The New York Jets’ ideal draft pick depends on whether they trade or stay put
Should the New York Jets draft [insert a prospect]?
The most nuanced answer to that question is it depends on where. That applies to all of their picks, but most prominently to their first-rounder.
I’ve been on the record heavily criticizing various prospects. That doesn’t mean I think the prospect is bad — just not worthy of the No. 10 overall pick, less worthy than other prospects, or not the Jets’ best use of resources.
Still, this would be my order of Jets draft picks depending on what they decide to do.
Trade up
- Best prospects: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers
- Other good options: N/A
To me, these are the two clear-cut best receivers in the draft. Harrison Jr. is a better route-runner, while Nabers is more explosive after the catch and perhaps has more long-term upside. I think a team taking either player is getting an instant star.
I’m not discounting the possibility of the Jets trading up. Drafting either of these prospects would give the Jets one of the best (if not the best) receiving trios in the NFL. My biggest questions would be a) their plan for the backup tackle position and b) what assets were required to give up. I’m not willing to give up a 2025 first-rounder, though I might consider the second-rounder.
I don’t think Joe Alt is worth trading up for. Now that the Jets have plugged their tackle spots, they can afford to stay put and take the best tackle available at No. 10.
Stay put
- Best prospects: Joe Alt, J.C. Latham
- Other options: Olu Fashanu
If the Jets stay put at No. 10, I think they should go with the best available tackle. Obviously, if Nabers or Harrison somehow fell to that spot, the Jets should run their names up. If not, though, I would look for the insurance and heir apparent at tackle.
I think Alt and Latham are the top two tackle prospects in the draft. Alt is a somewhat better pass-blocker, while Latham may be a better overall prospect. Latham is more technically sound than Mekhi Becton was coming out of college, alleviating some of the concerns about a bigger prospect.
Fashanu is not as good a prospect here because of his severe splits between run and pass-blocking. He could probably step in as the left tackle from Day 1 in the passing game, but he’s a very raw run-blocker. I think he’s still worth the selection at No. 10 because pass-blocking is king in today’s NFL.
I would not take Rome Odunze, even at No. 10. It’s not that I don’t think Odunze could be worth the No. 10 pick or could succeed in Year 1. I simply think his skill set is redundant to Mike Williams’ and that he might struggle against press coverage until he gains more strength. I don’t think he would fill any of the Jets’ primary needs.
Perhaps Odunze could be a good replacement for Williams, but I’m just not willing to take him at No. 10 for that purpose. Then again, while route-running is the most important skill I look for in college pass-catchers, maybe Odunze’s ridiculous contested catch ability alone will propel him to NFL stardom.
Trade down 2-4 slots
- Best prospects: Latham
- Other prospects: Fashanu, Odunze
If the Jets move back a few slots, I would want to pick up at least a third-round pick. At that point, with the way many draft boards are currently falling, one of Latham or Fashanu should still be on the board. If Odunze somehow falls past 10, I would be more on board with taking him while having additional draft capital to fill other needs.
I’m not listing Taliese Fuaga because I think guard is his position at the NFL level.
Trade down 6+ slots
- Best prospects: J.C. Latham
- Other prospects: Fashanu, Troy Fautanu, Brock Bowers, Brian Thomas Jr.
According to the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the Jets would need to trade back six slots to recoup the No. 64 overall pick. Unfortunately, the team at that spot, the Seattle Seahawks, does not have a second-round pick. Still, if the Jets are going to trade back that far, they must get back a second-rounder.
If the Jets can get back a second-rounder, that opens up their options. I’m still inclined to say to take a tackle because the starting-caliber players at that position will almost exclusively be taken in the first round. Still, I could listen to the argument that the Jets should take Brock Bowers here, as he could fill their slot threat need. I’d also consider Brian Thomas Jr., even though I think he’s more of a 20s prospect.
If the Jets do go down into the 20s, I would consider Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, and Amarius Mims.
Why?
Perhaps this whole exercise seems foolish. After all, if a team gets a good player, it shouldn’t necessarily matter where they were drafted. Still, the NFL Draft is all about opportunity costs. It’s not just about the one player drafted but about who could have been in their place.
If Dan Marino hadn’t been available on the draft board in 1983, Jets fans would likely remember Ken O’Brien a lot more fondly, as he made two Pro Bowls and was one of the longest-tenured Jets starting quarterbacks. The Jets’ trade for Alijah Vera-Tucker has a bit of a sting attached when considering that the Vikings took Christian Darrisaw at No. 23. Jermaine Johnson was a much better pick at No. 26 than he would have been at No. 4 or No. 10 because he was a developmental pick.
If the Jets trade up, they need to do it only for an instant star. I think Harrison and Nabers fit that bill. At No. 10, they want to take someone capable of playing at an above-average level for their position in Year 1. As they move down, though, they can afford to take a player with upside but more questions.
I don’t believe Joe Douglas will follow this philosophy. If he wants Bowers, he’ll take him at No. 10, and if he doesn’t, he won’t take Bowers even if he trades down. Still, I think it’s possible that the Jets move on to Fautanu for his inside-outside versatility if they trade down, while I don’t think they’ll take him at No. 10.
What do you think, Jets fans? Does draft slot matter for prospects, or is it simply about getting the best player available regardless?
