The New York Jets’ offense can seemingly be summed up with only one name: Aaron Rodgers. In a league dominated by passing, elite quarterbacks are expected to be the offense’s focal point. Naturally, that makes Rodgers the most important player on the Jets.
While Rodgers is certainly critical to the Jets’ success, the true setup of the offense is more complex than it appears to outsiders. People hear Aaron Rodgers’ name and assume it will be a pass-heavy offense. In fact, some fantasy football analysts see Breece Hall as a risky first-round pick, assuming Rodgers will take away some of his rushing volume.
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However, that completely ignores how the Jets set up their team. They brought in John Simpson and Morgan Moses, two mauling offensive linemen known principally for their gap-blocking, from a team that ran the ball more than any other. Those players joined Joe Tippmann and Alijah Vera-Tucker, already two strong run-blockers. Tyron Smith, although brought in for pass protection, is also an excellent gap-blocker.
If that didn’t send the signal loudly enough, Joe Douglas then selected running backs in back-to-back rounds. And not just any running backs: Braelon Allen, a 235-pound bruiser, and Isaiah Davis, no slouch himself at 220 pounds. They joined Hall, also 220 pounds. That’s three large, imposing beasts in the backfield (one of whom already has the moniker).
Face it, folks: the Jets’ goal this season is to run the football. Everyone knows that about Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles even with Justin Herbert in tow, but it’s somehow flowing under the radar in New York with Rodgers.
In more recent years, the Packers ran the ball an average amount with Rodgers under center. Their rankings in run play percentage ranged from 11th to 17th from 2019-22 under Matt LaFleur. Part of that may have been because the Packers were playing from ahead (they won 13 games in each season from 2019-21). Still, that doesn’t explain why they ranked 15th in run play rate in 2022 when they went 8-9.
Yes, Rodgers will check from run plays into pass plays. He will throw smoke screens on the backside of an RPO. Every great quarterback makes such checks depending on the defensive look. Still, the Packers’ run play rate in 2022 proves he doesn’t do so to an extreme degree.
In three years under Robert Saleh, the Jets have never ranked higher than 29th in the league in run play rate. That directly correlates with their 18-33 record during that span. They’ve lost by at least 15 points in 17 games. Teams that constantly trail must pass at a high rate.
When a team has a quarterback like Rodgers, they shouldn’t be trailing as often. And not just because that quarterback passes a lot. The need for the defense to respect the pass lightens the box, making it easier to run the ball. That is exactly the Jets’ intention. In fact, that’s what they hoped to do last year, too, before Rodgers went down.
That’s not to say the Jets want to be overly conservative. Even if Nathaniel Hackett wants to follow in the footsteps of his father, Paul, it’s Rodgers’ offense. Saleh was endlessly hounded for his play-it-safe mindset from 2023, and that won’t recur with Rodgers back under center.
The average run play percentage among NFL teams in 2023 was 42.8%. Most teams still run roughly three pass plays for every two run plays. Not a single team in the NFL ran the ball more than they passed last season; Baltimore came the closest at 49.9% run.
Still, the Jets’ offense will be far more tilted toward the run than outsiders believe, and the Jets hope to rank in the top half of the league in run play rate. At this stage of his career, Rodgers does not play like Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow.
So if you have Hall in fantasy, don’t worry about his losing touches to Rodgers’ pass-happy mindset. Hall ranked 14th among running backs in rush attempts (223) in 2023 despite seeing just 32 carries in the first four games of the season. That was with the Jets’ 29th-ranked 22.8 rush attempts per game. Assuming he stays healthy, his carries will only go up from there. (He may not repeat his 90 targets and 76 receptions from 2023, but that’s a deeper fantasy discussion for a different day.)
The Jets know Rodgers is their most precious asset. They hope to keep him upright in part by easing his workload while allowing his presence to ease the way for the running backs. Expect to see a grinder in San Francisco rather than a passing slugfest.
