CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 01: Ryan Griffin #84 of the New York Jets is tackled by Jessie Bates #30 of the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half at Paul Brown Stadium on December 1, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Something does not add up in the recent report about the New York Jets’ plans for the secondary

Jeremy Fowler, an NFL insider at ESPN, came out on Wednesday with a surprising take on the New York Jets management’s plans for late-offseason player acquisition.

Fowler speculates that the Jets still intend to make a “splash move” in the secondary this offseason.

“It seems like New York is still looking for another splash move in the secondary,” Fowler writes. “The Jets were in the mix for several high-cost free agents and signed corner D.J. Reed but could still use one more playmaker. A rangy center fielder at safety would elevate what should be an emerging defense.”

That leads all minds straight to Jessie Bates III, the Cincinnati Bengals safety who is currently in a contract dispute. He was franchised-tagged by the Bengals and failed to come to a long-term agreement, leading to a potential holdout.

Speculation has long abounded that the Jets will be in on Bates. He is a hard-hitting center fielder who would complement Jordan Whitehead’s skills very well.

Still, the likelihood of such a move has always been slim, and Fowler’s report seems suspect.

From a football perspective

For one thing, Bates is not coming off the best season of his career. Despite a strong postseason showing, Bates ended 2021 with a 56.1 Pro Football Focus grade, which was 55th out of 64 qualifying safeties. That includes a 53.4 coverage grade, which ranked 53rd. He allowed an 83.3% reception rate and a 135.0 passer rating against, both second-worst among safeties.

Those who want Bates will point out that his playoff performance last season was more reminiscent of his breakout 2020 campaign. In the year before last, Bates led all safeties with a 90.1 PFF grade, including a second-ranked 90.0 coverage grade. His 54.3% reception rate allowed was seventh-best, and his 42.3 passer rating against was third-best.

In four games in the 2021 playoffs, Bates put up a 90.0 PFF grade, 89.5 coverage grade, 36.4% reception rate allowed, and 35.6 passer rating against.

Those are some phenomenal coverage numbers and would definitely be an attractive addition to complete the Jets secondary.

I’m sure that Bates’s upside would be attractive to the Jets. However, it’s important to point out that if they wanted a top safety, they could have re-signed their own talent in Marcus Maye. If injuries were the big problem, they could have made a more aggressive pursuit of Marcus Williams, who eventually signed with the Ravens. They did not because of the money, and that’s where the unlikelihood of Bates begins.

Maye got three years and $28.5 million from New Orleans. Perhaps the relationship with the Jets had already soured too much, or the injury bug pushed them away.

But Williams was a nonstarter, as he signed a five-year, $70 million deal with $36 million guaranteed. That is reminiscent of Jamal Adams‘s deal, which was for four years, $70.5 million with $38 million guaranteed.

Furthermore, during this offseason, Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick signed a four-year, $73.6 million extension with $36 million guaranteed. Mind you, Fitzpatrick is also coming off a down year by his standards.

Is it likely that the general manager who ruthlessly traded away his defensive leader in Adams and let Maye walk will suddenly turn around and trade for a safety who will command a top-of-the-market contract?

In addition, GM Joe Douglas would not have had to trade any assets to sign either Adams or Maye. A Bates trade would require draft picks in return. Douglas has been reluctant to trade draft assets for players, particularly as the Jets are still in the midst of a rebuild.

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Veracity of the report

Besides the reasons that a move for Bates seems unlikely, there is the matter of the report itself. Though Fowler’s words have been widely quoted in news articles today, his actual ESPN report seems speculative. Once again, here is what Fowler wrote:

“It seems like New York is still looking for another splash move in the secondary. The Jets were in the mix for several high-cost free agents and signed corner D.J. Reed but could still use one more playmaker. A rangy center fielder at safety would elevate what should be an emerging defense.”

There is no indication that this comes from any source within the organization. In fact, multiple insiders have said that safety is not a Jets priority right now.

Therefore, there is no reason to lend particular credence to this report over any other speculative report about Jessie Bates III or others.

The Jets have other needs, including at swing tackle, linebacker, and possibly run-stuffing defensive tackle. Leave the fantasy wish list for, well, fantasy leagues.

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Rivka Boord has followed the Jets since the age of five. She is known locally for her in-depth knowledge of football. She hopes to empower young women to follow their dreams and join the sports conversation. Boord's background in analytics infuses her articles with unique insights into the state of the Jets' franchise and the NFL as a whole.
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Jets71
Jets71
4 months ago

I agree this seems like a reach but it could be a “back burner” move if some things fall in place perhaps? I think Bates is a much better player than Maye, you can look at some of Nania’s breakdowns to see Maye got a bit more credit for being at “top” safety than he should have. He was never all-pro or even a pro-bowl player. He was solid but not a “must have” at that price. I value Bates more than him.

My thoughts for a Bates move turned to Becton. If he can get himself looking good, he could be the trade piece Cincy is looking for? I know the Jets wouldn’t want to get rid of him but clearly he’s a challenge and this particular coaching staff wasn’t part of his draft process. I don’t think it’s ideal but consider: if Becton is unreliable and doesn’t play that’s not ideal either. I’m not saying I love this move but trading Becton for a more consistent Bates adds a top playmaker to the team. They may then sign Reiff to play RG and keep Fant at LT. My sense is the OL is still a player away from being complete. They may just have to get that player next off-season.

In addition, they could extend Fant and McGovern which could make their cap situation a bit more flexible.

Overall, I agree with you, I don’t trust this report, and think it’s a long shot but I do see a “path” to make it happen.

Jets71
Jets71
4 months ago
Reply to  Rivka Boord

Becton is as inconsistent as Bates and I’ve yet to see anything from him that makes me believe he’s dependable. I didn’t realize you couldn’t make that trade…good point. Bates has played well in big games, and is a different type of player than Adams. In coverage Bates crushes Adams. Adams is a glorified LB, and can’t cover. Bates is a true free safety. Maybe he’s been up and down but he, like Becton has shown ability, Bates has the ability to be one of the best safeties in the league.

McGovern was one of the better run blocking centers in the league last season (Nania has the breakdown) and while his pass-pro leaves a lot to be desired, I have to believe the addition of Tomlinson and AVT having another year will also benefit McGovern. If they don’t sign him or Fant to an extension they will be looking for 2 maybe 3 new offensive lineman next season. Continuity does count for something. If, Becton continues the current trajectory, and Fant and McGovern become free agents, they will be trying to fill 3 spots next season. I’m not down for that…..

Jets71
Jets71
4 months ago
Reply to  Rivka Boord

I think they need to extend one of the 2, personally I’d say Fant. I just don’t think they can go into the off-season with both of them as free agents and the potential of Becton not working out. I’m not sure Becton is a “premium asset” at this point. There is a difference between “potential” premium asset and actually having one. I just can’t see them doing this dance with Becton another year.

mlesko73
mlesko73
4 months ago

Bigger fish to fry, as your last paragraph correctly points out.

Robert Papalia
Robert Papalia
4 months ago

This is not happening.