Braelon Allen‘s second preseason outing as a New York Jet did not match the pizazz of his first. After running for 54 yards on 6 carries in his debut (9.0 YPC), the rookie running back only recorded 27 yards on 8 carries in his encore (3.4 YPC).
Despite the difference in production between his first game and his second, Allen displayed an important trait in both performances: consistency.
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While Allen only averaged 3.4 YPC across his 8 carries in Carolina, he still managed to run for at least 3 yards on 7-of-8 carries. His longest run went for only 4 yards (which he reached on four plays), but it was impressive how reliable he was at picking up positive chunks of yardage. This was a continuation of his Week 1 reliability, when he ran for at least 3 yards on 4-of-6 carries.
Through two games, Allen has gained at least 3 yards on 11 of his 14 carries, a whopping 78.6% rate. For perspective, the 2023 league-average rate for running backs was 57.1%. The Jets’ running backs were at 51.8%.
It is only a small sample of preseason reps, but it is promising to see Allen making good use of his massive frame and powerful running style. When the Jets rest Breece Hall for a play or two, they don’t necessarily need a backup who can come in and hit home runs; Hall will do plenty of that over his large diet of touches as the bell-cow. What they need is someone who can keep the offense on schedule until Hall comes back in. Allen is proving that he can be a fantastic fit for that role.
In the regular season, if Allen can gain 3+ yards on at least 60% of his rush attempts (his 78.6% rate is unsustainable), the Jets will enjoy the luxury of knowing their offense will not fall apart when Hall is off the field. The Jets can rest Hall for two plays to start a drive, and Allen would ensure that the worst-case scenario would be a third-and-short. He will not dance around the backfield and risk losing yards to put the Jets in third-and-long. With Allen, it’s all downhill, all the time.
Take note of Allen’s running mentality on these plays. Once he realizes that he probably does not have a lane for something big, he cuts vertically up the field, puts his head down, and rumbles forward for as many yards as he can get. When you’re 235 pounds with Allen’s raw strength (the man hit 26 reps on the 225-pound bench press), this mentality will get you 3-4 yards practically on-demand.
This type of running style wouldn’t be ideal for a bell-cow back. They need to be able to hit home runs; 3.4 YPC with a long of 4 won’t cut it over a large volume. But for a complementary back who will get a small volume of touches behind one of the league’s top workhorses, this style is perfect. It is exactly what you want as the bridge between two Hall stretches.
In his limited role, Allen will always come on the field fresh, allowing him to bring maximum thump to defenders. Opposing defenses will either have to tackle Breece Hall or a fresh Braelon Allen – not very fun. And don’t forget about Isaiah Davis, too. There will not be any opportunities to take plays off against this Jets run game.
Allen is poised to register successful runs at a high rate in 2024, even if he doesn’t hit dingers that often. He and Isaiah Davis will keep the Jets offense on schedule while Hall is on the bench.
This dynamic is similar to what the Packers had with the electric Aaron Jones and the 247-pound AJ Dillon over Aaron Rodgers’ final two seasons in Green Bay. Jones was the lightning (Hall) while Dillon was the thunder (Allen).
In 2021, Rodgers’ most recent MVP and playoff season, Jones was a fantastic big-play machine for Green Bay. Among the 50 running backs with at least 100 carries, Jones ranked eighth in yards per carry (4.7) and 13th in breakaway rate* (26.7%). Dillon, meanwhile, was 20th in yards per carry (4.3) and 44th in breakaway rate (11.6%).
*- Percentage of rushing yards coming on carries for 15+ yards.
However, Dillon brought tremendous consistency to the Packers offense. Dillon had a rushing success rate (percentage of carries yielding positive EPA) of 50.8%, ranked second. Jones was 23rd at 42.7%. Dillon also gained at least 3 yards on 64.7% of his carries; this is a realistic number for Allen to shoot for in the regular season.
Green Bay split the carries almost evenly between Jones (11.4/G) and Dillon (11.0/G) in 2021. That will not be the case with the Jets, as Hall figures to dominate the workload.
Still, it is worth noting that we’ve already seen an Aaron Rodgers-led offense succeed with this type of thunder-and-lightning dynamic in the backfield. In New York, with Hall arguably being more talented than Jones and Allen/Davis enjoying the benefit of getting more rest than Dillon, the backfield could be even better than the Jones-Dillon pairing that won 13 games in 2021.
Braelon Allen’s size, power, finishing ability, and downhill mentality should make him a fantastic complement to Breece Hall in the Jets offense.
