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Week 4 NFL best bets: Fading the overrated

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NFL Week 4 odds: Best bets, picks

Week 4 of the NFL season is already here as we are almost a quarter of the way through the regular season. We have been doing pretty well with our picks so far going 6-2 through three weeks. We will try to keep that positive momentum going as we head deeper and deeper into the season.

Let’s take a look at Jets X-Factor’s best bets for Week 4.

All odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

After starting the season 0-2, the Cincinnati Bengals finally found their footing again in their 27-12 win over the New York Jets last week. Joe Burrow threw three touchdown passes and added 275 yards through the air while the defense shut down New York’s offense all game.

The Miami Dolphins have started the season with a few statement wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Miami sits atop the AFC as the only 3-0 team and is one of two teams in the NFL who have started 3-0.

However, the Dolphins could easily be 1-2 through three weeks. They were down by 21 points at the start of the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens and miraculously came back. I think Baltimore lost that game more than Miami won it.

In Week 3, the Buffalo Bills had 497 yards of total offense and 90 offensive plays. Miami only had 212 yards and 39 offensive plays. Miami’s defense was on the field for over 42 minutes of the game. That’s almost three full quarters of being on the field in the South Florida humidity.

Now, Miami has only three days off and has to travel north to Cincinnati. I anticipate the Bengals having their way at home against the overrated Miami Dolphins.

The Play: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-120)

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

The New England Patriots come into this game most likely without their starting quarterback. Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain in last Sunday’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. If Jones can’t go, it is expected to be Brian Hoyer starting at quarterback.

I think New England matches up pretty well against the Packers. They have been able to run the ball well this year as they are averaging 115.7 yards per game. Their game plan should be to run the football and control the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.

While the Patriots’ offense might not be very explosive in Week 4, I do think their defense can keep this game close. Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers, but they have not been as potent on offense as we have seen in recent years. Through the first three games, they are only averaging 16 points per game. That ranks 27th in the NFL.

I anticipate New England keeping this one close and covering the double-digit spread.

The Play: New England Patriots +10 (-115)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled all season, especially in the red zone. They are averaging only 17 points per game and have been dealing with a lot of injuries to key starters.

The Bucs’ defense is the only reason they are 2-1 right now. They have given up the fewest points per game in the National Football League this season through three weeks. They have allowed nine points per game and only 289 yards per contest. This unit also has 8 takeaways which is tied for first in the league so far.

Kansas City’s defense is also playing very well to start the season. They average 314 yards per game which is the 10th best out of all defenses in the league. They are also getting to the quarterback as they are accumulating 3.3 sacks per game. That total ranks 5th best in the NFL.

Tampa Bay has gone under the total in all three games so far and I expect that to continue.

The Play: Under 46 (-120)

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