Highlighting the best NFL betting picks for Week 1
Week 1 of the NFL season is here. After a long but exciting offseason where many big-name players were traded, the dust has settled and it is finally time to play football again.
The 2022 season kicks off in Los Angeles for a prime-time matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, September 8.
Let’s get into Jets X-Factor’s best bets for Week 1’s slate.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Both teams are coming into this game as Super Bowl hopefuls. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills have the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +600, while the Rams have the fourth-best odds at +1100.
The Bills had the best defense in the NFL last year. They led the league in many important categories including total points allowed and total yards allowed.
In the offseason, Buffalo added eight-time Pro Bowler Von Miller through free agency and drafted defensive back Kaiir Elam in the first round. This defense only got better in the off-season and is primed to lead the league again.
The Rams’ defense also put together a very nice season. They only allowed 21.9 points per game and 103 rushing yards per contest. They have All-Pros at each level of their defense and added six-time first-team All-Pro Bobby Wagner in the offseason.
At the start of every season, the defenses tend to be ahead of the offenses. I expect some rust from the offenses early on, meaning this game will stay under 52 points.
The Play: Under 52
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
The Philadelphia Eagles had a great off-season. They traded for wide receiver A.J. Brown and defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, drafted defensive tackle Jordan Davis and linebacker Nakobe Dean, and added cornerback James Bradberry in free agency. These improvements come after a season in which Philadelphia went 9-8 and earned a Wild Card spot.
However, I think the Eagles are a little overrated. They only had one win last season against a team with a winning record and that was the 9-8 banged-up New Orleans Saints.
I believe Detroit has a lot going for them in Week 1. This could be a nice statement game for the Lions to show the public they aren’t the same old Lions. Also, the Eagles beat up on the Lions 44-6 last season. I think Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is using that as payback to motivate his guys come Sunday.
Lastly, Lions quarterback Jared Goff is 5-0 against the spread as a Week 1 starting quarterback in his career. I never take bets solely based on trends, but it is nice to be on the right side of one here.
I anticipate the Eagles being one of the biggest public plays this week. So, I’ll take a shot with a motivated Lions team as home underdogs.
The Play: Detroit Lions +3.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
The last play of the weekend belongs to another home underdog in the Houston Texans.
I believe the Texans are better than people think. Davis Mills quietly put together a nice season for a rookie quarterback. He had 16 touchdown passes and almost 2,700 yards in 13 games (11 starts).
The Texans showed progress at the end of last season, going 2-2 in their last four games. They beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers while only losing by 3 points in Week 18 to the top-seeded Tennessee Titans.
The Colts lost their defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, who took the head coaching job with the Chicago Bears.
Indianapolis also has a new quarterback. Long-time Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan will take over for the failed Carson Wentz experiment.
The 37-year-old Ryan saw his numbers dip last season as he only threw 20 touchdown passes and failed to reach 4,000 yards for the first time since 2010.
I don’t believe Ryan has much left in the tank. I like the Texans to keep this game close and cover the spread at home.
The Play: Houston Texans +7.5