Throughout training camp, there was endless media spotlight on whether Aaron Rodgers would start in the preseason for the New York Jets. Besides the imaginary power struggle between Rodgers and Robert Saleh, the widespread narrative was that Rodgers needed to play to shake off the rust before starting in Week 1 in San Francisco.
A statistic shared by ESPN’s Rich Cimini appears to back that up. Over the past three seasons, quarterbacks who did not play in the preseason and then started in Week 1 had a 12-17 record.
Ten projected starting QBs, including Aaron Rodgers, didn’t play in the preseason. In the previous 3 seasons, there were 29 QBs who started Week 1 after not playing in the PS. Combined record: 12-17, per @ESPNStatsInfo #Jets pic.twitter.com/tGdh0cYudJ
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) August 26, 2024
Ostensibly, this is worrisome for Rodgers. After all, none of those quarterbacks were 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. If they were rusty, that does not bode well for a quarterback about whom both are true.
Still, the numbers among those 29 quarterbacks are interesting.
- 12/29 posted a passer rating of at least 98.0; 12/29 had a passer rating below 80.0.
- 11/29 averaged at least 7.7 yards per attempt; 12/29 averaged fewer than 6.5 yards per attempt.
- 12/29 threw at least two touchdown passes, while 5/29 threw at least two interceptions.
- The average line for starting quarterbacks (since the mean and median were similar) was a 64% completion percentage, 245 yards, 7.0 yards per attempt, 1.31 TD, 0.83 INT, and an 87.6 passer rating.
Overall, the lack of pattern once against suggests that judging quarterbacks by wins and losses is faulty. Rather, there’s a more important number that could give Jets fans pause.
From 2019-22, Rodgers did not play in the preseason. Here were his Week 1 statistics in those four seasons.
- 2019: 18-for-30 (60%), 203 yards, 6.8 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, won 10-3
- 2020: 32-for-44 (72.7%), 364 yards, 8.3 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT, won 43-34
- 2021: 15-for-28 (53.6%), 133 yards, 4.8 YPA, 0 TD, 2 INT, lost 38-3
- 2022: 22-for-34 (64.7%), 195 yards, 5.7 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT, lost 23-7
In 2019, his Week 1 play was okay. In 2020, it was elite. However, it then fell off a cliff in 2021-22, as Rodgers struggled to move downfield and threw interceptions.
While it’s a small sample size, it’s somewhat concerning that Rodgers started slowly in his age-38 and age-39 seasons. At least, it’s more concerning than the fact that Week 1 starters who sat in the preseason from 2021-23 went 12-17. Then again, Rodgers did play in the preseason in 2023 — and it even went pretty well! — yet we know how that turned out.
The interesting part is that, like Rodgers, other quarterbacks posted mixed results in this situation across multiple seasons.
For example, Dak Prescott has not played in any of the past three preseasons; his Week 1 passer ratings were 101.4, 47.2, and 72.0. Matthew Stafford’s have been 156.1, 63.1, and 91.3 in the same situation. Ryan Tannehill was at 74.9, 106.2, and 28.8.
The only other quarterback to miss all three preseasons was Justin Herbert, but he was far more consistent in the regular season, posting Week 1 passer ratings of 85.2, 129.4, and 99.2.
Yes, there are some great quarterbacks on the list who put up truly terrible Week 1 performances. Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Prescott, and Stafford all put up one or more stinkers. But then you have passers like the ghost of Matt Ryan and Tannehill on this list. Did rust have anything to do with their performances?
Overall, this seems to be subject to random variance. Perhaps, if the study went back to the first year when teams did not play their starting quarterbacks at all in the preseason and it encompassed many more games, some conclusion could be drawn.
There is certainly a chance that Rodgers will come out rusty. He’s playing in a game for the first time in a year, coming off a major leg injury, with what are essentially still new receivers and a new offensive line. That he’s going up against an excellent pass defense doesn’t help matters.
Still, it doesn’t seem that there’s a particular reason to be concerned because of the records of the previous 29 Week 1 quarterbacks to sit out the preseason.
