The NY Jets’ worst-case draft scenario (And how to navigate it)

There’s a consensus on what the worst-case draft scenario would be for the New York Jets

Coming into the 2023 offseason, the offensive tackle position was widely considered to be the New York Jets‘ greatest need outside of quarterback. But as we sit here on April 23, just four days away from the NFL draft, the Jets still have not made a single noteworthy addition at the tackle position.

Because of the Jets’ ignorance of the tackle position so far, most writers and fans agree the Jets are likely to select a tackle with the 13th overall pick in the first round of the draft. It is a strong tackle class and there is a high likelihood of the Jets having one of the best tackle prospects on the board for them when they come onto the clock at No. 13.

The consensus top three tackle prospects are as follows: Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State), Peter Skoronski (Northwestern), and Broderick Jones (Georgia). Each prospect ranks in the top 20 on Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board, which compiles data from 150 big boards around the internet. Johnson is the No. 10 overall prospect, Skoronski is No. 12, and Jones is No. 18.

New York should be able to get one of these guys with the 13th overall pick – but it’s not a guarantee.

In Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft, Johnson is the favorite to be drafted by Chicago at No. 9 while Skoronski is the favorite to be drafted by Philadelphia at No. 10.

And while Jones is the favorite to be drafted by New York at No. 13, it’s far from a lock that he will be available. Tennessee is considered a strong candidate to select a tackle at No. 11. Quarterback is also on the table for the Titans, but the top quarterbacks might be gone before Tennessee is on the clock, which would push them toward a tackle. And if two tackles have already been taken by the time Tennessee comes up, the Titans might just scoop up the last available tackle out of the consensus top three options.

There is a real scenario where the Jets come on the clock at No. 13 with Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski, and Broderick Jones all off the board. Some might consider this a worst-case scenario for New York.

What would the Jets do then?

Here are some plausible options for the Jets if they encounter this scenario on Thursday night.

1. Draft Darnell Wright

Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright has seen his stock rise throughout the past few months and is generally considered to be the fourth-best tackle prospect. He is the No. 23 overall prospect on Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board, ranking him fourth among tackles and just a hair outside of the position’s top tier.

However, Wright is not so far down the board to the point where he does not have his believers. There are many people in the draft community, including Jets X-Factor’s Andrew Golden, who adore Wright’s game and view him on the same level (or higher) as Johnson, Skoronski, and Jones.

If the Jets are one of those believers, they could end up taking Wright here. It would be viewed as a reach by some, but NFL teams’ boards often differ greatly from the consensus of the outside world. Wright could absolutely be seen by the Jets’ scouts and coaches as a prospect worthy of taking with the 13th overall pick.

In that case, it’s a no-brainer to take Wright here if the other three tackles are gone. We shouldn’t even rule out the possibility of New York drafting Wright over one of the top three tackles if one of them is available alongside him at No. 13. Nobody knows what the Jets’ draft board looks like except for the Jets themselves.

2. Trade down, take a tackle later in the first round

Just as the Jets could like Wright more than the consensus, it’s also possible that they like him equally as the consensus or possibly even less than the consensus. In these cases, the Jets would probably view him as a reach with the No. 13 pick.

But if they still desperately want a tackle and are willing to take one with a lower first-round pick, the Jets could seek to trade down into a sweet spot of the first round where they can still get a tackle while adding some extra picks in the process.

Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison should also be considered a potential late-first-round option alongside Wright. Harrison is the No. 32 prospect on Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board. You can also throw in Ohio State’s Dawand Jones, who is ranked No. 41 but has a polarizing profile that could draw some teams into viewing him as a first-round prospect.

If the Jets are dead-set on taking a tackle in the first round and would be comfortable with any of Wright, Harrison, or Jones in the latter half of the first round, they could seek a trade partner in the late teens or early twenties with the intention of taking their favorite tackle available when they are on the clock.

Perhaps a team like the Buccaneers (No. 19) or Vikings (No. 23) could seek to climb the board for a slipping quarterback. The 13th pick is also a sweet spot for a WR-needy team to come up before the run on receivers is expected to begin – perhaps the Chargers (No. 21), Ravens (No. 22), or Giants (No. 25) will be eager to climb.

3. Take the BPA at a different position, draft OT later (either R2 or trade up into R1)

The Jets could hang tight at No. 13 and select the best player available on their board even if that player is not a tackle, staying true to the BPA mentality that Joe Douglas has typically adhered to throughout his tenure with the Jets. If three tackles are already gone by No. 13, it probably means that an intriguing prospect at another position has slipped down the board.

Wide receiver is one direction the Jets could go, with Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, USC’s Jordan Addison, and TCU’s Quentin Johnson being potential options. They could also take a defensive tackle; there is an outside chance that consensus top-five prospect Jalen Carter slips, while Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey is a fast-rising prospect who could be taken earlier than expected.

If the Jets select a non-tackle at No. 13, they could pivot to drafting a tackle in the second round. Dawand Jones could be an excellent option at No. 42 or No. 43, as we broke down previously.

The problem with this scenario is that the early part of the second round doesn’t look like it will be an ideal spot to target a tackle. After Dawand Jones, there is a huge drop-off in the tackle rankings. The next tackle on Mock Draft Database’s big board is Syracuse’s Matthew Bergeron, all the way down at No. 64. After Bergeron, it’s Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan at No. 88.

With that large of a gap, it seems unlikely that any NFL team would like Bergeron or another prospect that much more than the consensus to take them all the way up in the early forties (although it is possible). So, if Dawand Jones doesn’t make it to the Jets’ second-round pick, they would be out of luck – unless they want to make a major reach or if they surprisingly have a lower-ranked tackle prospect like Bergeron substantially higher on their board than the consensus.

Another option could be to trade up into the late first round. This would only be possible if the Aaron Rodgers trade does not happen prior to or during the draft, meaning the Jets would have both of their second-round picks to work with. In that case, the Jets would have enough ammo to facilitate a trade-up into the late first round for Darnell Wright, Anton Harrison, or Dawand Jones.

4. Trade up to ensure a tackle

Lastly, the Jets could prevent this worst-case scenario from happening in the first place by trading up from the 13th pick. If the Jets are absolutely hellbent on getting one of their top-ranked tackle prospects in the early part of the first round, they could be willing to cough up some assets so they can seize their own destiny and ensure they aren’t left empty-handed at No. 13.

Unless you are a team at the very top of the draft, it is difficult to project how things will play out before the draft begins, so I don’t see the Jets trading up prior to the draft. They might not have to move up to get their guy. But once the draft begins, if the Jets see the board falling in a way where they believe the top tackles will be gone before No. 13, they could decide to get on the phone and make a move.

This isn’t a likely possibility, but it’s worth mentioning. The Jets badly needed help at this position coming into the offseason and they have not done a single thing to improve the unit over the past two months. If the Jets allow the top tackle prospects to pass them by, they will be in dire straits at tackle. New York can certainly be considered at least somewhat desperate at this position, so I wouldn’t rule out a trade-up to avoid leaving this crucial need up to luck.