Expectations are high for the New York Jets in a win-now year. Count ESPN’s simulator as a believer in the team’s chances of having a historic season.
ESPN’s lead analytics writer, Seth Walder, used ESPN’s Football Power Index, or FPI for short, to run one single simulation of the 2024 NFL season. Walder then broke down all of the main details and storylines of that single simulation.
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Walder’s simulation had the Jets finish the season 12-5, good enough to win the AFC East and earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind only the 13-4 Chiefs. The Dolphins were the only other team in the division to finish over .500 at 9-8. The Bills were one of the major disappointments, finishing 7-10 thanks to a very lackluster offense.
The simulation had New York finishing with the NFL’s best defense. Sauce Gardner led the way, winning Defensive Player of the Year. Offensively, the Jets were led by a strong season from Aaron Rodgers, who finished top-eight in ESPN’s QBR metric. While it’s not quite up to his previous MVP standards, it still makes him one of the league’s top quarterbacks.
The Jets would face the Dolphins at MetLife Stadium in the Wild Card round, coming out victorious by a score of 23-14. It would be a doubly sweet victory, extending the Dolphins’ active streak for the most consecutive seasons without a playoff win in North American professional sports. Meanwhile, the Jets would win their first home playoff game since 2002.
The Jets followed up that emotional win by hosting the Bengals in the Divisional Round. Once again, Rodgers and Co. came out victorious, beating Joe Cool and the gang 27-9.
Unfortunately, the Jets’ dream season came to an end in the AFC Championship game. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were just too much at Arrowhead for the Jets defense, as they lose 31-23.
Although the season did not end in a title, you’d be hard-pressed to find a Jets fan who wouldn’t love this outcome. Two home playoff wins, an AFC title appearance, and a Defensive Player of the Year? That’d arguably be the second-best season in the history of the franchise.
