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A battle of the NFC’s top two seeds takes place on Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers head into hostile Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Counter the expected hostility by snagging some incremental bonus bets through the best bet365 Promo Code in the NFL betting industry.
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This game pits the 49ers’ Mr. Irrelevant against the Eagles’ breakout star quarterback in a battle of signal-callers who have been written off in the past. Brock Purdy finds himself an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist, while Jalen Hurts is one of the three left standing in the NFL MVP race.
This is a battle between two DVOA powerhouses and two of the league’s most complete teams. San Francisco was No. 2 in team DVOA (No. 6 offense, No. 1 defense), while Philadelphia was No. 3 (No. 3 offense, No. 6 defense).
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Creative offenses vs. speedy defenses
The Eagles have built one of the NFL’s hardest offenses to defend, combining Jalen Hurts’s dual-threat potential with Miles Sanders’s strong running, an elite WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and an underrated tight end in Dallas Goedart. The sheer speed of Philadelphia’s offense has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, but if any team has the ability to contain them, it’s the San Francisco unit.
49ers’ linebacker Fred Warner has deservedly been receiving all the hype after the incredible coverage play he made on Cowboys star wideout CeeDee Lamb. Certainly, he is an incredible cover linebacker, one of the rare off-ball LBs worth his five-year, $95.2 million deal.
This coverage by Fred Warner… Sheeshhttps://t.co/ZfyiyqvV0h
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) January 23, 2023
However, the 49ers have another strong two-way linebacker in Dre Greenlaw, who was targeted repeatedly on screens and dump-offs (3.3 ADOT) but still put up a 5% forced incompletion rate, which was average for LBs, and recorded three pass breakups (72nd percentile). Overall, Greenlaw was in the 72nd percentile in passer rating allowed among LBs, and he led all linebackers with 34 defensive stops (plays on which the offense failed) in coverage. Furthermore, Greenlaw is a very sure tackler, as his 3.4% run-defense missed tackle rate was ninth-best among LBs, and his overall 5.8% rate was 13th.
For Jets fans who don’t think linebackers are important in Robert Saleh’s scheme, check out how Warner and Greenlaw fly around the field. That level of speed, instincts, and two-way excellence is one of the key elements missing from New York’s defense.
Warner and Greenlaw will have their work cut out for them facing the speed of the Eagles, but if anyone can do it, they can. This is the game in which the Eagles may be forced to stretch the field more, as the 49ers’ biggest weakness is in the deep part of the field. A.J. Brown is Philadelphia’s matchup nightmare and can exploit that deficiency.
Meanwhile, in the other offense-defense matchup, the 49ers’ offense also creates matchup nightmares for opponents with speed and misdirection. Although Purdy is not a running threat like Hurts, San Francisco utilizes their cadre of weapons to create favorable matchups and both out-leverage and outrun their opponents. Adding Christian McCaffrey to the mix took the offense to another level, even with McCaffrey’s relatively quiet game against the Cowboys.
Deebo Samuel did not replicate his outstanding 2021 season on the stat sheet, but he is still a dynamic two-way threat for San Francisco. He posted an outrageous 198.7 elusiveness rating on Pro Football Focus because of his 0.480 missed tackles forced per touch, the highest mark in the NFL by a wide margin.
San Francisco beats teams because of the sheer number of weapons they have. George Kittle has kept in lockstep with Travis Kelce for the best tight end in the league in terms of his level of play, but his stats do not always match due to differing usage in the 49ers’ offense. Kittle put up 11 TDs in 15 games, second among tight ends to Kelce’s 12, and had the highest QB rating when targeted at 133.6.
Brandon Aiyuk posted the highest yardage total for the 49ers in the passing game, nabbing 78 receptions for 1,015 yards and eight TDs. Still, he flies under the radar with teams so focused on stopping Deebo, Kittle, and McCaffrey.
However, if there’s any defense that’s going to quiet this offense, it will be Philly’s. The Eagles punish opponents with sheer pressure, as they posted 70 sacks during the regular season (coming just short of the record of 72) and had four players with 11+ sacks.
The Eagles couple that with wipeout coverage from their elite cornerback duo in Players’ All-Pro Darius Slay and second-team AP All-Pro James Bradberry. C.J. Gardner-Johnson adds to the secondary as a Swiss Army knife, rotating between both safety spots and slot cornerback. Philadelphia also has two underrated linebackers in T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White.
This is truly a battle of the NFC’s best.
bet365 Odds: Eagles vs. 49ers Best Bets
bet365’s $200 instant bonus can be used to make many different bets, including the lines, parlays, player props, score props, team props, half props, and quarter props. Here are some of the most intriguing odds and matchups that you might want to try.
NFL Team or Player | Eagles vs. 49ers Odds NFC championship game bet365 Sportsbook |
|
---|---|---|
Philadelphia Eagles | 💰 -2.5 (-120) Spread vs. San Francisco 49ers | |
San Francisco 49ers | 💰 +2.5 (+100) Spread at Philadelphia Eagles | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 💰 -150 Moneyline vs. San Francisco 49ers | |
San Francisco 49ers | 💰 +130 Moneyline at Philadelphia Eagles | |
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers | 💰 Over-Under 46.5 Total Points (O -110 / U -110) | |
Jalen Hurts | 💰 Over-Under 250.5 (O -110 / U -110) Passing Yards vs. San Francisco 49ers | |
Brock Purdy | 💰 Over-Under 219.5 (O -105 / U -115) Passing Yards at Philadelphia Eagles | |
Christian McCaffrey | 💰 Over-Under 58.5 (O -110 / U -110) Passing Yards at Philadelphia Eagles |
49ers Moneyline: +130
I think that the money line here is pretty good, especially for a 2.5-point spread. Compared to the Bengals at +105, this is a great opportunity to get in on what will likely be a very close game. The Eagles and 49ers are evenly matched in virtually every area. Why not try this one?
Over-Under Total: Under 46.5 points (-110)
As good as these offenses are, Jalen Hurts’s shoulder injury and Brock Purdy’s inexperience make me think that the game will go under the total. The 49ers’ defense led the NFL in allowing 16.5 points per game, and the Eagles were sixth at 19.5. Meanwhile, the Eagles were second in the NFL in scoring 28.6 points per game, while the 49ers were tied for fourth at 26.8.
However, I believe that defense will beat offense in this game. Watching the 49ers’ offense struggle to find its footing against Dallas’s defense makes me think that a similar thing might happen against the Eagles. Although Philadephia dominated the Giants on the line of scrimmage, it will be difficult to do the same to the 49ers’ front seven.
The only way I see this game going above the total is if Philadelphia can consistently work the deep part of the field. As dominant as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are, I don’t think Jalen Hurts will have the time to get the ball out deep so regularly. Sure, there will likely be at least one 40+ yard shot downfield, because that does tend to happen to San Francisco. Overall, though, the Eagles like to use the short and intermediate areas to set up the long ball, and I think they’ll have a tough time of it in this game.
Quez Watkins, anytime TD (+450)
No one pays much attention to the Eagles’ third receiver with all of their other threats. Indeed, he did not quite reach the 50-target threshold in 2022. However, Watkins had three touchdowns of 20+ yards in the regular season, tied for ninth among 65 qualified receivers (min. 9 deep targets).
Although A.J. Brown’s seven deep TDs were second in the league, I think Watkins’s +450 odds are better than Brown’s +125. The main reason is that the 49ers’ defensive DVOA against No. 1 receivers was fourth in the league, while their defensive DVOA against receivers No. 3 and below was 30th.
Look for Philadelphia to sneak Watkins deep at some point in this game. The results could be game-changing.
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Nick Bosa to not record a sack (+140)
Nick Bosa is the likely Defensive Player of the Year after recording 18.5 sacks in the regular season. Jordan Mailata is a Pro Bowl alternate but did allow six sacks this season. So why don’t I think Bosa will record a sack?
First of all, I believe the Eagles will try to establish the run game and not throw the ball as much. Since the game will likely be close, this will be a viable strategy throughout. That leaves fewer opportunities for Bosa to get a sack.
Second, this pick is about value. Considering that Bosa has not yet recorded a sack in the playoffs, I’d hedge my bets that this continues.
Bosa alternates between both sides of the line, and Lane Johnson has not allowed a sack all year. His injury makes it a tougher matchup for him, but I’m going to bet on the long-time vet. Jordan Mailata has not had a good year, allowing sick sacks and a 6.3% pressure rate (combined regular and postseason); however, Tyler Smith of the Cowboys had also allowed six sacks in the regular season and did not surrender one to Bosa.
Although this is not the pick I’d be the most confident about, I might include it as a low-risk bet.