francisco 49ers selecting Mac Jones started leaking. While it’s certainly not what I would do, there’s too much smoke to ignore, and all signs point to Jones being the Niners next signal-caller.

As crazy as it sounds, NFL history is full of wild draft picks that seemed impossible just a few months earlier, and it seems Jones is next on that list.

4. Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB, NDSU

Some believe the Atlanta Falcons will either trade this pick, or take the best player available and stick with Matt Ryan, but I believe they plan to draft Ryan’s heir apparent. Rather than taking the hometown kid, the Falcons opt for Trey Lance, knowing they plan to sit him behind Ryan while he gains experience in practice.

The Falcons’ brain trust was at every top quarterback’s pro day, so I’m not buying the notion that they pass on a quarterback. Plus, new head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot are in it for the long-haul. To me, that screams Trey Lance.

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

There’s been some talk in recent weeks about the Cincinnati Bengals possibly bypassing Penei Sewell in favor of a pass-catcher like Ja’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts. However, that is simply speculation amongst draft analysts, and not coming from any solid reporting.

I still believe the Bengals are going to take Sewell to be their next left tackle, because keeping Joe Burrow healthy is priority No. 1, and the Oregon stud is far and away the draft’s best tackle. Drafting Chase is pointless if Burrow is on the ground before he can throw the ball.

6. Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Miami made sure to get back into the top 10 after trading down from No. 3, clearly showing they want a top non-quarterback, and with Sewell off the board, Chase is the next man up. Tua needs protection and playmakers like any other young quarterbacks, and Chase’s ability to create after the catch and win contested balls will be a big step in accomplishing that goal.

Rashawn Slater is tempting, but I think Miami jumped up to six because they want either Chase or Devonta Smith, and here they get its preferred choice.

7. Detroit Lions: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

The trade offers from teams eyeing Justin Fields will come in droves, but with future draft capital already in hand after the Matthew Stafford trade, the Detroit Lions stay where they are and take Slater to bolster their offensive line. Knowing the Panthers will snag Slater out from under them if they move back, the Lions only have one shot at their top-line target, and that makes a trade back too risky.

Not to mention, Lions GM Brad Holmes was with the Rams when they traded up for Jared Goff and has publicly stated his support for him as their starter. If the Lions are rolling with Goff long-term, they need to protect him.

Justin Fields
Getty Images

8. New England Patriots: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (Trade)

  • Patriots receive: No. 8
  • Panthers receive: No. 15, No. 46, 2022 Round 1

With Slater now gone, the Panthers choose to move back and add premium assets for the future, while also replacing the ammo they just lost trading for Sam Darnold. Meanwhile, the Patriots give up 15, 46, and their first-round pick next year to snag the falling Fields to be their quarterback of the future.

This pick will surely make Jets fans nervous. And yes, this was the “upsetting news” mentioned at the top.

9. Denver Broncos: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

The Broncos would’ve loved to have Fields fall in their laps, but with the Pats sniping him a pick prior, and the top offensive tackles off the board, they instead turn to Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to be their next Roquan Smith. Vic Fangio is one of the best linebacker coaches of the last 20 years, and he’s already shown to value a player with JOK’s skill-set this highly before.

If the quarterback are gone, expect the Broncos add Joker as their ace in the hole against Travis Kelce and Austin Eckler, and expect to see Joker in Pro-Bowls early and often.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

The Dallas defense was, for lack of a better word, abysmal last season. and it’s up to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to right the ship. In his Seattle-inspired Cover 3 press-bail system, Quinn has routinely valued long, aggressive cornerbacks who can play bump-and-run down the boundary, and no one in the class does that better than South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn.

Jerry Jones is going to gush over Horn’s swagger and NFL pedigree, and Cowboys fans will gush over his ability to lock up receivers.

11. New York Giants: Jaelen Phillips, DE, Miami

After signing Kenny Golladay to be his new WR1, New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has all the excuses he needs to draft a lineman in the first round. While his concussion history is certainly a risk, on tape, Jaelen Phillips is the best EDGE in the draft, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will covet his versatility as a rusher from multiple spots.

Daniel Jones has every weapon he could want at this point. The team can’t continue to ignore the defense waiting for him to make the leap.

12. Philadelphia Eagles: Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Whether the Eagles plan to give Jalen Hurts a real shot as their long-term starter or simply plan to use him as the bridge to a 2022 rookie, adding a stellar wide receiver prospect like the “Slim Reaper,” DeVonta Smith, will only help whoever is playing quarterback succeed, now and in the future.

When it comes to Smith, don’t look at the weight; look at the tape and the list of SEC defensive backs he left burnt to a crisp. The Eagles need separators out wide and no one does that better than Devonta.

Kyle Pitts
(Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

13. Los Angeles Chargers: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

The Chargers would’ve loved for Slater to fall to them, and while Christian Darrisaw would be a great consolation prize, replacing Hunter Henry with Kyle Pitts is too enticing to pass up. You can find a starting OT in round 2 this year, but you can’t find another Kyle Pitts.

L.A. is hoping Justin Herbert can go toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes, and if Herbert has any chance to do so, he needs as many weapons as possible.

14. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

That sound you’re heading is all the Matterhorns blasting in Minneapolis because the Vikings are doing backflips that Darrisaw is still available.

Darrisaw is the clear-cut OT3, and the gap between two and three isn’t as wide as it seems. His blend of size, length, power and athleticism may be unmatched by any other player in the class, and he’s the ideal replacement for and honestly upgrade over Riley Reiff.

15. Carolina Panthers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC

  • Patriots receive: No. 8
  • Panthers receive: No. 15, No. 46, 2022 Round 1

After trading back, and adding a two and future one, the Panthers land Alijah Vera-Tucker to mend the wound left by missing out on Slater. Sam Darnold needs protection, and AVT will provide just that, whether it comes at guard or tackle.

All in all, the Panthers get Sam Darnold for free, a future one and a stud lineman in Vera-Tucker, for the eighth-overall pick (Patriots). Not too shabby.

16. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

The Cardinals have a need for a new Patrick after losing Patrick Peterson in free agency. Patrick Surtain II is the best cover-man left on the board. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph loves pattern-matching, and Surtain has been taught it by his pro-bowl father and Nick Saban.

You won’t find many better resumés than that. The NFC West is full of great quarterbacks (and soon to be Mac Jones apparently) so stocking DBs who can cover is always a need.

17. Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Raiders general manager Mike Mayock has prioritized top-quality players from top-quality programs since the day he shook Jon Gruden’s hand for the first time, and with Surtain II just out of reach, Mayock turns to linebacker and ends Micah Parsons’ slide.

Parsons is still raw as a stack-LB, he played RB and DE in high school and has only played the position for two seasons, but his athletic ceiling is sky-high and the Raiders need all the help they can get. There may be some growing pains, but Parsons will find early work as a downhill run defender and attacking-blitzer.

18. Miami Dolphins: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

After giving Tua Tagovailoa a weapon at No. 6, the Dolphins give head coach Brian Flores a weapon at 18 in Michigan’s Kwity Paye. Paye is a literal athletic freak, running a 4.54-second 40-yard dash and a 6.35-second 3-cone at 6-foot-3, 261 pounds. He also backs up those numbers on tape with frightening quickness and explosion.

Flores loves creating chaos with his fronts and this kid delivers in a big way in that exact area.

STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 26: Offensive lineman Teven Jenkins #73 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys stretches before a game against the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 26, 2020 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. OSU won 27-13.
(Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

19. New York Jets: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State (Trade)

  • Jets receive: No. 19
  • Football Team receives: No. 23, No. 86, No. 186

Are we friends again, Jets fans?

In his post-Darnold-trade press conference, Douglas said, “We have to surround our next quarterback with as much talent as possible.” That means trading up to bypass the offensive tackle-needy Bears, Colts and Titans to secure Teven Jenkins.

New York sends Washington picks 23, 86 and 186 for 19. Without many pressing needs, Washington is free to collect picks while moving back four spots. The Jets were prepared to trade up to nine for Jedrick Wills Jr. or Mehki Becton last year, so it’s not out of Douglas’ character to make a move if need be.

20. Chicago Bears: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

The Bears are upset that they got jumped for Teven, but not for long as Caleb Farley is staring them in the face. Farley is far and away the best cornerback in the draft, especially on tape alone. But his recent back surgery and spotty medical history have pushed him down the board.

However, all signs point to Farley making a full recovery, and Chicago couldn’t ask for a better replacement for fellow Hokie Kyle Fuller.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama (Trade)

  • Bucs receive: No. 21
  • Colts receive: No. 32, 64, 2022 Round 3

Does Tampa head coach Bruce Arians care about your feelings? No, no he does not. The Colts, like the Bears, are reeling after missing out on the top tackles and choose to move down instead of reaching, adding picks 32, 64, and Tampa’s 2022 third-round selection.

For the Bucs, they continue to load up for another Super Bowl run behind Tom Brady. Waddle joins Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to form one of the, if not the most dangerous, wide receiver trios in the league.

22. Tennessee Titans: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

With no tackle worth taking on the board, the Titans look to fill the void left by Corey Davis and add Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman to be A.J. Brown’s new running-mate. With Brown drawing attention deep, Bateman will be free to attack over the middle with quickness and route-running, seamlessly sliding into Davis’ former role.

The Titans look poised to take over in a weak AFC South and keeping their offense humming is the best way to make that happen.

23. Washington Football Team: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

  • Football Team receives: No. 23, No. 86, No. 186
  • Jets receive: No. 19

Washington moves down, adds picks and lands the same player at 23 they likely would’ve taken at 19 in Tulsa LB Zaven Collins. At 6-foot-4 and 260, with the speed and coverage ability of a strong safety, Collins is an ideal fit at middle linebacker for Washington.

Head coach Ron Rivera will see shades of a young Luke Kuechly when watching Collins’ tape and fall in love. A team filling its biggest need while adding extra picks can never be described as a bad turn of events.

Azeez Ojulari
(Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images).

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Azeez Ojulari, DE, Georgia

The Steelers love drafting pass rushers in the first round—just look at T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Jarvis Jones and Cameron Heyward. With Dupree heading to Nashville for $16.5 million a season, there’s an Ojulari-sized hole on that defense waiting to be addressed.

Azeez Ojulari is a menace who packs a ton of power into his 6-foot-3, 240-pound frame, and he should find early work in cleanup duty across from Watt.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Moerihg, S, TCU

By this point in the night, Lawrence will already be on a plane to Jacksonville, so now it’s time for the “Teal Curtain,” as the Jaguars were once known as. The Jags defense needs help in almost every spot except defensive end, but their safeties, in particular, are especially awful, and Moerihg is the draft’s best.

Capable of playing free or strong, with a knack for patrolling as a middle-field robber, Moerihg projects to play the Malik Hooker role for Urban Meyer on day one.

26. Cleveland Browns: Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

Larry Ogunjobi was a hugely underrated part of the Browns’ defensive line, and his loss to Cincy is bigger deal than the attention suggests. That said, Browns general manager Andrew Berry has started his second offseason by crushing free agency and has positioned himself to attack his need at defensive tackle with the 26th pick in former Husky Levi Onwuzurike.

Levi O, as he’ll likely be called his whole career, is a “bull-in-a-China shop” penetrator who uses his raw strength and quicks to manhandle blockers, and should excel between Myles Garrett and Sheldon Richardson.

27. Baltimore Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

The Ravens simply have to take the best available wide receiver with this pick, and that’s Terrace Marshall Jr. from LSU. Marshall followed former teammate Justin Jefferson’s footsteps and bounced between outside receiver and slot throughout his career.

That versatility, combined with his route-running and underrated athleticism, is just what Lamar Jackson needs to get this passing game off the ground.

28. New Orleans Saints: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

The Saints’ biggest need is quarterback (despite what Sean Payton thinks about Taysom Hill), and while a surprise sixth first-round quarterback could happen, I also know the Saints love the trenches. A player of Christian Barmore’s caliber is too good to ignore.

Sheldon Rankins is now in Florham Park, and Barmore can fill his role at 3-tech on early downs while playing shade-nose in rush packagers.

29. Green Bay Packers: Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma

The Packers have had a penchant for trading up in the past, but this time they stay put and make arguably the best pick of the whole first round by stealing Creed Humphrey at 29.

Aaron Rodgers needs a new center now that Corey Linsley is snapping for Justin Herbert in LA, and Humphrey is an all-star prospect and perfect scheme fit, who could be one of the best players at his position early on in his career as a Packer.

30. Buffalo Bills: Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami

Even though he might seem to be, Jerry Hughes is not immortal and the Bills need to inject some juice into their pass-rush to take advantage of the leads Josh Allen and the offense will provide. Gregory Rousseau has fallen quite a bit from being the top-five pick he thought he would be when he opted out of 2020.

Still, he’s a first-round talent that Buffalo should be happy to add to its roster. An interior rush-package of Ed Oliver and Rousseau is what nightmares are made of.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

From one Greg to another, the Chiefs add Greg Newsome to fill their need at outside corner and round out their secondary. Twenty-twenty fourth-rounder L’Jarius Sneed played exceptionally well in his limited action and should be primed to be the starting slot corner, but the gap at outside cornerback remains, and Newsome is just the type of experienced player to meet the challenge.

Unless the Chiefs want to have to win a shoot-out every game, they should make sure their pass defense is top-notch.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

  • Colts receive: No. 32, 64, 2022 Round 3
  • Bucs receive: No. 21

Good decision-makers understand value, and few general managers understand value better than Indy’s Chris Ballard. The Colts have a glaring need at left tackle after Anthony Castonzo retired, and while they could’ve taken Leatherwood at 21, it would’ve been a reach.

Here, they get Alex Leatherwood, another two and a future three. Coming from Tuscaloosa, Leatherwood fits Frank Reich’s power scheme and brute mentality like a glove. Making sure Carson Wentz stays healthy should be at the top of the to-do list.

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Pedro
Pedro
3 years ago

When you make a mock with Pitts at 13, Parsons at 17 and Waddle at 21, you’re already so far off the mark that anything else you speculate is pure rubbish. You literally have no clue.

Freedom1789
Freedom1789
3 years ago

I hate this trade idea. Even with 10 picks, every mock draft that I do leaves me short a position of need.

From this article (ignoring scheme fit) we could have Humphrey:
“The Packers have had a penchant for trading up in the past, but this time they stay put and make arguably the best pick of the whole first round by stealing Creed Humphrey at 29.”

“…bypass the offensive tackle-needy Bears, Colts and Titans”
Only one of which actually takes an OT in this mock.

In the mocks I’ve been doing, someone unexpected falls to us with our existing #23. And to have our 2nd so soon thereafter, I often have 5-9 players available; meaning we could be in a strong position to trade back from our 2nd.

Just as having our 2nd one and our two so close together, I’ve been able to do some great work with that #86\87 coming midway between the other picks.

As a new subscriber, I do appreciate all you do; and how everything that is written on this site (including this article) makes me think.

I will dislike any trade-ups that aren’t following a previous stronger trade down.

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Freedom1789

I’m not sure what need can’t be filled. The Jets primary needs: QB, G, CB, OLB. Secondary needs: TE, RB, S, Edge.

So I disagree with you about trading up but agree with your conclusion, that it is beneficial to trade up and then trade down. JD was a mad trader last year. I expect a roller-coaster ride on draft day. I can easily see them trading up from 23 and down from 34.

Freedom1789
Freedom1789
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

I’ve got 10: QB, IOL, LB, OT, CB, TE, WR, S, Edge, RB (11 with Kicker)
Granted, some of these are developmental\improvement\cap moves. More than perhaps others, I am concerned with our depth at LB at all 3 positions too.

R1A: QB
R1B: BPA. On various mocks I’ve gotten IOL (Tucker), OT (Jenkins), Edge (Ojulari), S (Moehrig), but usually LB (Owusu-K).
R2: Target OT (usually Mayfield, sometimes Cosmi) and when not available I’ve Had TE (Freiremuth) or CB (Farley).
R3A: Target IOL (Humphrey) or TE (rarely Freiremuth, usually Jordan)
R3B: Target BPA or LB (usually McGrone sometimes Cox, Werner). But I’ve done WR (Eskridge), TE (Trembel) and Edge (Roche) depending on how things are falling.
R4: BPA fills need (IOL, OT (Hainsey), TE (Long), LB (Surrat), CB (Thomas\Williams), S (Cisco).
R5A: BPA fills need (CB (Thomas or Griffin), IOL (Green), S (Bledsoe)
R5B: CB Sweet Spot (CB (Thomas again, Graham, Williams, Wade))
R6A: I like the idea on this website to go K (McPherson), but in mocks RB (Jefferson\Herbert) or IOL (Anderson\Hill)
R6B: WR Sweet Spot (WR (Smith-Marse, Darden, Stevenson) or developmental Edge Rumph.

If the draft falls perfectly, I can get all 10. But usually I end up dbl dipping in at least one of the BPA especially since we know we won’t have a perfect hit rate.

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Freedom1789

I guess that it’s because I like Fant at RT and think that we’ve got a glut of WRs (C.Davis, Mims, Crowder, Cole, Berrios, Cager, Doctson, V.Smith, J.Smith, Malone, Bailey, Scott & Montgomery is a crowded room). You might say that we need to improve there and I’ll reply that I’m ready to go to battle with the first ten of those. Yes. I’m concerned with depth at LB but as I said, if we draft a Will in the first 3 rounds, we can add veteran free agent or two. I like Freiremuth but he would need to go 34 and that would be a reach. I don’t think he lasts to 66 and that’s where I’m planning on grabbing a potential starting LB (Jabril Cox or Chazz Surratt?).

A comment about the mocks, it’s clear to me that what happens on one site won’t happen on another. It’s fun to play but it’s not real. There are sometimes 30 spot ranking differences between sites for players after round 1.

Freedom1789
Freedom1789
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

Thanks for the conversation. I no longer “hate” this trade idea, though it is still not my preferred path.

My bias is toward having more draft picks, and sometimes I use it as a snap analysis. Using QB as an example (perhaps a unique one though); I hated the trade-up from 6 to 3 to get what I expected to be Rosen (who would have been available at 6). But to your point, the Bills did a great trade up to get Allen.

I’ve been so shell-shocked over the years at our Jets lack of draft picks. I think there is one where we had 1, 3, 6 and 7. But then again, we had 14 and failed to make any real noise. So I am certainly guilty of over-valuing the potential of picks.

The other part of the analysis that was left out in the article, and therefore my thought process, is that it is not just new dominating LG vs players 1, 2 and 3 from the draft. It is dominating LG – overpayed by last season Lewis which equals another (or more) free agents. We get to have our cake and eat it too!

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Freedom1789

Thanks back. Good conversation.

Like I said, I agree with your “don’t trade up if you’re not going to trade down too” concept. I ran a couple of mocks with that in mind and ended up at 12 and also ended up with 12 picks. “Shell shocked” feels like a reaction to a sudden event. No. Jets fans have been conditioned towards pessimism by decades of management incompetence.

I have a lot of trust in Joe Douglas and one thing I can’t shake is how Lewis wasn’t cut after his blow-out with Gase. There’s so much talk about how Gase destroyed Sam. What was his impact on the OL? Was he setting up the line to fail? How deep was his incompetence? I look at PFF ratings for Lewis over the past three seasons:

Year overall / pass / run
2018: 50.9 / 60.1 / 48.9
2019: 56.1 / 68.5 / 48.9
2020: 66.6 / 55.6 / 71.5

According to PFF he shows overall constant improvement over the past two years. He improved massively against the run but there was a sudden decline in pass protection. It’s wishful thinking, but damn! What if a new coaching changes things?

Freedom1789
Freedom1789
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

Interesting PFF numbers for Lewis and analysis. I am hopeful that with new coaching and scheme a few of our players will be better too. I’m with Bart Scott on this year: “Can’t Wait”.

Freedom1789
Freedom1789
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

I am with you on Fant. I can’t wait to see him in a new scheme. I’m not happy with the depth and future Fant cost of next contract if he does what we hope. Ideally, I want to draft a scheme diverse OT, who can play some IOL (a guy can dream).

I am also with you on the WR room. I’d like to have fewer needs elsewhere where we can get a 3rd or 4th rounder to develop and take over as the FA contracts end.

But yes, I am confusing “wants” with “needs”, not just where you specifically pointed out, but elsewhere too.

I agree with you on the mocks. I do get quite different results on specific players when doing this sites and another. And we know nothing ever matches “the experts”. I’ve been running them as monte carlo scenarios so I can see what type of players are available across the mocks. Doing this exercise combined with our conversations has made me more amenable to trade-ups when the last “good” TE or developmental zone IOL is about to go off the board.

On Freiremuth, if he falls to 66 he will be our new Jace Amaro!

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Freedom1789

The backup depth at tackle is definitely something to tackle 🙂 There are day 3 options for that. The same goes for linebacker, safety and tight end.

The “wants” and “needs” thing is important. I actually have three tiers: must-have, should-have and like-to-have. It comes from project management. We definitely can apply it to the team. It helps prioritize things. I think we’re closely aligned.

Must haves: QB, OG1, CB1, LB
Should haves: Edge, TE, RB, S
Like-to haves: K, OL, WR, DT

Freedom1789
Freedom1789
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

Agreed!

Jimjets
Jimjets
3 years ago

Oh, man. If JD ever did anything this mind numbingly stupid I’d break my TV. If anything, TRADE DOWN after we take ZW

Michael Nania
Admin
3 years ago
Reply to  Jimjets

I agree but I also think there’s something to be said for trading up to secure one of the R1 quality offensive linemen, it’s a major weakness on the roster right now and it’s one that greatly affects Wilson’s development, so if they have to toss up a few picks to move up and secure a guy who they think is starter-quality with high long-term upside, I think they should do it. Obviously it’s not ideal, but if priority No. 1 is protecting the new face of your franchise, sometimes you have to be aggressive to make sure you can do it.

Milesahead
Milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  Michael Nania

As much as I like Tevens at 23, no way I’m trading up to get him. He and Vera-Tucker are the two guys I’d want at 23, but only if they fall. We have lots of holes to fill on this roster, and there are other, albeit not as great, OL options in this draft if we miss out on those two.

If Tevens and AVT are gone at 23, trade down.

JetOrange
JetOrange
3 years ago
Reply to  Jimjets

Big Trade Down guy, huge opportunities at 23 & 34 along with being at the top of every round. But I like this

Milesahead
Milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  Jimjets

It’s not Jenkins I object to at 23, it’s trading up for him — or anyone else — that I’m opposed to. Jenkins is perfect for us. Put him beside Big Ticket and let them brutalize and pancake the opposition for the next decade. Just don’t trade up to do it.

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Jimjets

Disagree totally and am on-board with Andrew here. Having looked at the availability of impact guards (those projected for rounds 1-3) I count a total of 5-7. Also, there are no free agent guards. Honestly, I might try to trade up higher, if I could. There are two round-1 guards: Teven Jenkins and Alijah Vera-Tucker. I prefer AVT but this mock has him going to Carolina to protect Sam.

Milesahead
Milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

Jenkins and AVT are imho the best IOL fits for us, but there are other potential alternatives we could look for later if we don’t get them, or look to use 23 for something other than OL, so I don’t see a need to use valuable picks to move up in the first round and to get one.

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Milesahead

That’s the thing, I don’t think so. This is the one position the Jets absolutely need to nail quickly. You can get guards on day 3 but, like I said, I think, after those two are gone, they’re down to maybe 2 or 3 that fit the Jets system. If you watch the draft that the Jetsxfactor guys did the other night (I don’t know how to make a link here but this is the URL: https://youtu.be/mQdtn7SXwow ) at about exactly the 3 hour mark, Joe Blewett talks about “fit” and I buy it. There may be guards but not many that suit what the Jets are trying to do. And they’re later in the draft because, well, they’re just not as good. This is a spot where the Jets must find another dominant player. Football teams win because of dominant lines. Just my opinion, and I see a lot of guys disagree with me, but I’m gung-ho to make an aggressive move to move up.

Milesahead
Milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

Couple things. No argument about wanting AVT or Jenkins at 23. I think we disagree a bit on the next tier of OL talent should we manage to get neither. Trey Smith would be a nice fit beside Becton, and Alex Leatherwood might be a better OG in the NFL than a OT. I’m not that big on Wyatt Davis or Ben Cleveland for us, but many are. A bit later there’s Kendrick Green, and later still, Sadarius Hutchinson.

I think all these guys are athletic enough for LaFleur and Benton’s ZBS, and most of them are versatile, able to play more than one position in the OL.

So, yes, I’d love to land Jenkins or AVT, but I think there’s enough OL and IOL depth in this draft for what we want to do that I wouldn’t rush to get any one guy. I mean, 10 picks sounds like a lot, but like Freedom 1789 below says, there not enough for a roster as shaky as ours.

GoNYGoNYGo
GoNYGoNYGo
3 years ago
Reply to  Milesahead

You’re correct, we disagree on our assessment of the depth. We probably disagree on approach too.
Add Quinn Meinerz to your list. I agree, we remove Davis and Cleveland. What’s left in the top 3 rounds? PFF has Meinerz (ranked 53), Green (61), Smith (86). Adding Leatherwood (39), which I didn’t, makes your argument and we would need to hope he slips to 34. Otherwise we need to reach for the others. As I said, the other area we probably disagree on is approach. I believe the Jets need to accumulate players with all-pro upside. There’s a big drop off from AVT and Jenkins to to the others.

As for the “shaky” roster, it’s already better than last year and I think that everyone forgets that the Jets still have $24M (15M effective – after rookies are paid) in cap space to fill that void. While I wouldn’t want to spend on Gabe Jackson, Richie Incognito or James Carpenter to fill the guard void, we could sign a CB like Richard Sherman, Janoris Jenkins, Malcolm Butler or Brian Poole. (I might sign two). There are RBs, LBs, etc.

BTW, I do agree with Freedom 1789’s conclusion in a reply to him below.

Milesahead
Milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  GoNYGoNYGo

Not sure we disagree much on approach. I mean, we both seem to prioritize OL at 23 or 34. And sure, we all want elite players, but draft picks are lottery ticket crapshoots and just because you draft a guy high doesn’t’ mean they’re going to the Pro Bowl. Agree there’s a drop-off between Jenkins/AVT and say Trey Smith and Leatherwood, but I’m not sure it’s all that big.

I didn’t include good fit OC’s like Humphrey, Meinerz, Dalman, etc. because I’m not sold we’ll look for one this draft. I also lack confidence Humphrey and Meinerz can play anything else. JD seems to like McGovern, who ranked among the best C’s in the league after a slow start, and Feeney and Clark can play C if needed (as could Kendrick Green, I think, if we got him).

Re FAcy…I don’t see any FA OL answers for us worth bringing in. Agree we’d be better off using our cap room on veteran DB’s. Re-sign Poole, then add either Richard Sherman or Steven Nelson, but that still leaves us needing to draft at least one corner prospect, maybe next year’s replacement for Fant at RT, one, maybe two LB’s, a WR, a RB, a potential replacement for Vinny Curry at weakside DE, and a TE or FB, etc…which is why I prefer not to lose picks by moving up. We need all the picks we can get.

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