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NFL Draft Odds Shift at No. 1
All through the NFL offseason, Bryce Young was considered the consensus No. 1 overall pick. However, there was a clear understanding that it could change at the NFL Combine.
While Young acquitted himself well, there is one part of his game that hurts his stock, and it’s completely out of his control: his height. Young measured in at 5-foot-10.25, which is not just small for an NFL quarterback; it’s diminutive. He also weighed in at 204 pounds, which didn’t quell concerns about his durability.
Unsurprisingly, the next quarterback on the board, C.J. Stroud, overtook Young for the No. 1 spot at FanDuel and many other oddsmakers. Stroud displayed unexpected arm strength and athleticism at the Combine, and his pinpoint accuracy and smooth motion evoke comparisons to franchise quarterbacks of years past. FanDuel has him at -220 to go No. 1 overall.
Meanwhile, Young hasn’t dropped that far: he’s second at +250. The Panthers could still very well prefer Young’s superior knack for off-schedule plays, intelligence, and poise in the pocket.
The wild-card factor is always Anthony Richardson, who crushed the Combine with a perfect 10.00 Relative Athletic Score and the best vertical and broad jump scores ever for a quarterback. Measuring 6-foot-4, 231 pounds, he ran a lightning-fast 4.43 40-yard dash, the third-best ever by a QB.
Richardson’s physical gifts are undeniable, and NFL coaches and scouts will always go for that level of athleticism. The issue on his tape is sloppy footwork leading to wild inaccuracy. The question is always whether that is fixable, particularly since Richardson is so green as a quarterback.
Will Carolina pick the more polished passers in Stroud or Young, or will they go for the high-ceiling athlete? They are the franchise that picked Cam Newton No. 1 overall 12 years ago, after all.
| Player | Position-School |  | No. 1 Pick 2023 NFL Draft DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. C.J. Stroud | QB-Ohio State |  | 💰 -220 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 2. Bryce Young | QB-Alabama |  | 💰 +250 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 3. Anthony Richardson | QB-Florida |  | 💰 +350 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 4. Will Levis | QB-Kentucky |  | 💰 +3000 to go No. 1 Overall |
| T5. Will Anderson Jr. | EDGE-Alabama |  | 💰 +10000 to go No. 1 Overall |
| T5. Jalen Carter | IDL-Georgia |  | 💰 +10000 to go No. 1 Overall |
Other Draft Picks
Offense
At FanDuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a significant favorite to be the first receiver off the board following a lackluster Combine from most of the receiver candidates. This crop of pass-catchers is mostly small and not fast enough.
Smith-Njigba, though, outperformed his teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in 2021 when the trio was at Ohio State, and his 9.39 RAS (without a 40-yard dash) will likely convince some team to pick him pretty high. After seeing what Wilson and Olave did in their rookie year, the man that the pair said is better than both of them is at +100 to be the first receiver taken. Quentin Johnston follows at +300 and Jordan Addison at +400.
The first tight end off the board is between Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid. Mayer is a slight favorite at +115, while Kincaid is at +150. Both are projected to be big-time playmakers in a deep tight-end class. Darnell Washington, at +330, will likely be a steal for a team as a two-way mauler.
Jets fans will be particularly interested in how the offensive line market pans out. As of now, Pete Skoronski is the favorite to be the first OL off the board at +125, but Paris Johnson Jr. is right behind him at +150. I think Skoronski has the edge right now in perception despite his 32 1/4″ arm length. Broderick Jones, at +450, is a popular mock draft pick for the Jets, but the team would be thrilled if Skoronski or Johnson Jr. falls into their laps.
Defense
The first defensive player off the board used to be a two-player race between Will Anderson and Jalen Carter. However, with Carter’s recent legal troubles and, more importantly, his poor pro-day performance, Anderson is now the clear favorite at -300. Tyree Wilson follows at +400, and Carter has fallen to +500. Carter’s stock could still improve again if he does a personal pro day to show that he is back in shape and both physically and mentally in the game after his arrest.
This draft is very deep at cornerback, a position for which the Jets do not have a specific need. Christian Gonzalez is the consensus No. 1 cornerback and is -150 to be the first off the board. Devon Weatherspoon is next at +175.
Team Picks
The Indianapolis Colts are currently listed as the favorite to land Anthony Richardson at +230. FanDuel’s oddsmakers think it’s more likely that Carolina and Houston take Stroud and Young at the first two spots, leaving Indianapolis to snag their QB of the future.
This seems more likely than ever with Gardner Minshew joining the Colts this week as a bridge starter. Carolina and Seattle are second in the Richardson odds at +350; if Richardson does fall past the Colts, the Seahawks are a sneaky good landing spot for him, as he can learn behind Geno Smith.
Will Levis is also a real wild card in this draft and is a very polarizing prospect. He’s one of those players where measurables are taking precedence over actual production. There has long since been speculation that Indianapolis could take him, too, leading to the top odds that the Colts will be his landing spot at +250. The Raiders come in next at +350.
Hendon Hooker is another fascinating prospect. The QB was rising on many draft boards prior to his ACL tear. He is currently at +1100 to go to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and +1200 for the Raiders and Titans.
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