Best prop bets for New York Jets-Cleveland Browns
The New York Jets (+6.5) are looking to avoid their fourth consecutive 0-2 start as they head into Northeastern Ohio to take on the 1-0 Cleveland Browns, who are seeking their first 2-0 start since 1993.
Garrett Wilson: Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+490)
I really like Garrett Wilson to score a touchdown today.
When the Jets offense sat back and reviewed the tape of the season opener, they undoubtedly noticed that Wilson opened himself up for a multitude of touchdown opportunities. For one reason or another, Wilson did not get a chance to make a play on any of them.
Garrett Wilson was open for a TD on 3 plays vs. the Ravens pic.twitter.com/tW3BBMi8mV
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 18, 2022
The first and third plays in the above clip aren’t Joe Flacco‘s fault (he makes a fine decision on both of those), but the second one is a blatant misfire on an easy throw.
Regardless of why he wasn’t targeted or whose fault it was, the bottom line is that Wilson got open on a consistent basis – specifically in the red zone.
After seeing how many big-play chances Wilson created last week, I’m sure Flacco and the Jets offense will be making it a point today to not allow any more of Wilson’s touchdown opportunities to go to waste. They’re going to feature him in the red zone.
At +490, Wilson is tied with Braxton Berrios for the 10th-best Any Time Touchdown odds of any player in this game. I like those odds for Wilson.
If you’re feeling really lucky, you could play Wilson at +1900 to be the first touchdown scorer of the game.
Kareem Hunt: Over 17.5 receiving yards
Against a Jets defense that has strong coverage at cornerback but questionable coverage at safety and linebacker (though the linebackers exceeded expectations in Week 1), I can see the Browns looking to run their passing game through the tight ends and running backs rather than the wide receivers. This could be especially true with the conservative Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Even if the Browns do not intend to feature the TEs and RBs by design, it could end up happening naturally if the Jets’ cornerbacks do a good job of shutting down the Browns’ wide receivers, forcing checkdowns by Brissett (which we know the game-managing Brissett will be more than happy to take).
This means it might be a productive day for running back Kareem Hunt, who has been a fixture in Cleveland’s passing game.
Hunt is averaging 27.0 receiving yards per game in his career and has gone no lower than 19.0 in any of his six career seasons. He caught 4-of-4 targets for 24 yards last week, ranking second on the team in receptions and third in targets. In 2021, Hunt tied Odell Beckham for second on the team with 2.8 receptions per game.
The Jets gave up the second-most receiving yards per game to RBs last year (53.4). While the Ravens did not expose that weakness in Week 1, the Browns have a much better chance of exposing it in Week 2 thanks to Hunt’s premier talent as a receiver out of the backfield.
Michael Carter: Over 39.5 rushing yards
Michael Carter received 10 carries last week and turned them into 60 rushing yards. He has gone over 39.5 rushing yards in six of his past nine games.
Even with Breece Hall in the fold, Carter will continue to demand a solid dosage of rush attempts in this Jets offense thanks to his rapidly improving efficiency. Carter is averaging a stellar 6.0 yards per carry over his last six games.
I think the Jets will make a strong effort to establish their run game early and achieve a healthy pass-run balance. They absolutely do not want Flacco coming anywhere near his total of 62 dropbacks from a week ago. Carter and Hall should both get plenty of work in this game – so long as the Jets can keep the score close and avoid the negative game script they got into in the second half against Baltimore.
It’s important to note that Carter received his 10 carries despite New York ranking 31st in the NFL with 17 rushing attempts last week. That means Carter had 59% of the team’s carries.
This gives Carter the potential to get a very solid volume of carries this week if the Jets bump up their attempt volume as a team. Let’s say the Jets climb to 27 rushing attempts this week. If Carter maintained his 59% share on 27 team attempts, he would get 16 carries. At 16 carries, he would only have to average a measly 2.5 yards per carry to get the 40 yards he needs to go over 39.5.
Next Article: How the NY Jets can expose Browns QB Jacoby Brissett
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