Should the New York Jets reunite David Bakhtiari and Aaron Rodgers?

We recently discussed the possibility of the New York Jets reuniting Aaron Rodgers with his former starting guard, Jon Runyan.

Now it’s time to evaluate another Packers offensive lineman that could follow Rodgers to Florham Park: five-time All-Pro David Bakhtiari.

Unlike Runyan, Bakhtiari is not slated to become a free agent this year. He’s entering the final year of his four-year, $92 million contract with Green Bay.

However, considering Bakhtiari’s gigantic cap number in 2024 ($40 million) and his chronic injury woes over the past few seasons, it seems likely that Green Bay will release the veteran left tackle. The Packers would save $20.9 million by cutting Bakhtiari.

If the Packers cut Bakhtiari as expected, the Jets will immediately become the favorites to sign him. Not only do the Jets have a gaping hole at left tackle, but Bakhtiari is one of Rodgers’ closest friends.

In April of last year, shortly after Rodgers was officially traded to the Jets, Bakhtiari penned a heartfelt goodbye to Rodgers on Instagram, writing, “The chapter is over on this one, but this friendship is a lifetime. You’ve been so instrumental in my life and I just wanna say thank you. And I love you brother.”

Rodgers has even hinted at his desire for Bakhtiari to come join him in New York via posts on social media.

Should the Jets pounce on Bakhtiari if he hits the open market? Let’s break down his profile.

Jets free agent profiles:

Basic info

  • Age: 32.3
  • Height: 6-foot-4
  • Weight: 310 pounds
  • College: Colorado
  • Experience: 11 years (Drafted Round 4, Pick 109 by Green Bay in 2013)
  • Teams: Packers (2013-present)
  • Previous contract: 4 years, $92M (Signed in November 2020)

Measurables

  • Data from 2013 Combine (via Mockdraftable)
  • Percentiles among all-time offensive tackle prospects

David-Bakhtiari-NY-Jets-Profile-2024

  • Height: 6’4″ (8th percentile)
  • Weight: 299 pounds (7th)
  • Arm length: 34in (46th)
  • Hand size: 9.5in (13th)
  • 40-yard dash: 5.09s (82nd)
  • Vertical jump: 25.5in (19th)
  • Broad jump: 101in (39th)
  • 3-cone drill: 7.7s (58th)
  • 20-yard shuttle: 4.74 (49th)
  • Bench press: 28 reps (76th)

Bakhtiari recorded a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 6.72/10.

Role

Bakhtiari won the Packers’ starting left tackle job as a rookie and has never relinquished it. He started at left tackle in all 131 of his career appearances.

Bakhtiari has never started at another position besides left tackle, although he’s played six snaps at right guard, five snaps at left guard, and three snaps at right tackle.

Career production

Unbeatable pass blocker over his five-year peak

Simply put, Bakhtiari was on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory after the conclusion of 2020 (and he very well still could make it in). As we remain rightfully skeptical of the Jets signing him due to his injury track record, let’s just make sure we keep in mind how dominant of a player we’re talking about. This isn’t some random lineman who happened to play with Aaron Rodgers.

Bakhtiari is a five-time All-Pro, earning the distinction in five consecutive seasons from 2016 to 2020. He was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 and 2020 while he made the second team in the other three seasons.

Throughout his career, Bakhtiari’s calling card has been his elite pass-blocking on the blindside. It took him a few years to hit his peak, but once he did, he was an immovable object for a half-decade.

Over his five-year run as an All-Pro (2016-20), Bakhtiari allowed only 101 total pressures on 3,072 pass-blocking snaps, which is a pressure rate of 3.29%. That is an utterly dominant number. For perspective, it would have been the best rate in 2023 among left tackles with at least 400 pass-blocking snaps – narrowly beating out Tyron Smith, who took the top spot at 3.36%.

Still a dominant pass-blocker when healthy over past three seasons

Since his five-year run of All-Pro appearances, Bakhtiari’s career has been decimated by injuries, as he’s played in just 13 games over the past three seasons. Despite his inability to stay healthy, Bakhtiari has remained equally dominant when on the field.

From 2021 to 2023, Bakhtiari allowed only 10 pressures on 369 pass-blocking snaps, giving him a pressure rate of 2.71% that is even better than the 3.29% rate he posted from 2016 to 2020. Even more impressively, all 10 of those pressures were merely hurries. Bakhtiari allowed zero sacks or hits over the past three seasons.

Most of Bakhtiari’s appearances over this span came in 2022, when he played 11 games. He only played one game apiece in 2021 and 2023. Still, Bakhtiari allowed zero pressures on 20 pass-blocking snaps in his lone 2021 appearance, and in his lone 2023 appearance, he allowed zero pressures on 30 pass-blocking snaps.

Perhaps Bakhtiari’s latest injury will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, but to this point, Bakhtiari’s injuries are yet to affect his production on the field.

Good run blocker, although not as dominant as his pass blocking

The pass game is where Bakhtiari shines, although he is still capable of thriving as a run blocker. Since 2016, his yearly average run-blocking grade at Pro Football Focus (weighted for snap count) is 70.2. This would have ranked 27th out of 83 qualified tackles in 2023 (68th percentile).

In 2022, Bakhtiari ranked 29th out of 74 qualified tackles (62nd percentile) with a 68.4 run-blocking grade at PFF.

Injury history

Bakhtiari was reliable over his first seven seasons, playing in 106 out of 112 possible regular season games (94.6%) through the 2019 season. That’s 15.1 games per season.

The problems began in 2020. Bakhtiari missed three games in the middle of the year with a chest injury, although he returned for the next seven games. On December 31, Bakhtiari suffered a torn ACL in practice that knocked him out for the season finale and Green Bay’s two ensuing playoff games. This injury began a chain of knee issues that Bakhtiari is yet to recover from.

The late timing of Bakhtiari’s 2020 ACL injury ended up costing him basically the entire 2021 season. He was activated on November 10, 2021, but was ruled inactive for every game except the season finale, when he played 20 first-half snaps before reaggravating the injury and sitting the remainder of the game. Despite Green Bay earning a first-round bye, Bakhtiari was ruled inactive for the team’s Divisional loss against San Francisco.

Bakhtiari’s injury lingered into 2022 as he missed the first two games of the season. He made his season debut in Week 3, although in a platoon role. In Week 4, Bakhtiari finally played a full game for the first time since Week 16 of 2020.

However, the good fortune didn’t last long. Bakhtiari fought through an injury-riddled 2022 season in which his knee continuously bothered him. He missed one game in Week 7 due to his knee, and although he returned for the next five games, he was listed on the injury report as questionable in each game, and he missed 43% of the team’s snaps in one of those games as he exited early due to injury.

Bakhtiari then missed three games with an emergency appendectomy, returning for Green Bay’s final two games. He finished 2022 with 11 games played, and of those 11 games, he only managed to play 100% of the snaps in five of them.

Despite this, Bakhtiari played extremely well when on the field in 2022, allowing zero sacks and 10 total pressures on 339 pass-blocking snaps (2.95% pressure rate).

Bakhtiari started the Packers’ 2023 season opener and played 92% of the snaps but never appeared again. He was placed on injured reserve after Week 4 due to a season-ending arthroscopic surgery to his left knee, which doctors were “confident has a cartilage issue.”

Speaking on the surgery, Bakhtiari expressed frustration but seemed confident the surgery could finally put him on the right track. Per the NY Post, he said, “I hate it. I know the club hates it. It’s just not a great situation for anyone to deal with. The human side of it, it took a lot of stress, a lot of time on my end, but the clarity is to know we finally know what the problem is, and we can address the problem.

“That’s the, I guess, glass-half-full part of the scenario. So, that’s where we’re at. That’s the pill I have to swallow.”

It was Bakhtiari’s fifth surgery since his 2020 ACL injury.

The surgery addressed the lateral femoral condyle cartilage tear from the initial injury. Bakhtiari says it wasn’t fixed in the first surgery because there was a chance that it would not cause issues in the future.

“I could’ve been asymptomatic the entire time with that issue, and by addressing it we [might have] just added in a problem that didn’t need to be,” Bakhtiari said. “That’s why it’s like, let’s go ahead and try and see if this is a problem. If it’s not, then great, then we continue on, we dodged a bullet and life is good.

“But now knowing that it is [a problem] would’ve been nice. Hindsight’s 20/20.”

The verdict

On the field, there isn’t much to evaluate with Bakhtiari. He’s been a superstar and has a good chance of making it to the Hall of Fame. The entire conversation revolves around his health.

First off, we have to wonder what type of player Bakhtiari will be when we see him again. Would the Jets be getting a shell of the Bakhtiari that we saw in Green Bay?

The good news is that his recent injuries are yet to affect him on the field. He remained a fantastic player in 2022 despite his surgically repaired knee constantly bothering him throughout the year. And while we shouldn’t judge him on one game in 2023, he was stellar during that game (0 pressures on 30 pass-block snaps, 0 penalties, 68.6 run-block grade).

Bakhtiari’s maintained on-field efficiency over the past three years is a promising sign that he should have a good chance of continuing to play at a high level in the future when healthy. He’ll also be 33 years old this year, which, for an elite offensive lineman, is really not that old. Bakhtiari should have had a few years of his prime left if the injuries never happened (a huge “if”, of course).

Even if Bakhtiari takes one or two steps back following his latest surgery, he was playing at such a high level at his peak that even a slightly-declined version of Bakhtiari would probably be an above-average left tackle. He had an argument to be the game’s best left tackle at one point. Dropping 10-15 spots on the leaderboard still makes him a good player.

Still, Bakhtiari has been through a lot by this point. Five knee surgeries in three years is downright staggering. Many players would have called it quits by now. For him to even consider playing is a feat in itself.

The stockpiling of surgeries drops Bakhtiari’s on-field floor to an extremely low level. Despite Bakhtiari’s Hall-of-Fame talent at his peak and his maintained elite efficiency through the injuries in recent years, there is a very realistic chance that he could come back and look like a terrible player.

More than anything, you don’t even know how many games Bakhtiari will give you – or if he will play at all. In two of the past three seasons, he played one game.

At the end of the day, Bakhtiari is far too unreliable for the Jets to view him as a penciled-in starting option, no matter how great of a player he once was. It would be foolish for the Jets to sign Bakhtiari as their starting left tackle without having another starting-caliber tackle in place to fall back on in case he flames out.

Bakhtiari’s value on the open market will be greatly hindered by his unreliability. There is no way a team can justify guaranteeing him anything beyond one year. Even on a one-year deal, it would be incredibly risky to allocate a large amount of cap space on a player who is averaging four games per season over the past three years.

Most likely, Bakhtiari will have to settle for a one-year deal on a low number. Personally, I cannot see him earning more than $4-5 million at the absolute maximum. I could be wrong about that, as it does seem very low for a player of Bakhtiari’s pedigree, but if I’m an NFL team, how could I give anything more to a player who’s had five knee surgeries since 2021? Maybe he signs for a more lucrative number with incentives based on games played.

Any other player with Bakhtiari’s current injury situation would likely be out of the NFL. He’s only going to be considered by teams because he’s proven himself to be the best of the best. But even with that level of talent, most teams will still be scared of him. Only the most desperate of teams will consider giving him a call, and that’s what could lead him to the Jets – who have the connections to boot.

Bakhtiari’s familiarity with Rodgers, Nathaniel Hackett, and the Jets’ offensive scheme is a nice plus that should help him transition smoothly on the field. With more than enough off-field concerns around him, it would be nice for the Jets to have no worries about how he will transition on the field. No team provides a better environment than the Jets for Bakhtiari to translate his Green Bay production.

There are reasons this could make sense for New York. They desperately need offensive line talent, and Bakhtiari is one of the most talented offensive linemen of this generation. His connections to the quarterback and offensive coordinator should make him a relatively easy player to attract, and they will help him transition smoothly. He also can be signed affordably, which is key for a team on a tight budget.

So, this is how I’d put it. If the Jets are fully confident in Bakhtiari’s medical situation and he could be had on a cheap one-year deal that offers minimal guarantees outside of games-played incentives, I would be okay with the Jets adding him on one condition: he is not viewed as a starting solution.

The Jets cannot sign Bakhtiari and pretend they have a starting spot filled. If you sign Bakhtiari, you’re simply adding a high-upside wild-card into the mix. The expectation is that he gives you nothing.

Picture Bakhtiari as one of those insane eight-leg parlays you throw $5 on, hoping to win $10,000. You never expect these to hit, so you don’t fully rely on them. You hedge your bets by putting out some easier, higher-percentage props to hopefully make your money back at the least.

New York would need to complement Bakhtiari with a safe bet they can fall back on when their insane eight-leg parlay inevitably does not hit.

Presumably, the Jets will draft an offensive tackle in the first round. That fills one starting spot. But the Jets need to add one other legitimate veteran starter before that, not including Bakhtiari (or Alijah Vera-Tucker). They must have a true starter-caliber tackle on the roster who is ready to go for 17 games if Bakhtiari fizzles – not a “high-end backup”.

Who is that player? That is a question I’m not exactly sure how to answer, as the free agent tackle market is thin this year.

Players like Andrus Peat and Chris Hubbard put up league-average numbers among qualified tackles last year, so maybe that would suffice. Jermaine Eluemunor posted great numbers for two consecutive years, although the Raiders’ valuation of him suggests those numbers are misleading.

George Fant is an excellent option based on his 2023 performance, but his relationship with the Jets seemed to sour. Jonah Williams has first-round talent but his production in Cincinnati hasn’t quite lived up to it. Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu put up excellent numbers last year, but they each have questions of their own, whether it’s scheme fit, price, or in Brown’s case, his injury history. Perhaps there is someone available on the trade market who we’re not talking about.

Whatever solution they come up with, the bottom line is that David Bakhtiari only makes sense for the Jets if he is added as nothing more than a wild-card – not a solution.

If Bakhtiari comes in, proves he’s healthy, and wins a starting spot, then great! Start him at left tackle and ride him until the wheels fall off. The ceiling is as high as it can get. He’s arguably the best pass-blocking left tackle of the past decade, and he knows this system well.

But the Jets have to assume Bakhtiari will fail. That’s why they cannot merely complement him with a “backup plan.” He is the backup plan.

The Jets would have to get another legitimate starting tackle and treat Bakhtiari as a lottery ticket. If they sign Bakhtiari without doing this, I can almost guarantee they will regret it.