Who can help the New York Jets improve their sure-handedness at WR?
The New York Jets‘ 2021 wide receiver unit was subpar in the “hands” aspect of the position. Whether it came to the easy catches or the tough ones, New York’s wideouts did not get the job done.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Jets’ wide receivers had a 7.1% drop rate, which ranked 19th out of 32 wide receiver units. The group also caught only 42.1% of its targets that were deemed “contested”, which ranked 24th.
Those rankings aren’t necessarily abysmal, but they’re not ideal for a team that is trying to support a developing young quarterback. New York needs to climb into the top-10 of those rankings next year to give Zach Wilson his best chance of succeeding.
That quest will begin on the free agent market.
Looking specifically at the two aforementioned categories – drops and contested catches – which impending free agents would provide the Jets with the most help?
To answer that question, I concocted a stat called “Catches Added” using Pro Football Focus’ drop and contested-catch data. It compares how many contested catches and drops each wide receiver had versus how many contested catches and drops they would be expected to have if they performed at the league-average rate in each category at their reception volume.
Essentially, it reveals each wide receiver’s combined ability to make contested catches and to avoid drops compared to the league average wide receiver.
Let’s use Braxton Berrios – the Jets’ leader in Catches Added – to exemplify how this stat works.
Berrios had one drop and 46 receptions this season. That’s one drop out of 47 catch opportunities, a rate of 2.1%. The league average drop rate for wide receivers in 2021 was 6.6%. That means the league average wide receiver would have had 3.1 drops on Berrios’ volume (6.6% of 47 is 3.1). So, Berrios had 2.1 fewer drops compared to the expectation.
Berrios caught five of his six contested targets, a sterling 83.3% rate. The league average contested-catch rate for wide receivers in 2021 was 46.8%, so if the league average wide receiver caught 46.8% of Berrios’ six contested targets, he’d have made 2.8 contested receptions. Berrios had 2.2 more contested catches compared to the expectation.
Combine Berrios’ plus-2.1 in the drop category and his plus-2.2 in the contested-catch category, and you get a total of 4.3 Catches Added. That number placed Berrios at 12th-best among all wide receivers in the NFL.
From an efficiency perspective, Berrios was even better. Berrios racked up his 4.3 Catches Added over 65 targets, which means his Catches Added boosted his overall catch rate by 6.6%. That ranked sixth-best out of 118 qualified wide receivers.
As a unit, the Jets’ wide receivers ranked 24th in total Catches Added (-4.0). Comparatively, the New England Patriots’ wide receivers led the NFL with 14.7 Catches Added. With support like that, it’s no wonder that rookie quarterback Mac Jones was able to look so comfortable in his rookie year.
Finding wideouts who make the quarterback’s life easier is a must for the Jets in their mission to supplement Zach Wilson’s development. Here are the five best free agent wide receivers (unrestricted only) when it came to Catches Added in the 2021 regular season.
5. A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals
- Catches Added: +2.5 (27th out of 118 qualified WR)
At 33 years old, A.J. Green had an excellent bounce-back season for the Cardinals in 2021. He looked revitalized after showing signs of major decline with the Bengals in 2020.
Green had a better-than-average drop rate (5.3%) but it’s in the contested-catch category where he racked up value here. Green caught 13 of his 24 contested targets (54.1%), grabbing 1.8 contested catches above expectation (23rd among WR).
4. Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
- Catches Added: +3.5 (21st out of 118 qualified WR)
Christian Kirk actually had a drop rate that was worse than average (7.2% with 6 total drops) but his incredible contested-catch production vaulted him up the leaderboard.
Kirk caught 12 of his 17 contested targets, a whopping 70.6% rate. His total of 4.1 contested catches above expectation ranked seventh-best among all wide receivers.
3. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Catches Added: +3.6 (18th out of 118 qualified WR)
Chris Godwin still cracked the top-20 despite missing three games and leaving early in another.
Godwin’s production comes from a healthy blend of contested-catch ability and drop minimization. He caught seven of his 11 contested targets (63.6%) and had only five drops against 98 receptions (4.9% drop rate), giving him 1.9 contested catches above expectation and 1.8 fewer drops versus expectation. There are only seven wide receivers who outperformed Godwin in both categories.
2. Braxton Berrios, New York Jets
- Catches Added: +4.3 (12th out of 118 qualified WR)
Braxton Berrios’ hands were an issue prior to the 2021 season, but he made extraordinary progress in that area this season. He entered the year with career numbers of a 37.5% contested-catch rate and a 10.4% drop rate before lighting it up with an 83.3% contested-catch rate and a 2.1% drop rate in 2021.
Those elite numbers came over a small sample, so it’s realistic to expect some drop-off from Berrios in the future (especially in the contested-catch area). With that being said, he established himself as a substantially improved catcher and should be considered a reliable target going forward.
If the Jets’ priority at the wide receiver position is sure-handedness, they are not going to find many players who were better than Berrios in 2021.
1. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
- Catches Added: +5.3 (7th out of 118 qualified WR)
The clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver on the free agent market, Davante Adams lives up to that billing on this list.
Adams was solid in the contested-catch area, grabbing 14 of his 28 targets (50.0%). But it’s his ability to make the easy catches with astounding consistency that sets him apart.
While making 123 catches, Adams only had four drops, giving him a drop rate of 3.1%. The average wide receiver would have had 8.3 drops over the same volume. Adams’ total of 4.3 fewer drops versus expectation ranked second-best among all wide receivers, trailing only Tyler Boyd of the Bengals (+4.4).
Honorable mentions, notable omission
Here are the top-ranked qualifiers in Catches Added among unrestricted free agents:
- Chris Moore, Texans: +2.5 (29th)
- Russell Gage, Falcons: +1.8 (36th)
- Laquon Treadwell, Jaguars: +1.6 (37th)
- Adam Humphries, Football Team: +1.6 (39th)
- T.Y. Hilton, Colts: +1.3 (43rd)
- Danny Amendola, Texans: +1.2 (44th)
- Zay Jones, Raiders: +1.1 (45th)
- Chester Rogers, Titans: +0.8 (49th)
A notable omission is Mike Williams of the Chargers, who had 1,146 receiving yards, trailing only Adams among unrestricted free agent wide receivers. He placed 64th out of 118 qualifiers with only +0.3 Catches Added. While Williams was good at contested catches (21/41, 51.2%), he had a few too many drops (7 drops, 76 catches, 8.4% drop rate).
Curious how some of the possible trade targets stack up — Ridley and DK have both struggled with drops, but I’m also curious about Jerry Jeudy (might be out of DEN gets Davante) and Tyler Boyd (clear-cut WR3 in CIN)
Metcalf ranks 98th out of 118 with -1.97. Surprisingly he is above-average at drops but it’s the contested catches that get him, he was well below average there this year (9 for 26).
Jeudy is 74th at -0.2. Slightly above average with drops and slightly below with contested.
Boyd is 2nd at +7.9. Outstanding in the drop department with none all year, had the most catches without one. Very good at contested, too (10 for 14)
(Jakobi Meyers is #1)
Thanks!! I’m not too sure how available Boyd would be, but it feels like even if he’s not a true star / alpha / WR1, adding that type of security blanket and leader with an X in the draft would be a decent alternate approach to keep building
I know Braxton a fan favorite and I’d love to see him stay in the green, white & black. But two questions for you experts.
1. What are the odds that the Jets actually resign BB. and…
2. Is that really the best move? Or would signing an Adams or a Godwin make losing the special teams all pro a net gain both salary cap and talent wise? Thoughts?
I think they’ll set a number for him and happily offer that, probably somewhere from 4-6m per year over 2-3 years. Around what you would pay a top-end returner plus a WR3/4 or backup slot. From his perspective, he’ll probably search around for the best deal he can get and take that. If there’s a team out there that projects him to be their starting slot, they’ll pay him more and I think he’ll go there. Because I doubt the Jets value him that way – I think they’ll happily take him back to return kicks and be the WR4/backup slot/gadget guy, but they’re going to want another stud to pair with Moore and Davis in the starting WR trio. Douglas has shown he is a line in the sand guy and will not overpay. I think he will sustain that mentality in negotiations for a player who is probably not a starter.
Berrios is good but I think there he’s become a *little* bit overrated in terms of what his value is to the team. The sky is not falling if he leaves for a deal that is too expensive for what he offers. He’s a good returner and nice backup slot receiver, not Jerry Rice. You try to get him back at a price that makes sense for a player who fits that description and if you can’t get it done, you move on.
Getting a Godwin/Adams type player would be enormous for Wilson. If he can go into year 2 with Star WR, Moore, Davis, and a good TE, he’ll be an amazing position to succeed. I think finding another big-time starting receiver is going to be their primary goal offensively, whether that be through free agency, trade, or the draft.
Yeah, you’re probably right. The one thing though that general managers and numbers people sometimes overlook is chemistry. Think of Sanchez losing Braylon Edwards and Cotchery. They weren’t world beaters and Sanchez isn’t even close to having the potential Zach has. But they had that subtle thing where the QB trusts what the receiver is going to do. I feel Zach had that with Davis and Braxton this year. And started having it with Moore before he got hurt. He didn’t have it with Mims (for good reason!) or any of the many “Smith” back up receivers. For that alone I wish the Jets would consider paying at least a little more for Braxton. But I know it may not go that way.
Agreed, chemistry, likes it here, good team guy etc. Slightly overpay if needed.
I’d miss him and HATE to see NE snatch him up. You know with Josh McDaniels he becomes Julian Edelman. You know it. If we lose him we HAVE to draft someone who can return kicks and punts and do it well.
One philosophy is to buy the defense and draft the offense. If they do that they could trade down and get the C and one of the top WR’s and two of the TE’s. And more.
Personal opinion is they do sign a vet and I think it’s one that plays more slot and can kick outside. A reciever they can switch around with Moore and move the two inside and outside, Davis is more a pure outside reciever. Last off season GM Joe Kicked the tires on adding Juju with Davis and struck out. I think he swings for Schuster again.
My concern with Godwin is he’s Corey Davis 2.0. Where his production is tied to being opposite Mike Evans. And paying him to be a true number 1 is a big risk. What are your thoughts on that?
I agree with you on many of these guys who are benefitting from being with a true #1. I do think Corey Davis will improve and don’t think they will spend big for a WR. I think they focus on the draft for that, and try to sign a solid WR to join the group. I’ll be interested to see what the market is for Crowder. If it’s soft he might be worth bringing back?
Agree about Crowder. My personal preference is to load up on both sides of the line and a CB with the first five picks and sign TE and safeties in FA which comes first.
Then again, let’s see who they like while coaching the senior bowl.
I have flopped all year on what to do, and after watching the last few weeks my feeling is load up on offense. The Bills had the best D by most statistical measures and look what happened to them. NE was the second rated D and they played the worst defensive game possible. Get 2 WR’s, 2TE’s another OL, maybe they get a CB or LB. I wouldn’t go wild on the D right now. Get the offense going first. I think 3 out of their first 4 picks need to be offense including WR,TE and OL. I’d take 2 At WR or TE.
Agree about the offense. It’s all about helping Zach progress!
I agree. If we don’t put support around Wilson and in the position to succeed then we may ruin him too. Obv we can made some defensive adds, but that shouldn’t be the priority.
Definitely a valid concern but I think Godwin is clearly a better player than Davis was, and he also has a much more consistent track record of production going into free agency. Three seasons in a row with 70+ YPG to Davis’ one. Godwin has also had very low drop rates and very high contested catch rates throughout his entire career so things *should* translate (key word is should, as Davis also had good numbers in those areas but fell off a cliff in 2021).
Your concern is valid but I do think regardless of the supporting cast Godwin enters free agency with a much better and more consistent resume than Davis. However he’s also going to be paid a lot more than Davis so the standards will be very high, and whether he can match *those* expectations is a legitimate concern.
With Godwin it all depends on health and cost. One benefit is he likes to operate of the slot which fits perfect with Davis and Moore and gives some flexibility.