We have reached the point of the NFL draft cycle where players’ “stocks” (at least in the public eye) will mainly fluctuate due to shifting opinions in the mainstream media conversation. The college football season, the Senior Bowl, and the combine are all behind us. Some pro days remain, but for the most part, what’s done is done. Movement on the prospect stock market will be subtle from here on and out.
Thus, it is time to engage in static debates over the next five-plus weeks about who the New York Jets should select with the seventh overall pick. These debates are bound to see-saw back and forth due to the sheer amount of time we have to kill, but for the most part, the Jets’ outlook at No. 7 is the same today as it will be in five weeks, barring a shocking turn of events.
Without further ado, here are the Jets’ top five options with the seventh pick as we sit here on March 19. (Subject to change within the next 24 hours, and again within the following 24.)
5. Shedeur Sanders falls, Jets trade up 1-2 picks
Signing Justin Fields does not eliminate the Jets’ need for a quarterback. As lofty as his $30 million in guarantees may seem at first glance, that number only places him 26th at the quarterback position. The Jets did not make a firm commitment to him over the long haul.
Unless Fields is the next great outlier in quarterback development, joining surprise late bloomers like Sam Darnold, Fields will probably not be the Jets’ starting quarterback two years from now. Thus, the Jets remain in the mix for a quarterback in the draft.
Even after signing Fields, there would be more talk about the Jets targeting a quarterback right now if the proposition were realistic. Unfortunately for the Jets, they are not in an ideal spot to attack the quarterback position. The 2025 quarterback class is considered weak, featuring only two players (Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders) who would not be considered reaches in the top 10. New York is sitting at No. 7 with three QB-needy teams ahead of them.
Ward is inching toward becoming a shoo-in for the first pick. While some rumors have claimed the Jets would consider such a move, it feels unlikely. A more likely possibility would be that Sanders slips out of the top four, opening the door for New York to make a much less costly trade-up move to secure the slipping Colorado star.
Sanders is a polarizing figure off the field, but on the field, he’s a steady hand with a high floor. A true point guard, Sanders brings excellent accuracy and decision-making to the position. In 2024, he had the second-best adjusted completion percentage (81.8%) and second-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate (1.3%) among Power 4 quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts.
The primary knocks on Sanders are related to his ceiling. He does not appear to possess the same physical upside as Ward or most of the quarterback prospects who typically go this early in the draft. However, his high floor could make him appealing for a Jets franchise that has swung and missed on countless high-ceiling-type quarterback prospects.
If Sanders slips to Nos. 5 or 6, the Jets should consider tossing over a later-round pick or two to beat other teams to the punch. A quarterback room of Fields and Sanders would give the Jets multiple dice rolls at a long-term solution, while the presence of Fields and Tyrod Taylor would allow New York to patiently develop Sanders.
4. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett is concerned about Mason Graham’s fit in the Jets’ defense. Blewett wonders if Graham could be a true 1-technique across from Quinnen Williams, who thrives at 3-technique.
Nonetheless, if Graham is available at No. 7, he would have a strong argument to be the best player available, and defensive tackle remains a pressing need for New York. The Jets can worry about his fit later; Graham checks the boxes of both talent and need.
The 6-foot-3, 320-pound Graham has the potential to dominate in both phases at the next level. He was PFF’s highest-graded run defender among FBS defensive tackles in 2024, while he also ranked 10th at the position with 34 total pressures.
3. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
The Jets’ tight end room is all but empty in terms of both receiving and blocking skills; Warren would address both needs. He also might be the best prospect relative to his position that New York could realistically get their hands on.
With an opportunity to be the second-highest drafted tight end of the last 15 years, Warren is a special prospect at the position. Standing at a shade under 6-foot-6 and 256 pounds, he has an incredible length/size combination and fully uses it to his advantage, securing 13-of-21 contested targets (61.9%) in the 2024 season. Warren has great hands (three drops on 104 receptions; 2.8% drop rate), can create separation at the top of his routes, and is a willing blocker. He is the total package.
Doesn’t get the ball here but really nice route as he beats a safety in press coverage. pic.twitter.com/lx1ABPdABl
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) February 15, 2025
Draws a hold vs. a S on this pivot route.
The more you watch him, the less it feels like you’re watching a TE. Can line up anywhere & win on any route
This part of his game is what builds the case of taking him top 10. He can *create* opportunities; not just capitalize on them pic.twitter.com/CXFgyV6HyB
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) February 15, 2025
The concern is positional value. If you rewind the clock one year, there was already controversy over the idea of New York using the 10th pick on Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, let alone the seventh. Yet, Bowers had a far more established track record of production than Warren. Bowers was immediately dominant as an 18-year-old true freshman, while Warren did not break out as a star until his fifth college season, when he was already 22 years old.
However, the Jets’ need for a tight end in their offensive scheme eases some of the concerns about positional value. With Tanner Engstrand as their offensive coordinator and Justin Fields at quarterback, the Jets will likely rely on heavy personnel packages. Tight end is a more important position for them than it is for most teams.
Additionally, the Jets simply need weapons, and Warren is precisely that. With the second-best wide receiver on their roster currently being (gulp) Allen Lazard, the Jets need all of the pass-catching juice they can get, regardless of which position it comes from. Warren would immediately slot in as the Jets’ No. 2 weapon in the passing game, which makes him far more valuable than most tight ends.
Combining Warren’s talent with the unique value of the tight end position in New York’s current predicament, he would be a fantastic selection in this spot despite the concerns.
2. Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Armand Membou is a fast riser after his electric combine performance (9.89 Relative Athletic Score). That is often a red flag, but Membou is a unique case. It does not seem as if he is profiting solely off his workout. Rather, it feels like the man was flat-out overlooked until now.
In 2024 – at age 20 in his third college season – Membou was a dominant starter at right tackle. He allowed zero sacks, zero quarterback hits, and eight total pressures on 411 pass-blocking snaps while rating as PFF’s third-best run-blocking right tackle among Power 4 teams.
Stats are just stats, but Membou’s film was generating first-round hype among dedicated draft analysts before he attracted mainstream attention at the combine.
One of the concerns with taking Membou at No. 7 would be the idea of New York over-investing in the offensive line. The Jets already have two first-round picks (Olu Fashanu and Alijah Vera-Tucker) and one second-round pick (Joe Tippmann) invested in the unit. Membou would make it four out of five starters chosen by New York in the top two rounds. Is that too much capital invested in one unit?
Some will make that argument, but I will not. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, which means the next-most important position is the unit that protects him. Can you really invest too much in a unit as vital as the offensive line? This is not tight end or safety we are talking about.
With a solidified offensive line in place, the Jets would have a sturdy foundation to build upon for years to come. No longer will they have to wonder how a quarterback or running back may have performed differently with competent offensive line play. They will be able to evaluate their entire offense with no caveats. Players will come to New York and overperform compared to previous stops where they had worse offensive line play, rather than the other way around.
After an elite quarterback, the next-best team-building luxury that a team could have is an elite offensive line. Not coincidentally, the last time the Jets had one, they made back-to-back AFC championship game appearances.
Drafting Membou does not guarantee the Jets’ offensive line will become elite. Still, the Jets would have enough talent at the position to give themselves a very high chance of fielding an elite unit. At the very least, the unit would be too talented to have a floor any lower than “average.” Even that is a luxury New York has seldom enjoyed over the past 14 seasons; they only just returned to an average-ish level in 2024. It is enough to give the rest of the offense a fighting chance.
Yes, in a perfect world, it would be ideal to build out a starting offensive line with at least one and possibly two starters coming from late-round picks or cheap free agent signings. That does not mean you should pass up the opportunity to draft a great offensive line prospect to fill a gaping hole in your line just because you have already drafted other great offensive line prospects in recent years.
1. Trade down
While Membou, Warren, and Graham would be enticing selections, the best-case scenario for New York is to trade down.
The Jets still have a large number of holes to fill in their starting lineup. Accumulating more picks would give them a better opportunity to fill as many of those holes as possible. This is pretty basic thinking, but there are further reasons that a trade-down would be enticing.
New York has a completely revamped regime that is trying to reshape the roster in its image. Building a massive treasure chest of draft assets would be a perfect way to facilitate the rebuilding stage that the Jets find themselves in. It would help the roster become younger, cheaper, and molded more closely to the shared vision of Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey.
While the Jets’ chest of draft picks is certainly not small (they own eight picks total, including each of their own picks through round six), it isn’t excessive, either. According to Tankathon’s draft power rankings, the cumulative value of New York’s draft picks ranks 11th in the NFL. There are four teams slotted beneath the Jets in the first round who possess a more valuable collection of picks (Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco, Seattle). This makes it clear that New York has plenty of room to expand its draft hoard.
Perhaps the Jets can get a desperate QB-needy team to come up for a prospect like Jaxson Dart. Or, if a third QB selection is made before the Jets come on the clock, the Jets can field calls to see if someone wants to come up for the ensuing prospect(s) who fell as a result of the QB reach.
Even after trading down, the Jets should still have multiple opportunities to target the same positions of need. Michigan tight end Colston Loveland, Michigan defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks, and Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons are among the top prospects projected to be taken in the mid-first round. New York may even be able to move down and still get Warren, who is commonly mocked to the Colts at No. 14.
Teams who trade down tend to come out as winners more often than not. Starting his first draft with a trade-down would be a tremendous way for Darren Mougey to kick off his tenure as the Jets’ GM. It’s simple math: more throws at the dartboard equals more chances to hit a bullseye.
