Advanced metrics are not fond of the New York Jets’ start to the 2021 NFL season
Anybody who has been burdened with watching the New York Jets play football this season is well aware of how bad they have been at the sport. Not only do they have a record of 1-5, but they own a league-worst average scoring margin of minus-15.8 that is on pace to be the worst in franchise history.
It is common knowledge that the Jets are struggling, but a new analytical tier chart shared on Twitter puts into perspective just how astoundingly awful they have truly been.
Kyle Odegard of Compare.bet released a chart that showcased the offensive and defensive efficiency of all 32 NFL teams when filtering out garbage-time plays (any play where the team with the ball has an estimated win probability of over 90% or under 10%).
The chart rates teams’ offensive and defensive efficiency using the metric EPA, short for “estimated points added.” It is a metric that seeks to measure the impact of each play when taking into account down, distance, and field position.
Robert Saleh‘s Jets are in a class of their own, and not in a good way.
NFL team tiers when garbage time is filtered out. pic.twitter.com/IKhWaRxJUE
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) October 27, 2021
For reference: Right equals better offense, Left equals worse offense. Up equals better defense, Down equals worse defense.
New York’s defense is ranked 29th in EPA per play, barely edging out the Lions, Jaguars, and Chiefs, but the Jets’ 32nd-ranked offense is lightyears behind the rest of the league. The gap between the Jets’ league-worst offense and the Lions’ 31st-ranked offense is similar to the gap between Detroit and the 21st-ranked Jaguars.
Get Started: Learn More About Becoming A Jet X Member
The Jets’ advanced metrics line up fairly well with their raw statistics. They are 32nd in points per game (13.3) and 29th in points allowed per game (29.2) – the same rankings they earned in the above chart.
However, the Jets’ raw statistics are not as far behind the rest of the league as their advanced metrics in the chart. The Texans are 31st in scoring with only 0.6 more points per game than the Jets. Even the 30th-ranked Bears are only 1.1 points per game ahead of New York.
It is the garbage-time filter that kills the Jets in Odegard’s chart, separating them even further from the rest of the NFL than their raw statistics have them.
New York has been a good garbage-time team this year, racking up offensive yards and defensive stops near the end of games to make their raw statistics look better despite those plays having little effect (if any) on the Jets’ chances of winning.
When you look solely at plays where the game is still being decided, the Jets have been consistently demolished by their opponents on a play-to-play basis.
