The New York Jets’ running back competition has shifted
Despite being a fifth-round pick just one year ago, Israel Abanikanda has not generated much buzz in the early goings of training camp. The New York Jets’ second-year running back has been largely overshadowed by Tarik Cohen, the 29-year-old veteran who was seeking to make an inspiring NFL comeback after missing three consecutive seasons.
However, after Cohen’s shocking retirement on Thursday morning, the Jets’ running back competition suddenly looks much different. With Cohen absent, Abanikanda now has a clearer path to impressing his coaches and earning a roster spot.
Can the Brooklyn native pull it off?
If he is going to do it, the harsh reality is that Abanikanda must show substantial progress in nearly every facet of the running back position. Abanikanda struggled in many areas during his 2023 rookie season.
While Abanikanda only played 77 offensive snaps across six regular season appearances, that was enough for him to display some major weaknesses in his game. Most notably, Abanikanda simply didn’t inspire much excitement in his potential as a rusher. On 22 carries, Abanikanda gained just 77 yards, an average of 3.2 yards per carry. That was identical to the much-maligned Dalvin Cook.
Yes, Abanikanda was running behind a poor Jets offensive line, but his individual metrics suggested he struggled to create yardage on his own. Abanikanda averaged 2.05 yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus, ranking 92nd out of the 96 running backs with at least 20 carries. Even Cook was better, placing 85th at 2.21.
Abanikanda also struggled to make defenders miss, forcing just two missed tackles on 22 carries. His average of 0.091 missed tackles forced per carry ranked 90th among 96 qualifiers. Again, for comparison’s sake, this was significantly worse than even the clearly washed-up Cook, who nearly doubled Abanikanda with a mark of 0.179 (50th).
On top of his stagnant rushing, Abanikanda looked raw in the passing game. Abanikanda had two drops against just seven receptions, giving him a 22.2% drop rate. Additionally, he failed to force any missed tackles across his seven receptions.
Ball security is another concern. Abanikanda fumbled once in his limited regular season action after already fumbling once during his short preseason stint. Overall, he had two fumbles on just 59 touches across the regular season and preseason, which is once every 29.5 touches. The 2023 league average for running backs was once every 119.8 touches.
Some of these issues were already red flags on Abanikanda’s draft profile. In his 2022 season at Pitt, Abanikanda averaged 2.71 yards after contact, ranking 129th among the 168 Power-5 running backs with at least 100 carries. He also had four fumbles (one every 63.3 touches) and a 14.3% drop rate.
Still only 21 years old (he will be 22 in October), Abanikanda is an extremely young prospect. He could have more room for development in his second season than most other running backs at this stage of their careers. It would be unfair to completely write him off based on a very small sample of rookie-year reps at 21 years old.
However, NFL running backs are expected to contribute immediately. The position has a much shorter growth curve than any other. If you don’t have it as a rookie, you probably don’t have it – period. It’s becoming rare to see running backs who undergo the standard developmental arc that is common at other positions. Perhaps it is no surprise the Jets did not hesitate to draft two running backs only one year after selecting Abanikanda.
The pressure has already reached a maximum level for Abanikanda. As a rookie, he simply did not perform at a rosterable level for an NFL running back. Recent history tells us that running backs typically are who they are and won’t show much development. The Jets seem to agree if their draft decisions and ensuing preference for Cohen are any indication.
Abanikanda needs to prove he is an outlier, and he needs to do it now, or the clock might be ticking on his time with the Jets.
