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Jets-Patriots: Best prop bets to consider

Zach Wilson, Michael Carter, Stats, NY Jets
Zach Wilson, Michael Carter, New York Jets, Getty Images

Best Week 7 prop bets for New York Jets-New England Patriots

The New York Jets (1-4) are headed into Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots (2-4) in a battle of struggling AFC East rivals at 1 p.m. ET.

Something has to give. New York is 0-3 on the road while New England is a shocking 0-4 at Gillette Stadium.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Patriots head into the game as 7-point favorites.

Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game. All listings are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Zach Wilson: Under 226.5 passing yards (-110)

This line is a tad over Zach Wilson‘s season average of 223.4 passing yards per game. Wilson has eclipsed the 226.5-yard mark in two of his five games (Week 1 at Carolina and Week 4 vs. Tennessee).

Bill Belichick’s tremendous track record against rookie quarterbacks in Foxborough makes this a tough benchmark for Wilson to hit. Belichick is 12-0 against rookie quarterbacks at home since taking over as the Patriots’ head coach in 2000. Only four of the 12 opposing starters were able to go over 226.5 yards – Byron Leftwich (2003), Andrew Luck (2012), Ryan Tannehill (2012), and Deshaun Watson (2017).

Since Watson dropped 301 yards on the Patriots in 2017, Belichick dominated the next three rookie quarterbacks who entered his house. Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones combined to average 181.7 passing yards while leading their teams to a grand total of only two offensive touchdowns.

Wilson threw four interceptions in a ghastly performance against Belichick at MetLife Stadium in Week 2. He did manage to throw for 210 yards on 33 attempts but couldn’t scratch the 226.5-yard mark even with a much-improved second-half performance.

After Wilson could only post 192 passing yards against the Falcons’ atrocious passing defense on a neutral site in Week 5, it’s best to expect little from him for the time being.

Michael Carter: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110)

Michael Carter has gone over 44.5 rushing yards only once out of five games this season, but that was against the Patriots in Week 2, when he carried the ball 11 times for 59 yards. New York dropped 152 rushing yards on New England that week.

While Carter is averaging only 33.0 rushing yards per game this season, his increasing workload by the week makes his long-term outlook enticing. He has played a season-high snap portion in back-to-back games, playing 51% of the snaps in Week 4 and 52% in Week 5.

In addition, the Jets will be without No. 3 running back Tevin Coleman, leaving more carries available for Carter and No. 2 option Ty Johnson.

New England’s front-seven can struggle to plug gaps in the run game, as the Patriots rank 21st in Pro Football Focus’ run-defense grade (53.8). Contrarily, the Jets have been a solid run-blocking team that is just waiting to put everything together for a breakout rushing performance. The Jets are eighth in PFF’s run-blocking grade.

The Patriots have allowed the opponent’s top running back to eclipse 44.5 rushing yards in four of their five games this season. The only exception is Mark Ingram and the Texans in Week 4 – but the Texans are ranked 30th in run-blocking at PFF.

Jonnu Smith: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110)

Jonnu Smith is averaging 20.7 receiving yards per game this season and has surpassed 18.5 yards in three of his six games. He is the Patriots’ No. 2 tight end behind Hunter Henry, who is averaging 40.2 yards (Henry’s over-under is 39.5).

The Jets are a great matchup for the Patriots’ tight ends. New York is allowing 70.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which ranks fifth-worst in the league.

Today, the Jets will be even more susceptible to tight ends as they will likely be without star linebacker C.J. Mosley, who is doubtful with a hamstring injury and would be replaced by rookie Jamien Sherwood.

Smith caught 4-of-5 targets for 28 yards against the Jets in Week 2. In his only other career matchup against the Jets, coming in 2018 as a member of the Titans, Smith caught 2-of-3 targets for 29 yards.

The three teams that held Smith under 18.5 yards this year – New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Dallas – all have excellent linebackers. Smith went over 18.5 against Miami and Houston, who are not strong at the linebacker position, as the Jets will be today without Mosley.

Hunter Henry is also a nice over-under play here considering the matchup, but the 18.5-yard mark for Smith is enticingly low for a talented player who gets plenty of time on the field (79 offensive snaps per game over the past two weeks).

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