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A battle of the NFCโs top two seeds takes place on Sunday when theย San Francisco 49ers head into hostile Lincoln Financial Field to take on theย Philadelphia Eagles. Counter the expected hostility by snagging some incremental bonus bets through the best bet365 Promo Code in the NFL betting industry.
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This game pits the 49ersโ Mr. Irrelevant against the Eaglesโ breakout star quarterback in a battle of signal-callers who have been written off in the past. Brock Purdy finds himself an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist, whileย Jalen Hurts is one of the three left standing in the NFL MVP race.
This is a battle between two DVOA powerhouses and two of the leagueโs most complete teams. San Francisco was No. 2 in team DVOA (No. 6 offense, No. 1 defense), while Philadelphia was No. 3 (No. 3 offense, No. 6 defense).
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Creative offenses vs. speedy defenses
The Eagles have built one of the NFLโs hardest offenses to defend, combining Jalen Hurtsโs dual-threat potential with Miles Sandersโs strong running, an elite WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and an underrated tight end in Dallas Goedart. The sheer speed of Philadelphiaโs offense has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, but if any team has the ability to contain them, itโs the San Francisco unit.
49ersโ linebacker Fred Warner has deservedly been receiving all the hype after the incredible coverage play he made on Cowboys star wideout CeeDee Lamb. Certainly, he is an incredible cover linebacker, one of the rare off-ball LBs worth his five-year, $95.2 million deal.
This coverage by Fred Warnerโฆ Sheeshhttps://t.co/ZfyiyqvV0h
— Coach Yac ๐ฃ (@Coach_Yac) January 23, 2023
However, the 49ers have another strong two-way linebacker in Dre Greenlaw, who was targeted repeatedly on screens and dump-offs (3.3 ADOT) but still put up a 5% forced incompletion rate, which was average for LBs, and recorded three pass breakups (72nd percentile). Overall, Greenlaw was in the 72nd percentile in passer rating allowed among LBs, and he led all linebackers with 34 defensive stops (plays on which the offense failed) in coverage. Furthermore, Greenlaw is a very sure tackler, as his 3.4% run-defense missed tackle rate was ninth-best among LBs, and his overall 5.8% rate was 13th.
For Jets fans who donโt think linebackers are important in Robert Salehโs scheme, check out how Warner and Greenlaw fly around the field.ย That level of speed, instincts, and two-way excellence is one of the key elements missing from New Yorkโs defense.
Warner and Greenlaw will have their work cut out for them facing the speed of the Eagles, but if anyone can do it, they can. This is the game in which the Eagles may be forced to stretch the field more, as the 49ersโ biggest weakness is in the deep part of the field. A.J. Brown is Philadelphiaโs matchup nightmare and can exploit that deficiency.
Meanwhile, in the other offense-defense matchup, the 49ersโ offense also creates matchup nightmares for opponents with speed and misdirection. Although Purdy is not a running threat like Hurts, San Francisco utilizes their cadre of weapons to create favorable matchups and both out-leverage and outrun their opponents. Adding Christian McCaffrey to the mix took the offense to another level, even with McCaffreyโs relatively quiet game against the Cowboys.
Deebo Samuel did not replicate his outstanding 2021 season on the stat sheet, but he is still a dynamic two-way threat for San Francisco. He posted an outrageous 198.7 elusiveness rating on Pro Football Focus because of his 0.480 missed tackles forced per touch, the highest mark in the NFL by a wide margin.
San Francisco beats teams because of the sheer number of weapons they have. George Kittle has kept in lockstep with Travis Kelce for the best tight end in the league in terms of his level of play, but his stats do not always match due to differing usage in the 49ersโ offense. Kittle put up 11 TDs in 15 games, second among tight ends to Kelceโs 12, and had the highest QB rating when targeted at 133.6.
Brandon Aiyuk posted the highest yardage total for the 49ers in the passing game, nabbing 78 receptions for 1,015 yards and eight TDs. Still, he flies under the radar with teams so focused on stopping Deebo, Kittle, and McCaffrey.
However, if thereโs any defense thatโs going to quiet this offense, it will be Phillyโs. The Eagles punish opponents with sheer pressure, as they posted 70 sacks during the regular season (coming just short of the record of 72) and had four players with 11+ sacks.
The Eagles couple that with wipeout coverage from their elite cornerback duo in Playersโ All-Pro Darius Slay and second-team AP All-Pro James Bradberry. C.J. Gardner-Johnson adds to the secondary as a Swiss Army knife, rotating between both safety spots and slot cornerback. Philadelphia also has two underrated linebackers in T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White.
This is truly a battle of the NFCโs best.
bet365 Odds: Eagles vs. 49ers Best Bets
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| NFL Team or Player | Eagles vs. 49ers Odds NFC championship game bet365 Sportsbook |
|
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | ![]() | ๐ฐ -2.5 (-120) Spread vs. San Francisco 49ers |
| San Francisco 49ers | ![]() | ๐ฐ +2.5 (+100) Spread at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Philadelphia Eagles | ![]() | ๐ฐ -150 Moneyline vs. San Francisco 49ers |
| San Francisco 49ers | ![]() | ๐ฐ +130 Moneyline at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers | ![]() ![]() | ๐ฐ Over-Under 46.5 Total Points (O -110 / U -110) |
| Jalen Hurts | ![]() | ๐ฐ Over-Under 250.5 (O -110 / U -110) Passing Yards vs. San Francisco 49ers |
| Brock Purdy | ![]() | ๐ฐ Over-Under 219.5 (O -105 / U -115) Passing Yards at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Christian McCaffrey | ![]() | ๐ฐ Over-Under 58.5 (O -110 / U -110) Passing Yards at Philadelphia Eagles |
49ers Moneyline: +130
I think that the money line here is pretty good, especially for a 2.5-point spread. Compared to the Bengals at +105, this is a great opportunity to get in on what will likely be a very close game. The Eagles and 49ers are evenly matched in virtually every area. Why not try this one?
Over-Under Total: Under 46.5 points (-110)
As good as these offenses are, Jalen Hurtsโs shoulder injury and Brock Purdyโs inexperience make me think that the game will go under the total. The 49ersโ defense led the NFL in allowing 16.5 points per game, and the Eagles were sixth at 19.5. Meanwhile, the Eagles were second in the NFL in scoring 28.6 points per game, while the 49ers were tied for fourth at 26.8.
However, I believe that defense will beat offense in this game. Watching the 49ersโ offense struggle to find its footing against Dallasโs defense makes me think that a similar thing might happen against the Eagles. Although Philadephia dominated the Giants on the line of scrimmage, it will be difficult to do the same to the 49ersโ front seven.
The only way I see this game going above the total is if Philadelphia can consistently work the deep part of the field. As dominant as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are, I donโt think Jalen Hurts will have the time to get the ball out deep so regularly. Sure, there will likely be at least one 40+ yard shot downfield, because that does tend to happen to San Francisco. Overall, though, the Eagles like to use the short and intermediate areas to set up the long ball, and I think theyโll have a tough time of it in this game.
Quez Watkins, anytime TD (+450)
No one pays much attention to the Eaglesโ third receiver with all of their other threats. Indeed, he did not quite reach the 50-target threshold in 2022. However, Watkins had three touchdowns of 20+ yards in the regular season, tied for ninth among 65 qualified receivers (min. 9 deep targets).
Although A.J. Brownโs seven deep TDs were second in the league, I think Watkinsโs +450 odds are better than Brownโs +125. The main reason is that the 49ersโ defensive DVOA against No. 1 receivers was fourth in the league, while their defensive DVOA against receivers No. 3 and below was 30th.
Look for Philadelphia to sneak Watkins deep at some point in this game. The results could be game-changing.
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Nick Bosa to not record a sack (+140)
Nick Bosa is the likely Defensive Player of the Year after recording 18.5 sacks in the regular season. Jordan Mailata is a Pro Bowl alternate but did allow six sacks this season. So why donโt I think Bosa will record a sack?
First of all, I believe the Eagles will try to establish the run game and not throw the ball as much. Since the game will likely be close, this will be a viable strategy throughout. That leaves fewer opportunities for Bosa to get a sack.
Second, this pick is about value. Considering that Bosa has not yet recorded a sack in the playoffs, Iโd hedge my bets that this continues.
Bosa alternates between both sides of the line, and Lane Johnson has not allowed a sack all year. His injury makes it a tougher matchup for him, but Iโm going to bet on the long-time vet. Jordan Mailata has not had a good year, allowing sick sacks and a 6.3% pressure rate (combined regular and postseason); however, Tyler Smith of the Cowboys had also allowed six sacks in the regular season and did not surrender one to Bosa.
Although this is not the pick Iโd be theย most confident about, I might include it as a low-risk bet.






