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Jets-Bills: Intriguing receiving yardage over/unders highlight best prop bets

Corey Davis, New York Jets, Bets, Props, Odds, Stats
Corey Davis, New York Jets, Getty Images

Best Week 10 prop bets for New York Jets-Buffalo Bills

The New York Jets (2-6) are coming off of a blowout loss to the Colts, but positive vibes remain on their side thanks to the heroics of backup quarterback Mike White, who will make his third consecutive start.

Coming into New Jersey for their first of two matchups with the Jets this season are the division rival Buffalo Bills (5-3), who are not as high in the AFC standings as they would like to be following an inexplicable loss to the Jaguars.

New York is 2-1 at home with both wins coming over teams that entered the game with a winning record. Buffalo is 2-2 on the road, losing each of its last two road contests. The Bills are 13-point road favorites at most outlets.

Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Corey Davis: Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

Corey Davis will return for the Jets after a two-game absence. New York’s No. 1 wide receiver is hoping to add even more juice to an offense that scored 64 points without him.

Buffalo has not been great at stopping No. 1 receivers, ranking 19th in receiving yards per game allowed to No. 1 wideouts, according to Football Outsiders.

The Bills have allowed at least one wide receiver to eclipse 44.5 receiving yards in seven of their eight games this season. The only team that failed to do it is the lowly Jaguars, who rank 31st in scoring.

Davis is averaging 58.2 receiving yards per game this season. He has gone over 44.5 yards in four of his six games, including each of his last three.

The Jets have been facilitating plenty of success at the wide receiver position since offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur climbed up to the booth in Week 8. They had two wide receivers go over 44.5 yards in each of their past two games.

Michael Carter: Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110)

Michael Carter is averaging 32.9 receiving yards per game this season and has surpassed 28.5 yards in four of his eight games, but he has been producing well above this mark in recent weeks.

Over the past three games, Carter is averaging 66.3 receiving yards per game, seeing 8.3 targets per game and catching 6.0 passes per game. He posted at least 37 receiving yards in all three games.

Carter’s receiving explosion coincided with Mike White’s entry onto the field. White is a conservative quarterback who loves to dump the ball off to his running backs. As long as White is on the field, Carter should hog plenty of targets.

While Carter dipped to only two targets in Week 10, that was mainly because the much-less-conservative Josh Johnson had replaced White for the majority of the game.

White has been on the field for about 110 minutes of game clock this season, and in that time, Carter has recorded 23 targets and 16 receptions. That’s an average of 12.5 targets and 8.7 receptions per 60 minutes.

The Bills will be without starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, paving the way for backup linebacker A.J. Klein to see the field. Klein has the third-worst missed tackle rate among qualified linebackers this season at 25.0%. Look for the Jets to single him out and give Carter plenty of chances to break tackles after the catch.

Michael Carter to have 6+ receptions/New York Jets to win (+1400)

As we got into above, Carter seems to have a good shot of racking up receptions with White in the lineup and Edmunds sidelined, so why not double up and root for Carter to gobble up receptions in an upset victory? At +1400, this seems like a worthwhile parlay.

Jeff Smith Any-Time Touchdown/New York Jets to win (+5000)

Jeff Smith is not non-existent in the Jets’ offense by any means. Over the past two weeks, he averaged 21.0 offensive snaps per game (26% of the team’s offensive snaps).

With the return of Corey Davis canceled out by the absence of Denzel Mims due to COVID-19, Smith’s playing time should remain similar. Mims played 65% of the Jets’ offensive snaps over the two games with Davis sidelined. Davis should eat up those snaps and perhaps a little more, leaving some snaps left for Smith to remain involved.

Plus, the Jets will be without starting tight end Tyler Kroft. His absence should lead to the usage of more 11 personnel (3 WR) and 10 personnel (4 WR) packages, opening the door for more Smith snaps.

Smith has caught 4-of-5 targets for 50 yards and three first downs over the past two games. He was also given one rushing attempt. There were red-zone plays in which Smith was on the field. It is not completely impossible for him to find the end zone.

If you’re feeling especially lucky, you could also go for Smith to score the game’s first touchdown in a Jets victory at +10000.

Considering that Smith is far more involved in the Jets’ offense than most players who have these types of odds in such parlays (the completely uninvolved La’Mical Perine actually has better odds than Smith at +4200), he is an attractive option to take you home for a big-time win.

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