The New York Jets are hoping to avoid Dalvin Cook Part II
It’s far down the shopping list, but one of the New York Jets’ sneaky needs going into 2024 is the RB2 spot behind Breece Hall. Outside of Hall, the Jets’ only other running back under contract (excluding players on reserve/future deals) is Israel Abanikanda.
New York has high hopes for Abanikanda, a speedy fifth-round pick from last year’s draft, but he cannot be penciled into the Jets’ RB2 spot after a rookie year where he received little playing time and did not impress when on the field.
Abanikanda only played in six games and finished the year with 3.2 yards per attempt on his 22 carries. Abanikanda also lost a fumble as a kickoff returner and produced just 3.9 yards per target across 11 targets in the passing game. Head coach Robert Saleh mentioned that Abanikanda needed to work on his blocking and that the issue contributed to his lack of playing time.
Perhaps Abanikanda will improve in his second year and make a strong case to be the Jets’ RB2, but the team cannot bank on it. They would be wise to add a reliable veteran backup behind Hall, one who can be counted upon to provide efficient production in a secondary role while Hall is healthy or handle a starting role if Hall goes down.
The Jets attempted to add this type of player in 2023 but swung and missed with Dalvin Cook. They will try to avoid making the same mistake this year.
The free agent running back market is littered with notable names. There are 21 free agent running backs who played at least 200 offensive snaps this year.
Instead of ranking these players in order of their 2023 performance (as we did with the free agent offensive linemen), I thought it would be a better idea to sort these running backs into different groups based on what they bring to the table.
Each of the 21 free agents will be sorted into one of these seven groups:
- Downhill power back
- Speedy home-run threat
- Passing game weapon
- Well-rounded
- High-risk/high-reward gamble
- Meh
- Dalvin Cook Watch
Everyone may have different preferences for what skills they want to see in the Jets’ potential RB2, so I figured that sorting the free agents into groups could help fans identify particular targets that fit what they’re looking for in an RB2.
Let’s dive in.
Downhill power backs
A.J. Dillon
Tied with Derrick Henry as the heaviest running back to take a carry in 2023 (247 pounds), A.J. Dillon is a classic bruiser with the ball in his hands. He’s only averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his career with no runs of more than 40 yards, but he gets his yards in a highly consistent fashion, providing 4-6 yard chunks on a routine basis.
For instance, in 2022, Dillon averaged only 4.1 yards per carry, ranking ninth-worst among running backs with 150+ carries. However, his rushing success rate (percentage of carries yielding positive Expected Points Added) was 46.8%, placed second-best. In 2021, Dillon led the position in success rate at 50.8% despite averaging a middling 4.3 yards per carry. Basically, Dillon is a guy you can count on to keep the offense moving forward even if he won’t hit any home runs.
2023 was a concerning down year for Dillon. He averaged an abysmal career-low of 3.4 yards per carry, the worst among 35 running backs with 150+ carries. His signature consistency dwindled too, as he ranked 29th with a 35.4% success rate.
Dillon will turn 26 in May and has a relatively low total of 683 touches under his belt, so he should have a decent chance of bouncing back. If the Jets want to complement Hall with a power back who offers a stark change of pace to Hall’s home-run speed and lateral running style, Dillon is an option worth considering. They would form a similar duo to the Dillon-Aaron Jones tandem that worked well when Aaron Rodgers was in Green Bay.
Gus Edwards
At 238 pounds, Edwards was the fourth-heaviest running back in 2023 behind Dillon, Henry, and Najee Harris.
Edwards has been a great fit in Baltimore’s power running scheme throughout his career, consistently ranking as one of the NFL’s most efficient runners. He averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of his first four seasons.
Edwards handled the largest role of his career in 2023, playing all 17 games and getting a career-high 210 touches. This led to a decline in rushing efficiency compared to when he was playing a smaller role, as he averaged a career-low 4.1 yards per carry. However, Edwards tied for third with 13 rushing touchdowns.
Still, Edwards was solid in most advanced metrics. He ranked 16th out of 35 qualified running backs (min. 150 carries) with 51 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE). Like Dillon in his peak years, Edwards provided excellent play-to-play consistency through his power running style. Edwards ranked fifth-best with a 44.4% rushing success rate, showing that he provided reliable production if his 4.1 yards per carry was pedestrian.
There are some concerns with Edwards. He will be 29 later this year, has a poor durability track record (30 games missed in six seasons), and has seen all of his success in a favorable Baltimore environment where rushing numbers are consistently improved thanks to the presence of Lamar Jackson and a strong offensive line. It’s fair to wonder whether Edwards can maintain his success in another system, especially at his age.
Nonetheless, Edwards has been so consistently effective in his career that it’s hard to picture him not being a respectable power runner for at least one more season. He’s a good option if the Jets want that kind of guy behind Hall.
Patrick Taylor
Looking for a potential bargain-bin steal? This could be the Jets’ guy.
Taylor is a former undrafted free agent who has 65 carries for the Packers in three years, averaging 4.0 yards per carry with one touchdown. As a receiver, he has not shown much, averaging 2.9 yards per target on 20 career targets with no touchdowns.
While Taylor’s standard stats do not jump off the screen, there are fleeting signs of him being a potential diamond in the rough. Be cautious of the sample size, but these are promising numbers.
For his career, Taylor is averaging 0.2 RYOE per carry, which could make him an above-average rusher if he maintains it. This includes a career-best 0.5 RYOE per carry in 2023 on a career-high 32 carries, which ranked 12th-best among the 85 running backs with at least 30 carries.
Adding to the legitimacy of Taylor’s case is the fact he reached that mark by running consistently well – rather than pumping up the number on one big play. Taylor gained more yards than expected on 40% of his carries, better than the 2023 league average of 38.2% for running backs.
Taylor also displayed signs of excellent tackle-breaking ability. He forced nine missed tackles on just 32 carries, giving him an average of 0.281 missed tackles forced per carry. This ranked fifth-best among 85 qualifiers.
Another feather in Taylor’s cap is his respectable pass-blocking. The Packers trusted him as a blocker, having him play 4.0 pass-blocking snaps per game to tie A.J. Dillon for the team lead among running backs. Taylor did a decent job, allowing four pressures. His allowed pressure rate of 10% ranked 26th-best among the 54 running backs to play at least 30 pass-blocking snaps. It’s slightly better than the position average of 10.9%.
Taylor has good size at 6-foot-2 and 217 pounds, and he isn’t a burner with a forty time of 4.57. His longest career run went for 27 yards. Considering all of this, he is yet another free agent who fits the bill of a power back.
If I have to choose one player on this page who has the best chance of being a bang-for-your-buck diamond in the rough, it’s Taylor. He won’t get paid much due to a tiny sample size of reps, but in those reps, he showed a lot of potential. This is the type of player the Jets might elect to target at running back, as their weaknesses in other areas could prompt them to decide they should keep a tight budget at this position.
Add in his connection to Rodgers and Hackett, and I’d keep a close eye on him.
Latavius Murray
Murray is another big-bodied back at 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds. Unlike Dillon and Edwards, Murray is up there in age at 33 years old, so he will undoubtedly come on a cheap one-year deal.
In a very light role where he only averaged 4.9 carries per game across 16 appearances, Murray still looked like a good power runner for Buffalo this year. While he averaged 3.8 yards per carry, his 44.3% success rate was eighth-best among the 57 running backs with at least 75 carries. Murray also punched in four touchdowns on just 79 carries, with each of them coming from under five yards away.
There are many options who provide more excitement than Murray, but if the Jets just want an ultra-cheap veteran with size who can plow forward to get four yards on first down or convert a short-yardage run, Murray can still do it.
D’Onta Foreman
The 235-pound Foreman is quietly averaging 54.4 rushing yards per game across the past three seasons with 12 rushing touchdowns in 35 games. He is another bruiser who rushes for consistency rather than home runs. Foreman averaged 3.9 yards per carry in 2023 but posted a 40.4% success rate that ranked 17th among the 49 running backs with at least 10 carries.
Speedy home-run threats
Tony Pollard
After four years of highly efficient play as Ezekiel Elliott’s backup, Pollard finally got his chance to be the Cowboys’ workhorse in 2023 (career-high 14.8 carries per game), but he was largely mediocre in the expanded role. Among the 23 running backs with at least 200 carries, Pollard ranked 16th in yards per carry (4.0) and 12th in EPA per carry (-0.10).
Some team out there might give Pollard another chance as a workhorse, but he seems best suited in a complementary role that allows him to stay fresh and maximize his speed. Pollard averaged 5.1 yards per carry over his first four seasons while getting just 8.2 carries per game.
In 2022, Pollard tied for third among running backs with 17 carries for 15+ yards despite ranking 23rd in carries (193). In 2023, Pollard dropped to 11th with only 11 of these runs despite rising to seventh in carries (252).
If Pollard can be had at a price that makes sense for the role, he has proven to be a stellar home-run-threat RB2.
Passing game weapons
D’Andre Swift
While Swift ran for a career-high 1,049 yards in 2023, he underwhelmed compared to expectations behind Philadelphia’s elite offensive line. Swift was expected to average 4.9 yards per carry, per Next Gen Stats, and he actually averaged 4.6. His -0.3 RYOE per carry ranked fifth-worst among the 23 running backs with at least 200 carries.
Swift had his most efficient season as a rusher in 2022 when he had a career-low 99 carries (7.1 per game), averaging a career-best 5.5 yards per carry with 0.4 RYOE per carry.
What Swift has always done well is catch the ball out of the backfield. Since he was drafted in 2020, Swift ranks fourth among running backs in receptions (195), fourth in receiving yards (1,412), and seventh in receiving touchdowns (8). If the Jets want to complement Hall with a third-down-type back who they can trust to catch passes, Swift is one of the best options.
Austin Ekeler
The Chargers refused to negotiate a long-term contract extension with the 28-year-old Ekeler before the season began, and he didn’t do anything to prove them wrong.
Ekeler posted career-lows in yards per carry (3.5) and receiving touchdowns (1) while tying his career-high in fumbles (5). While the Chargers’ offensive line was terrible at run blocking, Ekeler still underperformed, ranking 26th among 35 running backs (min. 150 carries) with -48 rushing yards over expectation.
With 1,430 career touches under his belt as he approaches age 29, Ekeler seems to be on the way down. However, he should still be considered a top-notch weapon in the passing game. He generated 126 yards after catch over expectation in 2023, third-best among running backs. As the active leader among running backs in receiving touchdowns (30), Ekeler is a worthy target in an RB2 role where he can be utilized in the passing game.
Antonio Gibson
The Commanders have gradually phased Gibson out of the run game to the point where he was a quasi-receiver this season. In 16 games, Gibson had 65 carries and 59 targets. Gibson did a nice job with those targets as he posted career-highs in nearly every receiving category. He caught 48-of-59 targets for 389 yards, two touchdowns, and 19 first downs.
Since 2021, Gibson ranks seventh among running backs in both receiving yards (1,036) and receiving touchdowns (7), outperforming his No. 11 ranking in targets (169). He’s been providing good receiving efficiency on high volume for a few years now.
Jerick McKinnon
Still going strong at 31 years old, McKinnon caught four touchdowns for the Chiefs in 2023 on just 32 targets (25 receptions). He’s one year removed from a 2022 season where he caught 56 passes for 512 yards and nine touchdowns.
McKinnon had more targets (32) than carries (21) in 2023.
Well-rounded
Derrick Henry
Henry remains a stud and will probably not be in the Jets’ price range. In 2023, he still offered his signature combination of downhill grit and surprising breakaway speed for his size. Henry ranked sixth among 35 running backs with 3.3 yards after contact per carry while also ranking second with 16 rushes for 15+ yards.
Henry also ranked 11th out of 34 qualifiers with 84 rushing yards over expected and tied for fifth with 12 rushing touchdowns. Someone out there is going to give him a nice bag to help reshape their offensive identity.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley still looks like a solid starting running back at the very least. While he averaged 3.9 yards per carry in 2023, that was actually an impressive mark behind the Giants’ horrendous offensive line, as Barkley finished seventh-best among running backs with 93 rushing yards over expectation. Showing two-way value, he also tied for third at the position with four receiving touchdowns.
I doubt Barkley is in the Jets’ price range, but if his market dips for whatever reason, he would form an excellent one-two punch for his childhood team.
Zack Moss
Moss took the league by storm at the start of 2023 with his excellent production in place of Jonathan Taylor. Despite sliding back into a reserve role once Taylor returned, Moss still finished fourth-best in RYOE among the 35 running backs with at least 150 carries, with 129. That was one spot behind Breece Hall (146).
Moss offers a balanced profile. He’s not an elite home-run hitter, but he did rank seventh among 35 qualifiers with 26% of his rushing yards coming on runs for 15+ yards. He’s also not an elite downhill runner, but he still brings solid consistency as his 39.9% rushing success rate (percentage of carries yielding positive Expected Points Added) was 12th-best and nearly identical to Taylor’s 39.6%.
You also get strong ball security from Moss, who has three career fumbles on 559 touches.
I expect someone to take a shot on Moss as a lead back, especially considering the light mileage on his tires, but if he lands in the RB2 price range, the Jets would be wise to give him a call.
High-risk/high-reward gambles
Josh Jacobs
Jacobs is a difficult player to understand, as his career arc has been a roller coaster. After averaging 4.8 yards per carry in a breakout rookie year, he stooped to 3.9 and 4.0 over the next two seasons. He suddenly came back to life with a dominant 2022 season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and leading the NFL in rushing yards.
Jacobs came crashing back down in 2023, dropping to a career-low 3.5 yards per carry. This was behind a pretty good Raiders offensive line. Jacobs accumulated -86 RYOE, the second-worst mark among the 23 running backs with at least 200 carries. According to PFF, Jacobs also had the worst elusiveness rating (32.2) among the 35 running backs with at least 150 carries.
I strongly considered putting Jacobs in the Dalvin Cook Watch group. You can argue he should be there. However, considering he is still only 25 (he’ll be 26 next month), is just one season removed from an incredible year, and has a history of bouncing back from bad years, I think there are enough reasons for optimism to where I’d consider Jacobs a worthy gamble at the right price.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Kansas City’s former first-round pick is a bust relative to his draft slot. He’s careened into a backup role by year four, getting only 87 touches in 15 games this season.
In the run game, Edwards-Helaire averaged just 3.2 yards per carry this season. He has struggled in that phase throughout his entire career, averaging -0.4 RYOE per carry or worse in all four of his NFL seasons.
However, Edwards-Helaire offers intriguing upside as a receiver.
In his career, Edwards-Helaire has caught 89-of-122 targets for 765 yards, seven touchdowns, and 38 first downs while generating positive yards after catch over expectation in every season. Since he was drafted in 2020, Edwards-Helaire ranks 13th out of 45 running backs (min. 100 targets) in yards per target with 6.3. He also ranks third in the percentage of his targets resulting in a touchdown (5.7%) and ninth in receiving success rate (50.8%).
Those numbers could just be a product of Kansas City’s system, but they’re still intriguing, and Edwards-Helaire was drafted in the first round largely for the receiving skills he displayed at LSU. In the right situation, he could be turned into a unique weapon as a receiver and/or gadget weapon.
Still, Edwards-Helaire’s career rushing performance is troubling. Before you add him to your offense as a true RB2 and start handing him the ball, you need him to show substantial improvement in that phase. Otherwise, he should be considered a non-option in the run game who is solely limited to designed touches as a receiver or on trick plays.
There’s talent to work with here, but a lot of risk.
Meh
Devin Singletary
Speed has never been the name of Singletary’s game. He ran a 4.66 in the forty and hasn’t had a run for more than 33 yards since 2021 (he didn’t go past 24 yards on 216 totes in 2023). Singletary also isn’t much of a receiving threat, offering only four receiving touchdowns in five seasons. He struggles with blocking, too, allowing four sacks in 2023. On top of it all, he has 14 career fumbles (2.8 per season).
All you really get from Singletary is middle-of-the-pack rushing on a yearly basis. He’s ranged from 4.2 to 4.6 yards per carry in each of his past four seasons. In 2023, he posted 0.2 RYOE per carry, ranking 14th out of the 23 running backs with at least 200 carries.
However, Singletary’s 4.2 yards per carry in 2023 was a career-low. That’s a red flag considering Singletary’s mileage. Singletary recently crossed the 1,000-touch mark for his career.
I don’t see much appeal with Singletary. He’s always been mediocre and is trending down. You can do a lot worse with an RB2 if he maintains his career-long level of league-average rushing production, but he’s not guaranteed to pull that off, and his floor is lowered by his struggles in non-rushing areas.
Josh Kelley
There’s never been anything to write home about with Kelley. He’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry in four seasons with a career-high of 4.2, and has posted negative RYOE per carry in every season. He is a non-factor in the passing game with a career average of 5.9 receiving yards per game. Kelley also has four fumbles on 370 touches.
Pass.
Matt Breida
Raheem Mostert’s 2023 breakout could direct attention toward his former 49ers teammate and fellow speedster Matt Breida. However, there isn’t any reason to believe Breida is capable of replicating what Mostert did. Breida only averaged 2.7 yards per carry in 2023, which is brutal even behind the Giants’ offensive line.
The speed element of Breida’s game has been gone for a while. He hasn’t recorded a run for more than 28 yards since 2019.
As a former speed-based runner who no longer offers breakaway potential at 29 years old, Breida doesn’t bring anything to the table. Pass.
Rico Dowdle
Dowdle was an undrafted free agent in 2020 who barely played for the Cowboys through his first three seasons before emerging as Tony Pollard’s backup in 2023. Unlike Pollard during his stint as the backup, Dowdle did not show much intrigue in his reserve role.
On 89 carries, Dowdle averaged 4.1 yards per carry and failed to display home-run ability as his longest run went for just 21 yards. Dowdle also wasn’t consistent, earning a 37.1% success rate. He underperformed compared to his blocking, averaging -0.1 RYOE per carry. There isn’t much to be inspired by.
Dalvin Cook Watch
When digging into the advanced metrics behind Dalvin Cook’s 2022 season with the Vikings, you could see countless red flags that warned Cook had a high likelihood of flopping in 2023. The Jets ignored these red flags and signed him anyway.
Here are two big-name free agents who carry similar red flags to the ones Cook had.
Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott will be 29 in July, has 2,421 career touches under his belt, and has set new career-lows in yards per carry in back-to-back seasons (3.8 in 2022, 3.5 in 2023). In 2023, he ranked fourth-worst out of 35 qualified running backs in elusiveness rating, per PFF (36.7).
Stay away.
You can argue Elliott remains a decent power back, as he does still do a decent job of barreling forward at the end of his runs. In 2023, Elliott ranked seventh-best out of 35 running backs with 41.8% of his runs resulting in positive yards above expectation. This shows you that he is effective at consistently taking what’s available.
However, considering Elliott still ranked sixth-worst with -71 total RYOE despite his high rate of positive runs, this means he was probably only getting one extra yard on most of those positive runs, and that over the long haul, his severe lack of explosion and elusiveness was far more costly than his power was valuable.
Despite his reputation for being a solid blocker, Elliott led all running backs with 12 pressures allowed in 2023.
The Jets should not even think about calling Elliott.
Kareem Hunt
Hunt was a widely discussed option among Jets fans in 2023, but his performance this year should completely remove him from the team’s radar going forward unless they want another Cook situation.
At 28 years old with 1,106 career touches entering the season, Hunt looked like he ran out of gas in 2023. He averaged a horrifying career-low of 3.0 yards per carry, third-worst among the 49 running backs with at least 100 carries.
When it came to self-creation, Hunt was arguably the worst running back in the league among those who received a similar number of carries. His -101 total RYOE was tied for second-worst among the 49 running backs with at least 100 carries. Hunt was also last in yards after contact per carry (2.2) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.05).
Cleveland’s offensive line suffered some injuries but was still decent. After all, there were three other running backs on the team who got at least 20 carries and all of them averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry.
This continues a downward trend for Hunt that began in 2022. He has set career lows in both yards per carry and yards per target in back-to-back seasons, dropping by at least 0.8 in both categories each season.
No thanks.
