No time to waste on an intro: We’ve got stats to predict!
For the sake of simplicity, these predictions will be predicated upon the assumption that each player appears in 17 games.
Justin Fields
As a baseline for our prediction, here are Fields’ stats over his last 17 starts.
- 293 for 464 passing (63.1%)
- 3,241 pass yards (7.0 yards per attempt / 190.6 per game)
- 19 pass touchdowns
- 7 interceptions
- 50 sacks for 340 yards
- 166 rushes for 826 yards (5.0 yards per attempt / 48.6 per game)
- 8 rush touchdowns
- 4 lost fumbles
- 3,727 total net yards (219.2 per game)
- 27 total touchdowns to 11 turnovers
- 91.2 passer rating
Let’s adjust these numbers based on a couple of factors.
Firstly, I believe Fields will throw the ball even less often than his already-low volume throughout his career. Some of those attempts will turn into carries for the Jets’ running backs, and others will turn into more carries for Fields himself. So, I expect a drop in pass attempts for Fields and a rise in rush attempts.
I also think Fields’ rushing efficiency will increase. His 5.0 yards per attempt over his last 17 starts is below his career average of 6.0, a decline that can be largely pinned on the overly conservative offense that Pittsburgh called for him over his six starts there (when he averaged just 4.2 YPC). I expect him to trend back toward his career average of 6.0 YPC.
Finally, I think Fields is due for an uptick in turnovers. As we discussed in a recent breakdown, Fields was abnormally lucky over his last 17 starts when it came to how often his turnover-worthy throws and fumbles were converted to interceptions and lost fumbles.
With these factors in mind, here are my predictions for Fields’ 2025 season.
- 280 for 450 passing (62.2%)
- 3,060 pass yards (6.8 yards per attempt / 180.0 per game)
- 16 pass touchdowns
- 10 interceptions
- 40 sacks for 275 yards
- 180 rushes for 1,080 yards (6.0 yards per attempt / 63.5 per game)
- 8 rush touchdowns
- 6 lost fumbles
- 3,865 total net yards (227.4 per game)
- 24 total touchdowns to 16 turnovers
- 84.7 passer rating
On the positive side, this would be the lowest sack rate of Fields’ career at 8.2%. That would still rank worse than average among NFL starters, but it is a massive improvement upon his abysmal career average of 11.9%. While the Jets’ quality offensive line cannot completely erase Fields’ sack-proneness, it should help reduce his sacks to a certain extent.
While the 6.8 yards per attempt would be Fields’ career-low by a small margin (it is currently 6.9, which he has done three times), the sack reduction would actually make this his best career season in terms of net yards per attempt (5.7), which includes sacks and sack yardage in the calculation. He set a career high of 5.6 last season, and his career average is 5.3.
However, I think the turnovers are due to climb. I have him committing five more than he did over his previous 17 starts, rising from 11 to 16.
I also see Fields’ completion percentage dropping a few points from his career best 65.8% in Pittsburgh. That is not necessarily a bad thing, as Fields mostly reached that number because he was throwing a plethora of checkdowns. I think he will be a little more aggressive in New York – not too much, though, as I feel that the Jets’ coaches still want him to be a game manager, but they will not go to Pittsburgh’s extent.
With Fields’ stats established, we can proceed to the receivers.
Receivers
We have 450 targets, 280 receptions, 3,060 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns to disperse throughout the Jets’ offense.
In a world where everyone plays 17 games, this is how I see it shaking out.
- Garrett Wilson: 85 receptions, 130 targets, 1,150 yards, 6 TD
- Mason Taylor: 50 receptions, 70 targets, 540 yards, 3 TD
- Breece Hall: 40 receptions, 63 targets, 350 yards, 2 TD
- Arian Smith: 25 receptions, 52 targets, 350 yards, 1 TD
- Josh Reynolds: 20 receptions, 35 targets, 200 yards, 1 TD
- Jelani Woods: 20 receptions, 35 targets, 180 yards, 1 TD
- Allen Lazard: 12 receptions, 20 targets, 120 yards, 1 TD
- Isaiah Davis: 16 receptions, 25 targets, 100 yards, 1 TD
- Stone Smartt: 6 receptions, 10 targets, 90 yards, 0 TD
- Braelon Allen: 6 receptions, 10 targets, 70 yards, 0 TD
The Jets’ passing attack has numerous question marks, but the outlook is rosy for the Justin Fields-Garrett Wilson connection.
Fields has a positive history with No. 1 receivers, best evidenced by D.J. Moore’s breakout year when he joined the Bears in 2023. Wilson should have a strong year, particularly with his deep game, which is why I have him averaging a career-best 13.5 yards per reception.
Unfortunately, though, with Fields barely eclipsing 3,000 yards and over a third of those going to one player, there isn’t much to go around for everyone else. I think Mason Taylor and Breece Hall will solidify themselves as the second and third options, but their yardage and touchdown numbers won’t be pretty, as they will mostly eat up checkdowns with Fields playing the game manager role.
While I think Arian Smith will eventually emerge as the No. 2 wide receiver, his production will come sporadically with large chunks of yardage at a time – I have him averaging a team-best 14 yards per reception. I don’t see him being a consistent threat in Year 1 with Fields at quarterback, but he will make his share of explosive plays.
Rushers
The average NFL offense had 1,057 combined pass attempts, rush attempts, and sacks in 2024. That gives us a solid baseline to predict how many rush attempts the Jets will have in 2025.
So far, we’ve predicted the Jets to accumulate 490 pass attempts (450) and sacks (40). If we subtract that from 1,057, we are left with 567 rush attempts, which would have ranked second in the NFL behind the Philadelphia Eagles last year.
The run game will be the focal point of the Jets’ offense this year. Here is how I see it shaping up.
- Justin Fields: 180 rushes, 1,080 yards, 8 TD (6.0 YPC)
- Braelon Allen: 175 rushes, 735 yards, 6 TD (4.2 YPC)
- Breece Hall: 160 rushes, 735 yards, 4 TD (4.6 YPC)
- Isaiah Davis: 40 rushes, 176 yards, 1 TD (4.4 YPC)
- Arian Smith: 8 rushes, 40 yards, 1 TD (5.0 YPC)
- Garrett Wilson: 4 rushes, 25 yards, 0 TD (6.3 YPC)
With Hall significantly outpacing Allen in pass-game snaps and targets, I think Allen will take a slight edge in carries. Allen will score more touchdowns and be more consistent from down to down, but Hall will gain more yardage per carry, as the smaller role should allow him to stay fresher and hit some home runs.
Fields, though, will lead the run game, through a combination of designed rush attempts, option plays, and scrambles.
Davis will occasionally be thrown in to change the pace, but his role should lean more to the pass game.
I fully expect Smith and Wilson to occasionally take handoffs out of jet motion.
This would leave the Jets with team totals of 2,791 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns, which would have ranked third and seventh, respectively, in the 2024 season. Their 4.92 yards per carry would have ranked fifth-best.
Team offense
Our individual predictions can be combined to form team-wide predictions for the Jets’ offense.
Shown in parentheses are the rankings that each number would have earned in the 2024 season.
Passing offense
- Passing yards: 2,785 (32nd)
- Passing touchdowns: 16 (31st)
- Net yards per pass attempt: 5.7 (26th)
- Passer rating: 84.7 (25th)
These predictions might seem pessimistic, but the 5.7 net yards per attempt would be a career high for Fields, so the Jets can’t be surprised if things play out this way.
Thanks to Garrett Wilson and a strong pass-blocking offensive line, I do not see this being quite as bad as a bottom-five passing attack in terms of efficiency, which I conveyed through their mid-twenties rankings in net yards per attempt and passer rating. The lower rankings in total yards and touchdowns are due to volume.
Still, even if the Jets jacked up their pass attempts, the ceiling for passing numbers simply isn’t high with Fields at quarterback. Based on his career track record and the Jets’ lack of depth at wide receiver, I have a hard time seeing his efficiency going much further than the mid-twenties.
Rushing offense
- Rushing yards: 2,791 (3rd)
- Rushing touchdowns: 20 (T-7th)
- Yards per rush attempt: 4.9 (5th)
New York’s goal is to make up for its lack of passing production with high-efficiency rushing on extremely high volume.
The run game won’t be enough on its own to make the Jets an above-average overall offense if the pass game cannot escape the bottom 10, but if they can achieve rushing numbers of this magnitude, their overall offense might be close to average despite the pass game.
That is how things pan out in our predictions.
Total offense
- Total yards: 5,576 (16th)
- Total touchdowns: 36 (T-21st)
- Turnovers: 20 (16th)
On the strength of their run game and offensive line, I can foresee the Jets being a league-average offense from a yardage perspective. They should be able to put together some lengthy drives each week. I also think they will be a strong team at finishing touchdowns near the goal line.
However, I think the Jets will struggle with their performance in the high red zone (10-20 yard line), which is why I see them scoring fewer touchdowns relative to their ranking in total yards. Once the field shrinks and the Jets can no longer move the ball on checkdowns, they will end up settling for some field goals. Thus, their performance in the yardage column will slightly outpace their performance on the scoreboard.
The good news is that the Jets’ run-heavy approach should help them keep turnovers down. Running the ball frequently is a safe way to avoid turnovers, as a turnover is much less likely on a run play than a pass play. That shows in my prediction for the Jets’ team-wide stats.
Although my prediction of 16 turnovers for Fields is a high rate relative to his paltry number of dropbacks, it is actually quite pedestrian as a total for the whole season, and that’s because the Jets will barely ask him to throw the ball. Committing 16 turnovers in 17 starts is an average of 0.94 turnovers per start; in 2024, that would have been fewer than 16 other quarterbacks who started at least five games.
With that baseline, the Jets can finish as an average offense in total turnovers as long as the supporting cast minimizes its fumbles.
Last year, the Jets’ non-quarterbacks lost six fumbles (two apiece by Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson and one apiece by Malachi Corley and Xavier Gipson). Corley is gone, but Gipson was kept, which isn’t good for this category due to Gipson’s muffed-punt woes. Hall is due to come down after losing one over his first two seasons, although Wilson has lost 1-2 each year of his career.
Allen and Davis have strong track records of ball security, which is great news. So, with the reduction of Corley’s fluke fumble and Hall due to come down by at least one lost fumble, I will cut the Jets down to four lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks. Add that to Fields’ 16 turnovers, and it brings them to 20 turnovers as a team, which would have tied Arizona for the 16th-fewest last season. That would be a nice placement for a franchise that is used to ranking much lower in this area.
Ultimately, in terms of DVOA, EPA, or whatever other efficiency metric you prefer, I predict New York to field a top-five run game and a bottom-10 pass game, which would likely put them in the early twenties as an overall offense (top 20-24).
They could push into the above-average tier if they thrive in the red zone, but I think the Jets’ downfield passing woes will cause some drives to stall around the 20-yard line once the field begins shrinking. Bend-but-don’t-break defenses will force New York into plenty of 30–40-yard field goals. However, staying middle-of-the-pack in turnovers would be a significant boon in helping to pull their overall efficiency above expectations.
There is a firm cap on the Jets’ offensive ceiling due to their weaknesses in the pass game. But their run game is littered with talent, and it raises their floor to a level that is probably more respectable than some of the most pessimistic Jets fans think.
