The New York Jets drafted Will McDonald for a reason
Will the New York Jets rue the day they drafted Will McDonald in the first round?
With the way the Jets set up their team, that question may just be answered in the 2024 season. It largely depends on whether they decide to re-sign Bryce Huff. If Huff is no longer with the team in 2024, McDonald will likely take on a feature role in the Jets’ defense. Replacing Huff is no simple task, though.
Still, the Jets have one recent example of an edge rusher who was quiet in his rookie season before breaking onto the stage in 2023. After a silent start to the season, Jermaine Johnson broke out to stake his claim as a top-two edge rusher in his draft class.
The Jets may be counting on McDonald to do the same in 2024. There is plenty of risk involved, as McDonald had fewer snaps this season than Johnson did in 2022. What are the chances that McDonald can make a Johnson-like leap next season?
Efficient pass-rushing
One hopeful sign is that McDonald was a better pass rusher than Johnson in his rookie season. Here is a head-to-head comparison of their numbers.
- 2022 Johnson: 151 pass rush snaps, 9.3% pressure rate, 3 total sacks, 2 QB hits, 11% pass rush win rate
- 2023 McDonald: 99 pass rush snaps, 12.1% pressure rate, 4 total sacks, 1 QB hit, 15.8% pass rush win rate
Johnson might argue that he didn’t see many true pass sets, resulting in this difference. Still, the disparity carried over to true pass sets, as well.
- 2022 Johnson: 50 true pass sets, 14% pressure rate, 1 total sack, 22.9% pass rush win rate
- 2023 McDonald: 47 true pass sets, 17% pressure rate, 3 total sacks, 22.7% pass rush win rate
Johnson and McDonald played virtually the same number of true pass sets as rookies and posted similarly top-notch pass rush win rates. However, McDonald was more productive in affecting the quarterback.
Still, McDonald has a lot of work to do as an edge rusher. He was stonewalled by many tackles, especially ones who got their hands on him first. He needs to have a better counter to the original punch.
McDonald also ends up on the ground a lot, specifically because tackles get their arms on him while he’s trying to bend around the edge.
Furthermore, McDonald is often noticeably late off the snap. He tied for 90th out of 130 edge rushers (min. 90 pass rush snaps) with a 0.90-second average get-off. By contrast, Huff was the sixth-fastest in the league at 0.75 seconds. On the flip side, though, Johnson was at 0.94 seconds in both 2022 and 2023, perhaps indicating that a quick get-off time is not a primary factor in pass rush efficiency.
One last improvement McDonald must make is to take the inside rush more often. When he lines up in the Wide-9 alignment, offensive tackles often take a wide set, expecting an outside rush. McDonald must be able to counter with an inside move to fully take advantage of that.
Work-in-progress run defense
The Jets drafted McDonald as a pure pass rusher. They knew he had some work to do on his run defense but saw potential in that area. Johnson, meanwhile, was drafted as an edge defender with a high floor due to his solid run defense and the possibility to develop into a good pass rusher.
Most of the statistics available for run defense do not create much of a picture of how the player performed. Still, their head-to-head comparison in three categories labels Johnson the clear winner in their respective rookie seasons.
- 2022 Johnson: 158 run defense snaps, 68.7 Pro Football Focus run defense grade, 11.5% missed tackle rate, 9.8% stop rate
- 2023 McDonald: 82 run defense snaps, 63.2 PFF run defense grade, 11.1% missed tackle rate, 4.9% stop rate
The most extreme difference in their numbers is the effect each one had on the run game. Johnson posted a stop rate double McDonald’s.
Still, it’s worth noting that Johnson’s stop rate dropped to 7% in 2023. That may have occurred partially because the Jets started playing him standing up. In the preseason, it was evident that his run defense was better out of a three-point stance. The Jets also stood McDonald up a fair amount, perhaps affecting him as a run defender to a certain extent.
The best way to describe McDonald’s run defense is as PFF did: average. He has room to grow but isn’t a massive liability in that area.
Size
Johnson came into the league at 6-foot-4⅝ and 254 pounds. McDonald entered the NFL at 6-foot-3⅝ and 239 pounds soaking wet. That is a substantial weight difference. Johnson then beefed up significantly in the offseason; though his new weight was never specified, he clearly packed on muscle. It showed up on the field.
Robert Saleh indicated that he believes McDonald can make a similar transition in the 2024 offseason with the benefit of an NFL offseason training program. Just as Micheal Clemons’ weight gain led to worse run defense, though, an increase in muscle does not necessarily lead to better play. This is a particular concern for McDonald, whose biggest attributes are his elite bend and ankle flexion; increased muscle could put more strain on his tendons and ligaments.
One advantage McDonald has over Johnson is arm length. Johnson’s arms are 34 inches long, ranking in the 66th percentile among edge defenders. McDonald’s are 34⅞ inches, ranking in the 90th percentile. That may have led to McDonald’s superior sack rate over Johnson’s as a rookie, and it increases the probability that he can become an impactful pass rusher.
Mistake made
The Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15 against Miami. Their realistic chances of making the playoffs ended several weeks before that, likely during the first Miami matchup in Week 12. They could have increased McDonald’s playing time as their playoff hopes dwindled and disappeared to give him more experience. Instead, they stuck with the status quo.
It was surprising just how little playing time McDonald saw all season. Johnson averaged 22.3 defensive snaps per game in his rookie season (he also missed three games due to injury). McDonald saw just 12.2 per game (and missed two games, one as a healthy scratch and one due to injury). Perhaps McDonald’s rawness against the run could have been a factor, but that doesn’t make much sense when considering that he saw almost as many run defense snaps (82) as pass rush ones (99).
Perhaps the Jets saw 2023 as a sort of redshirt season for McDonald. If so, they did too good of a job of it when they should not have (unlike Zach Wilson’s redshirt season that wasn’t). As a result, they have even less of an evaluation of McDonald in game time than they did of Johnson in 2022.
That’s a big problem if they expect McDonald to fill Huff’s shoes.
Benefit of the doubt
If there’s one thing the Jets’ coaching staff has proven, it’s that they can develop defensive talent. Huff, Johnson, Quincy Williams, Tony Adams, and even Ashtyn Davis have seen big jumps in their performance over their time with Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich. Therefore, even after McDonald had close to a redshirt rookie season, there’s a reason to believe the Jets can develop him, too.
Would the Jets take a Johnson-like leap from McDonald in Year 2? Obviously, it’s not the dominance of Huff, but Johnson was an above-average edge rusher in 2023. A combination of Johnson and McDonald along the edges would give the Jets a very cheap duo who can affect the quarterback.
The Jets can still re-sign Huff if they choose to trade John Franklin-Myers. They seem to be leaning toward letting Huff go, but either possibility can happen. If Huff is not a Jet in 2024, though, McDonald will have massive expectations thrust upon him. Time will tell whether he can fulfill his potential.
Follow Rivka Boord on Twitter @rivka_boord
