Doubting the New York Jets is essentially a default national setting. The latest Haason Reddick debacle exemplifies why (even though the optics may be worse than the actual situation).
Even as the Jets carry Super Bowl aspirations, many pundits don’t even have them making the playoffs. The FTN Almanac, considered the gold standard of analytics, projects them at 8.8 victories and a third-place finish in the division.
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However, Mike Tanier of FTN Fantasy and the Too Deep Zone Substack thinks that projection might be a little pessimistic.
On the Score Boord Podcast, Tanier explained that the FTN Almanac’s projection is based on simulations and is therefore very conservative in predicting win totals. The best teams in the NFL often have a projection of 10 wins. Additionally, he talked about how the model may be too bullish on one particular AFC East team, automatically depressing the Jets’ win total.
Ultimately, the Jets are a wild card for any projection system because of Aaron Rodgers. His age, injury, and mediocre 2022 season are significant concerns for any statistical prediction. Thinking “this one is different” is a logical fallacy, Tom Brady notwithstanding. Therefore, any analyst looking at the numbers will generally take a conservative view of the Jets as a whole.
Other topics Mike and I addressed:
- What to expect from Rodgers
- Breece Hall’s ceiling this season
- Whether the Jets’ defense lowers the bar for the offense
- The AFC East and the AFC landscape as a whole
- The Haason Reddick situation (although this episode was recorded pre-trade request)
- A random rabbit hole about Hall of Fame quarterbacks through an analytical lens
You can listen to the full episode wherever you get your podcasts.
