The New York Jets–Haason Reddick discourse doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. Jets reporters and national reporters hold diverse opinions about how the saga will end. But if Reddick isn’t in the building by the time the Jets start practicing for San Francisco, it is unlikely he will play in Week 1.
While the Jets have bandied about the idea that Reddick is a luxury rather than a necessity, that notion comes through green-colored glasses (and perhaps a dose of Reddick-directed posturing). The Jets lost 117 pressures and 13.5 sacks when Bryce Huff left in free agency and they traded John Franklin-Myers. Reddick was meant to replace more than half of those pressures and most or perhaps all of the sacks.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
That being said, the Jets’ track record on the defensive line from the last two seasons could render Reddick less than an absolute necessity, if not a luxury. Look at the team’s starting edge rushers over the past two seasons and their previous track records, especially considering the team’s rotation-heavy approach.
2022
In 2022, the Jets started Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers on the edge. Lawson was returning from a torn Achilles and had played a combined 35 games in the three seasons before that injury, including an ACL tear in 2018. While he was a premier pressure producer whenever he was on the field, sporting a 14.3% career pressure rate, it was risky to put all their eggs in his basket as a starting edge rusher.
On the other side, Franklin-Myers was an excellent run defender but only a slightly above-average pass rusher. His 12.2% pressure rate in 2021 was slightly above average (the NFL average for edge rushers is 11.6%) but nothing more.
In their last healthy seasons, respectively, Lawson and Franklin-Myers had combined for 11.5 sacks. Going into the season with that pairing was risky, particularly given the Jets’ strong preference to rush four.
Beyond the top pairing, the Jets had signed Jacob Martin as their pass rush specialist and drafted Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons. While Johnson was a first-round pick, the Jets did not intend to give him a big role. Clemons had a 14% pressure rate in his final college season, but his stiffness on film made it clear he would not be much of a pass rusher at the NFL level.
Bryce Huff was an afterthought in the room. Many had projected the Jets would release him, and he did not dress for the first three games. Vinny Curry began the season on injured reserve.
There was immense uncertainty in the Jets’ edge room. In fact, through the first three weeks of the season, Lawson and Franklin-Myers combined for a 10.2% pressure rate. The only one who stood out at all was Martin (seven pressures on 45 snaps, 15.6%), but on film, his pressures didn’t stand out that much.
Truthfully, the Jets’ edge rush was not that good the whole season. Lawson finished with an 11.3% pressure rate and seven sacks. While Franklin-Myers had a 13.4% pressure rate, much of that was garnered on his 29% snap share on the interior. Huff had an incredible 20.8% pressure rate but on just 16% of the snaps. Johnson and Clemons didn’t do much as pass rushers, giving the Jets only one truly above-average pass rusher on the edge.
And yet, the Jets defense ranked sixth-best in overall defensive DVOA, and their pass-rush recorded the third-best pressure rate. Yes, a big part of that was Quinnen Williams’ breakout season. But the most salient point is the Jets’ lack of an elite pass rusher on the edge besides the little-used Huff.
2023
Things were different in 2023 — but think about how they looked at the start of the season. Lawson and Franklin-Myers were poised to reprise their starting roles. The Jets hoped to get more from Lawson in his second season post-injury, but there was no guarantee. Johnson’s role was up in the air. Clemons demonstrated that he was exclusively a run defender.
Even with Huff’s phenomenal season, it was unclear whether he could maintain his success in a larger role. (Jets fans may deny this and say they “knew it all along,” but they ignored the dangers of a small sample size. That it worked out that way does not mean it was inevitable from the outset.) Will McDonald was a rookie unknown.
Then Lawson hurt his back, and Johnson slid into the starting lineup. That added even more uncertainty and risk to the Jets’ edge room. Johnson had a 9.3% pressure rate as a rookie, albeit in a tiny sample size (151 pass rush snaps, even fewer than Huff’s 173). More concerning, though, was the film showing he could not stack pass-rush moves or play with proper leverage.
Could Johnson be at least an average pass rusher as Lawson was the year before? Even though he looked better in the preseason, it was very much in doubt.
Franklin-Myers was excellent in the first four games, posting 18 pressures on 95 pass-rush snaps (18.9% pressure rate). He and Huff (22.1%) offset Johnson’s mere five pressures on 107 pass rush snaps (4.7%). Clemons, McDonald, and Lawson were mostly non-factors.
Of course, things turned around for Johnson from there. He posted 51 pressures on 338 snaps from Week 5 through the end of the season (15.1%), ranking in the 75th percentile among edge rushers. Franklin-Myers cooled down with 32 pressures on 264 snaps (12.1%) despite continuing to play one-third of his snaps on the interior.
Huff picked up the slack, although he hit a bit of a snag in the second half of the season (from Weeks 10-17, he had just a 9.8% pressure rate). Still, on the year, he had 67 pressures on 334 pass rush snaps (20%), ranked second among all edge rushers.
Is Reddick a necessity?
The overarching point is that the Jets came into each of the last two seasons with many unknowns surrounding their pass rush. It is easy to look at those teams now and think the pass rush was figured out from Day 1. But they had question marks, some slow starts, and even a mediocre overall edge rush in 2022.
Yes, Huff was a big part of it, even in 2022 — but, again, he played only 16% of the snaps. He basically played only third-and-long. Average pass rushers took the bulk of the snaps.
Given how good the Jets’ pass rush was last year, the losses of Huff and Franklin-Myers may seem catastrophic if Reddick is not there to offset them.
However, they still have Johnson, who posted above-average pass rush numbers for most of 2023. Comparing that to their 2022 pass rush, they need some hodgepodge of Takk McKinley, Will McDonald, Micheal Clemons, and Braiden McGregor (or perhaps even Eric Watts) to muster Carl Lawson numbers.
Is that such a difficult ask, especially considering McKinley has been an average pass rusher throughout his career?
Furthermore, never underestimate the Jets’ coaching staff’s ability to overachieve. As good as Huff is, an undrafted free agent does not receive all the credit for becoming one of the league’s scariest pass rushers. The Jets’ staff utilized him properly, and he also refined his technique. Johnson’s rapid improvement also speaks well of Robert Saleh, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, and defensive line coach Aaron Whitecotton.
Can this coaching staff not pull a rabbit out of a hat once more? McDonald is a talented player, and McKinley looks as explosive as ever. Clemons will never be much of a pass rusher, but even McGregor showed some chops.
That is not to say the Jets won’t miss Reddick. They will. He is not a luxury.
But can the Jets’ coaching staff make him less of a necessity? Can the Jets survive without their vaunted edge rush from last season?
Looking back at their last two seasons, the answer can only be yes.
