This element of Zach Wilson’s game plays a huge role in determining how well he plays overall
Zach Wilson‘s rookie season with the New York Jets was extremely erratic. Identifying patterns in his play is a difficult proposition.
Sometimes, Wilson would receive fairly good support from his teammates but still hang them out to dry. His Week 5 game against the Falcons was an example of this. Receivers were getting themselves open, but Wilson missed one wide-open target after another as he failed to capitalize on the opportunity to win a close game.
Other times, Wilson was thrown into hellish situations and performed well in spite of the circumstances. His strong late-season performances against the Jaguars and Buccaneers came at a time when he was surrounded by backups due to an onslaught of injuries.
The moral of the story is that Wilson was incredibly unpredictable in 2021. There aren’t many identifiable patterns in which you can say, “Wilson tended to struggle when he did this,” or “Wilson tended to play well when he did this.”
That is, except for this one particular factor.
After digging deep through Wilson’s numbers, I finally found a statistic that tended to correlate fairly closely with his overall level of play: his average time to throw.
Zach Wilson’s average time to throw might be the most important factor in his success
We’ll abbreviate Wilson’s average time to throw as “TTT” for short. It simply measures the average amount of time that elapses from the point that the ball is snapped to the point that the quarterback releases it from his hands.
Speedy releases were the key to Wilson’s success. Wilson tended to play his best when he got the ball out quicker. When he held onto the ball longer, he tended to have a rough time.
On the year, Wilson registered a TTT of 3.05 seconds. That’s very high. It ranked fifth-highest out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in 2021.
The 3.0-second mark represented a crucial barometer for Wilson. In six games where he had a TTT under 3.0, Wilson registered an average game grade of 61.7 in my personal 0-to-100 grading system (which is based on my grading of every snap he played by rewatching each of them on film – learn more about that grading system here).
A grade of 50 represents an average-level performance, so Wilson’s 61.7 grade in those six games is pretty good. This six-game sample of sub-3.0 TTT outings includes Wilson’s games against the Jaguars (2.93 TTT), Eagles (2.66), and Buccaneers (2.65) – which were my three highest-graded games of the season for him.
Disaster often struck when Wilson had a TTT above 3.0. In seven games where he held the ball for longer than three seconds on average, Wilson had an average game grade of 38.3 in my grading system, which is brutal. This sample includes four games that many would agree were among his ugliest of the season: his contests against the Bills (3.73 TTT), Falcons (3.33), Patriots in Week 2 (3.29), and Saints (3.16).
Overall, when we include all 13 of Wilson’s games, the correlation coefficient between his TTT and his game grade was -0.584, which is decently strong (for reference, 0.000 would equal no correlation while -1.000 would equal a perfect negative correlation). This tells us that as Wilson’s TTT increased, there was a fairly strong tendency for his game grade to decrease.
What correlated even more closely with Wilson’s TTT than his overall game grade was his consistency.
In my weekly grading system for the Jets quarterbacks, I also track their ratio between positively-graded plays and negatively-graded plays. This gives us an estimate of their overall consistency, showcasing how often they beat the expectations of the given situation compared to how often they fail to meet the expectations of the given situation.
The correlation coefficient between Wilson’s TTT and his positive-negative ratio was a whopping -0.740.
In his six games with a sub-3.0 TTT, Wilson had a 2.27-to-1 ratio of positively-graded plays to negatively-graded plays, representing solid consistency (I consider 1.8-to-1 to be approximately league-average). In seven games with a TTT above 3.0, Wilson’s positive-negative ratio was a ghastly 1.11-to-1.
Six of Wilson’s seven most consistent performances came in games where he had a TTT below 3.0. Each of his six least consistent performances came in games where he had a TTT above 3.0.
Wilson’s worst enemies in 2021 were overthinking and overaggression. When he tried to do too much on a play, he usually paid the price. Think back to his Week 2 nightmare against New England. Wilson’s forced throws – like the ones he made in that Patriots game – were the ones that pushed his TTT to high levels.
But when Wilson played with a confident rhythm and took what the defense gave him, he usually did a nice job. Just look at his Tampa Bay tape. That Bucs game is a perfect model of the mentality that Wilson needs to play with in 2022 and beyond.
As things stand, getting the ball out quicker is the key to Zach Wilson’s success. Perhaps he will one day develop the ability to thrive on long-developing plays. But until then, Mike LaFleur would be wise to focus on constructing the passing game around fast-developing concepts in which Zach can make quick decisions. These concepts will help him build consistency, which in turn will lead to a steady accumulation of confidence.
None of this is to say that the Jets offense should have no aggressive passing concepts and that Wilson should be getting the ball out quickly on every play. The Jets will definitely integrate plenty of deep routes into their passing concepts this year, and Wilson must be ready to take them when they’re open.
And that right there is the key – Wilson needs to master the ability to take the best option available on each snap, whether that be the aggressive play or the safe one.
This is what Wilson did in his successful, lower-TTT games. What’s important to note about Wilson’s TTT splits is that, even in his lower-TTT games, he wasn’t necessarily getting the ball out at a lightning fast speed. In his six games with a sub-3.0-second TTT, his average TTT was still 2.78 seconds, which would have ranked 16th-highest out of 38 qualified quarterbacks last year.
That’s a middle-of-the pack rate, exemplifying the healthy balance that Wilson struck in those successful games. For the most part, he was consistently willing to take the quick and easy play if the defense handed it to him. But he wasn’t just dropping back and checking the ball down immediately like a game-managing QB. Wilson did occasionally hold the ball for a while and search for the big play, although he typically only did so when it was the right call.
Far more so than how fast Wilson was getting the ball out in his quicker-release games, the main takeaway from the TTT numbers in this article is how long Wilson was holding the ball in his slower-release games.
In his high-TTT games, Wilson’s TTT was really high; to a severely problematic degree. In his seven games with a TTT above 3.0, his average TTT was 3.28 seconds, which would have been the highest mark in the NFL last season. Jalen Hurts led the league at 3.18 seconds. Wilson matched or beat Hurts’s mark in over one third of his rookie-year games (5/13).
The moral of the story is not that Wilson should turn into Checkdown Charlie. It’s simply that he needs to avoid games in which he constantly tries to be the hero.
Wilson held the ball for an eternity in his bad games. In his good games, he held the ball for an approximately league-average amount of time, striking a productive balance between taking the easy play and searching for the big play.
I think the Jets’ offensive scheme is the perfect environment for Wilson to fulfill his potential. Wilson is a naturally aggressive quarterback who must tone things down to the point where he can smoothly combine the two sides of himself: the precise pocket QB who keeps the chains moving and protects the ball, and the gunslinger he was born to be. He’ll be able to learn how to get the best of both worlds in LaFleur’s offense.
In this scheme, Wilson will get the chance to primarily focus on keeping the offense moving in a methodical fashion with quick, high-percentage throws, relying on the YAC and short route-running skills of guys like Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Braxton Berrios. It will allow him to settle into games and generate momentum. All the while, his aggressive mentality will still be there, and LaFleur will give Wilson chances to allow his explosiveness to shine when the time is right.
If he were in a vertical, dropback-passing offense, Wilson’s aggressive mentality might be left to fester, turning him into a loose cannon who fires off some highlight bombs but also racks up plenty of turnovers and struggles with consistency.
But under LaFleur, Wilson is learning to harness his gunslinger style and turn it into a weapon that he can control rather than a ticking timebomb that can implode at any moment.
Balance. That’s the key for Zach Wilson. Backyard football isn’t going to cut it. Neither is game-managing. Mixing in both playstyles in each game – pulling out whichever one is best for the given situation on each play – is Wilson’s recipe for success.
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I think the TTT can be construed to be too important. IMO it all depends upon why that time is longer. If he’s struggling to see the field, read the defense or is indecisive and simply holding the ball too long, or if his WRs can’t get open, it’s a problem, but if his OL is giving him time, he’s making good decision, and is successfully attacking downfield, it’s not a problem. Also, remember that early last season, when Zach struggled the most with his TTT, LaFleur was having him attack perceived weaknesses/holes in their opponents’ secondaries, rather than giving Zach shorter, easier, confidence-building throws, so Zach’s TTT and more inconsistent games isn’t all on Zach. Further, his teammates’ lousy execution, failing to get open led to longer TTT times, and their dropping so many passes could have caused Zach to lose confidence in some of them, which also coul have adversely affected Zach’s play and his TTT.
I think one of his best games last season was the Titans’ game. He made that amazing sideline throw that maybe only 1-2 other QBs in the NFL can make, and he had that play where he waived Davis to go deeper, and then threw a TD to Davis. As DFargas points out so well below, Zach does not have a Mac Jones or Brady-type arm. He has a much stronger arm and is more aggressive. Ultimately, imo to be his best, he has to play in a style manner which suits his talents best.
The irony of this correlation with TTT is that the Jets OL has been improved so much (on paper) that ZW may have a lot more time to look for the bigger splash plays that will likely be built into each play to deep the defense dispersed/guessing. So, it seems to me it comes down to discipline and temperament/humility, and it seems like the jury is still out on that for ZW. Is he thoroughly convinced that short, quick, “easy” throws are the road to his and the team’s success or not? You look at how successful Mike White was in following that formula, and there’s a guy named Tom Brady who’s done it all his career, and his successor Mac Jones is like a junior master at it already. But ZW isn’t like those guys; he’s more in the mold of Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. I just don’t know…is there a clash down the road between QB and OC?
Fantastic points. Ultimately, I think what it comes down to is whether he can achieve that mastery of knowing when to be aggressive and when to be conservative. It’s tough to be good when you’re too far on either end of the spectrum (over-aggressive or over-conservative). The great QBs are experts at finding and taking the best-available option, whether that be the easiest checkdown they’ve ever thrown or a juicy matchup on a 40-yard one-on-one go ball with no safety help.
When it comes to Zach’s TTT splits last year, I don’t think the moral of the story is that he should be playing super safe all the time. It more shows that the quick/short/intermediate game should be his *primary* source of offense. But the deep shots should still be peppered in there every once in a while, and he’s got to take them when they’re there.
Because here’s the thing with his TTT splits: that 3.0-second cutoff that I mentioned is a very high number. Even when he was below that mark, he was still around league average in terms of TTT. He wasn’t *super* quick in those games. His average TTT in those six sub-3.0 games was 2.78s, which still would have ranked 16th-highest out of 38 qualifiers last year. So, middle of the pack. In these games, he really wasn’t being extremely quick with the ball. It was just a healthy balance between quickness and aggression. Whereas in those other games where he struggled, he was way too far on the aggressive end of the spectrum, leading to an abnormally high TTT.
Balance is the key, more so than uber-quickness. That’s why I think a quick-minded approach with the scheme is great for him. Because, like you said, his mentality is more like a Russell Wilson than a Tom Brady. He wants to attack. So, in this West Coast/Shanahan offense, he’ll be primarily asked to keep it short and quick, but his aggressiveness will kick in when it needs to. That’s the goal – to get him to the point where he can pull out his innate gunslinger mentality *when it makes the most sense*, and to keep things methodical and efficient otherwise.
In a more vertical offense I fear he could become a loose cannon, like a Jameis Winston type. But this offense will help him find a balance and become the best version of himself.
I wonder how much an improved O-line with a healthy Mekhi and an improved cast (TE’s, RB’s & WE’s) will affect that TTT? I get it was feast and famine in inconsistent situations and what you say makes sense, but he should have more time for things to develop and pushing the ball down field to an improved cast will open the run game/should make his TTT better. How much of his lack of success with a longer TTT was due to people just not getting open?
Either way, I think the run game is the one main factor over TTT this year. Breece should be a stud and Carter was pretty damn good when healthy. I do think with all our speed we are set up for bubble screens, slants, outs, hooks, shuffle passes and RB check downs/wheel routes which will align with your TTT. But getting teams to load the box and being able to take the top off a D is what could get us to 10 wins and improve his performance. If we can stop the run ourselves. I think our D will get more turnovers, our run game will help us control TOP and our run game will hold the safety’s and LB’s that extra second which will allow for better performance with a longer TTT.
Great point. All of the factors you mentioned should definitely help Zach’s performance and the team’s performance on those long-developing plays, specifically off of play-action (due to the potential run game strength as you mentioned).
I do think that much of Zach’s struggles on high-TTT plays was his own doing, as in many situations he was holding the ball too long because he was simply being too overaggressive (looking for the big play instead of taking the safe one), but poor route-running and pass protection definitely contributed to that. There were games when the pass pro was bad and forced him to run around a lot with the ball (raising his TTT), specifically the final Bills game. The route-running was also not very good from anybody besides Moore and spurts of Crowder/Berrios. TEs did not separate and Davis had some rough moments separating against man coverage early in the year.
So I think it was a combination of Zach’s own doing and his teammates’. The better supporting cast should create a better environment for him to have success on long-developing plays since he’ll be able to get into those more naturally (taking the big plays when they’re there) rather than having to force them on his own. But Zach himself certainly has to be better at the art of taking what the defense gives him – be safe when that’s the right call, and be aggressive when that’s the right call.
I thought the one factor was going to be how hot his mom’s friends are. An individuals game is always on point when they have a hot older woman under their arm.
TTT may not in itself be contributing to improved performance but instead be a symptom of something else that is. For example, having receivers get open more quickly, seeing the field better, and being more confident and decisive.
For sure, it could definitely be a product of something else that allows him. Heavy pressure and poor separation could lead to higher TTT averages.
However when watching him I do think that his TTT/overall performance correlation was often very much his own doing. For his example, some of the high TTT games where he played poorly, particularly New England and Atlanta, include a lot of examples of him trying to do much and in situations where he could have gotten the ball out much quicker. These were bad plays that simultaneously pushed up his TTT despite him not being forced into it.
Whereas in some of the low TTT games where he played his best ball, mainly JAX and TB, he was clearly much more dialed-in as a field-reader, more comfortable in the offense, and more willing to take the quick/safe stuff. Those games included mostly backups at WR and on the OL, so the surrounding performance wasn’t spectacular. Many of his best moments/games late in the season came in spite his surroundings; a lot of tight-window throws and under-pressure plays.
But, as you said, there is undoubtedly a team element to all of this. Better pass pro, better route-running, and better play-calling can all contribute to helping a QB get the ball out faster and play better overall because of it.
You alluded to this during the season and it is great to see you dive in deeper in the offseason and show just how stark the difference is between on time Zach and looking to make a big play on 1st and 10 Zach. I love his talent but early in the season he didn’t understand teams have to respect the entire field. If you just let them read the route concept they will take away your primary read. Go through your progressions and hit the open man. Defenses will eventually make mistakes and that is when you strike.
This is going to sound very simplistic, watch tapes of Dan Marino, make 3 reads then throw the ball out of bounds if the play is not there. Keep the chains moving, get close enough for a good punt, closer still for a field goal, then go for a touchdown! Can’t wait! Just extend This season!
I hoping after a year in the system he’ll be better at those long developing plays. They will need some of those plays to win games, not every pass can be a 6 yard slant, 10 yard in, or swing pass. He’s got to be able to stand in there, with time, and make some big plays down the field. I don’t disagree with your analysis but if he’s going to take the next step, then it can’t just be, get the ball out quick. He’s got to know the play, understand the defense, be patient, and take the shots when they are there. He’s also got to know when to bail on a play. I’m assuming, with no data that last piece was the biggest factor in his lack of success with those longer developing plays. Sometimes you have to give up, hopefully he learned that this off-season.
Agreed, in time, he has to be able to hit those deep shots from the pocket. They didn’t draft him to be Jimmy Garoppolo.
With that being said I think it makes sense to have the quick game be his *primary* bread-and-butter for 2022 (until he shows strong mastery of the offense). It’s his best strength until proven otherwise and relying on it should allow him to get his confidence and rhythm to the point where they can start smoothly transitioning him into a more aggressive/vertical gameplan.
But none of this is to say that every pass he throws should be a quick one. He should absolutely have some occasional deep shots dialed up, and he definitely will. With that being said I think it’s best to keep him short and quick * for the most part * at the moment.
Like you said though, the key is to take the shots when they’re there. I think that was the biggest difference in his high-TTT games and his low-TTT games last year. When he was holding the ball too long, he was being too aggressive trying to make something big happen in moments when it didn’t make sense. Think the Week 2 Patriots game. When he was getting the ball out quickly, he was doing a good job of taking what the defense gave him, relying on a methodical, efficient approach and only taking the big shots when they were open. I think this should be his approach in 2022.
You’re right, I just have major concerns about him being accurate enough to just pick up completion after completion. I haven’t seen it in his game but it does have to happen if he’s going to be any good.
I suggest you go back and watch Zach’s play his last year at BYU. Accuracy is NOT a problem for Zach. It was last year only because he was a rookie and learning, and the whole offense (along with LaFleur) was struggling in learning and executing the system.
Quite frankly if he can be just Garoppolo in year 2 the team will be in most games. He is a superior athlete to Garoppolo so that would ultimately give him a higher ceiling.
Consider his long developing plays were often because he failed to read the play and get the ball out on time (anecdotally, I don’t have the evidence, but I think that’s right). That’s different than having a long developing play actually dialed up. I think what Michael discovered is that his TTT improves when he reads the plays right and the ball is out on time. That might mean 3.2 seconds sometimes, but what he must avoid is missing the slant when the slant was the right read.
Yes, makes sense, way too many times he would not throw to the wide open guy right in front of him and keep looking for something down field. Then by the time he was ready there were no options.