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Super Bowl best prop bets: Non-quarterback for MVP?

Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco

Super Bowl NFL Betting Lines, Odds, Spreads

Odds via ESPN BET Sportsbook

  • San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs: -1.5 (-115)

Are the Kansas City Chiefs the new New England Patriots?

It sure seems like it after the Chiefs secured a spot in their fourth Super Bowl in five years. A victory would make them the first back-to-back champions since the Patriots in 2003-04, which is difficult to believe considering New England’s run of dominance.

Patrick Mahomes attempts to join Tom Brady, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, and Troy Aikman as the only quarterbacks to win at least three Super Bowls. Brady and Bradshaw were 27 when they won their third Super Bowl, while Aikman was 29 and Montana was 32. Mahomes is now 28.

Does anyone dare pick against these Chiefs in the Super Bowl, even though they don’t seem as dominant as in years past? Brady is the only one to hamper Mahomes thus far in the big game. Can another late-round cast-off be the second?

There is a lot of hype surrounding Brock Purdy after his 17-point comeback effort in the second half against the Detroit Lions. Still, that masks the fact that Purdy made some very poor decisions in the game, including two turnover-worthy plays.

The Chiefs are narrow betting favorites right now, and the spread will likely remain close. The 49ers nearly beat the Chiefs in 2019 even with prime Tyreek Hill on the field. Still, many prop bets could change over the next two weeks, so make your best bets now before they’re no longer available.

Super Bowl MVP: Isiah Pacheco (+3500)

If you think Kansas City is going to win, it’s foolish to bet against Patrick Mahomes. However, the +125 odds warrant another choice. San Francisco’s defense has shown some holes in the run game over the past two weeks, allowing 136 ground yards to Green Bay and 182 to Detroit. Isiah Pacheco has posted 88, 111, and 82 scrimmage yards in the Chiefs’ three playoff games, all against stingy run defenses.

The last time a running back won Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1997, and 14 of the 23 MVPs this century have been quarterbacks. Still, no one in the Chiefs’ passing game is likely to win over Mahomes (even Travis Kelce), making Pacheco the only other candidate worth choosing.

First Chiefs drive outcome: Field goal attempt (+340)

The Chiefs have scored on their first drive in eight consecutive playoff games. Why not a ninth? It’s hard to pick a touchdown because the 49ers’ strength is their linebacker corps, which is exactly where Kelce will be matching up. Still, I don’t think the 49ers’ defense will be able to consistently harass Mahomes, even with the suspect Chiefs tackle situation.

Patrick Mahomes longest completion: Under 33.5 yards (+115)

In three playoff games, Mahomes has one completion of more than 33.5 yards. The 49ers have allowed one completion of more than 33.5 yards in two games. Although Mahomes had 16 such passes in the regular season and the 49ers’ defense allowed 11, Kansas City’s approach to moving the ball has been more methodical than explosive. Even the deep passes to Marquez Valdez-Scantling haven’t been for over 33.5 yards. Go with the under here.

George Kittle: Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110)

Kittle was quiet against Detroit, catching his two targets for 27 yards. He was much more active the week before against Green Bay, putting up 81 yards on four catches (seven targets). While the Chiefs ranked 10th in DVOA against tight ends during the regular season, they allowed 47.4 receiving yards per game to the position. Dalton Kincaid caught five balls for 45 yards against Kansas City. I think San Francisco will work the tight ends and running backs in place of their receivers, putting Kittle in a prime position to rack up yardage.

Brock Purdy: Over 0.5 interceptions (-110)

Purdy has thrown one pick in two playoff games, but he has three turnover-worthy plays. The Chiefs have two interceptions in three playoff games. Purdy threw four picks against Baltimore in Week 16. I think the Chiefs will harass him enough to force him into a bad decision.

George Karlaftis: Over 0.5 sacks (+110)

Karlaftis has a sack in two of three playoff games (2.5 total). He recorded 10.5 sacks during the regular season lining up primarily on the left side of the defensive line. That means he draws a matchup with 49ers right tackle Colt McKivitz, who allowed nine sacks during the regular season and has a 10.1% pressure rate allowed in the postseason (although no sacks). The 49ers do a good job scheming away from their poor pass protection, but I think Karlaftis has a good chance to get to Purdy.

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