Takk McKinley is currently on the New York Jets’ 90-man roster
With Haason Reddick holding out, the New York Jets’ edge rusher room is receiving heightened scrutiny. On the first day of OTAs, Micheal Clemons took Reddick’s place on the first-team defense. Among the Jets’ non-starters at the position, the only other players with any NFL experience are Will McDonald and Takk McKinley.
While undrafted free agents Braiden McGregor and Eric Watts get more attention, McKinley might have the best shot to make the roster as the Jets’ fifth edge defender. After all, he is a former first-round pick with the Atlanta Falcons and has five full seasons of experience. While entering his age-29 season, he’s still young enough to make an impact.
In his training camp press conference, Robert Saleh mentioned that he’s excited to see what McKinley can do. What can McKinley bring to the table for the Jets?
Background
The Falcons drafted McKinley with the 26th pick in the 2017 NFL draft, trading up from No. 31 to secure him. He was listed at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds upon entering the league, but the Jets’ website currently lists him at 250 pounds, which means he bulked up at some point in the league.
McKinley’s appeal as a prospect came primarily from his 4.59 40-yard dash (93rd percentile). His overall athletic profile was not necessarily elite, as he posted a 6.86/10 Relative Athletic Score. According to Pro Football Focus, though, 40 time is the most important Combine metric for edge defenders, which could explain why McKinley went in the first round.
Many saw McKinley as a pure speed rusher with no other tools, making him a highly developmental pick. The SackSeer tool (then from Football Outsiders) was cautious about him due to his poor three-cone drill (7.48, 16th percentile). An undersized edge rusher without elite agility tends to raise some red flags.
Several draft profiles of McKinley noted that he couldn’t win one-on-one reps cleanly and often racked up sacks on unblocked plays or in clean-up situations. There was also mention of a lack of effort.
Career
Despite a reputation as a bust, McKinley’s raw numbers as an edge rusher with the Falcons were generally decent. He had a 12.0% pressure rate as a rookie in 2017, 12.2% in 2018, and 11.1% in 2019, his three healthy seasons with the team; the average pressure rate among starting edge rushers tends to fluctuate between 11.3% to 12% each season.
McKinley also had 16.5 sacks over those three years, including 6.0 in his rookie year and 7.0 the following season. He appeared in 45 of a possible 48 games during that span.
In 2020, McKinley suffered two consecutive groin injuries, causing him to miss four games. The Falcons then released him in November. He went back and forth from team to team for the rest of the season before being placed on injured reserve.
McKinley signed with the Browns in the 2021 offseason. He appeared in 11 games, starting two and posting an 11.7% pressure rate on 214 pass-rush snaps. McKinley suffered a torn Achilles late in the season and was placed on injured reserve.
In 2022, McKinley spent most of the season on various teams’ practice squads. He did not make an NFL roster in 2023. The Jets signed him to their 90-man roster on June 13.
Roughly average win rates
Not only did McKinley have average pressure rates with Atlanta, but he also had average pass rush win rates. He ranked in the 53rd, 68th, and 52nd percentile in pass rush win rate from 2017-19. In true pass sets*, those percentiles were 56th, 68th, and 52nd.
* True pass sets are pass rush situations that isolate blocker vs. defender with a release time between 2 and 4 seconds, no screen, play-action, or rollout, and more than three pass rushers.
McKinley’s overall win rate percentile declined slightly to 46th in 2021 with Cleveland, and it declined to 41st in true pass sets. Still, he was a roughly average pass rusher, especially for a backup.
Run defense
McKinley had strong PFF run defense grades in college, ranking in the 80th and 86th percentile in 2015-16. Still, given his small stature, Atlanta clearly planned to use him as a pass-rush specialist.
In his four qualified seasons, McKinley has played 27.9%, 31.3%, 40.3%, and 28.8% of his snaps against the run. For reference, Bryce Huff, the Jets’ pass-rush specialist, played 27.9% of his snaps against the run in 2023.
McKinley’s PFF run defense grades in those seasons were 61.9, 57.9, 63.0, and 56.6. The only seasons in which he had at least 150 run defense snaps were 2017-18. In those years, he ranked in the 19th and 40th percentile in run defense grade.
Roster spot?
If McKinley were to make the Jets’ roster, it would be for his contributions as a pass rusher. However, with Jermaine Johnson, Haason Reddick, and Will McDonald all vying for snaps in pass-rushing situations, it doesn’t seem like that’s the Jets’ biggest need at edge.
I think it’s likely that the Jets will carry a fifth edge rusher besides Johnson, Reddick, McDonald, and Clemons. McKinley has the advantage of being a more known quantity than Watts and McGregor. However, his torn Achilles in 2021 may have affected his abilities, which could also make him an unknown in his own right.
Watts has the more prototypical size to be a solid run defender at the NFL level at 6-foot-5 and 277 pounds. McGregor is also bigger at 6-foot-6 and 267 pounds. Both were below-average pass rushers at the college level, meaning their best chance to make the Jets’ roster is for stout run defense.
It might come down to what the Jets are looking for in an edge defender. If they want the best pass rusher they can get, McKinley may get that spot. If they’re more focused on run defense coupled with whatever pass rush they can get, Watts or McGregor will likely make it.
Even if McKinley does make the roster, his ceiling is likely what he already posted in the past. He is still a first-round bust. Since his production in the past was good enough for a backup, though, I think he has a real chance to make some impact for the 2024 Jets.
