When Aaron Rodgers takes the field for the New York Jets on Monday night, he will be the second aging passer to return from an Achilles tear for a Week 1 start.
Suffice it to say that it didn’t go well for the other one.
Check out Jets X-Factor's Aaron Rodgers page for in-depth coverage of the Jets' quarterback.
The 36-year-old Kirk Cousins made his Falcons debut against the Steelers. The Falcons were 3.5-point home favorites. Instead, Cousins and his team laid an egg against Pittsburgh, losing 18-10. Cousins went 16-for-26 for 155 yards (6.0 yards per attempt) with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. He posted three turnover-worthy plays and a 59.0 passer rating.
Does this bode poorly for Rodgers in his return? Will the difficulties Cousins encountered hit the 40-year-old, as well?
While it is impossible to know for certain, two crucial factors could determine the difference.
For one, this is Rodgers’ second season with the Jets. He’s been through two offseasons with the team with an offensive coordinator whom he’s worked with for years. It may be a new season but it is not a new system. Rodgers likely needs less time to build chemistry with his receivers.
More importantly, though, Rodgers’ performance in this game may hinge on his offensive line. The Steelers harassed Cousins all day, pressuring him on 39.3% of his dropbacks and sacking him twice. As a result, Cousins had to get the ball out quickly; his 2.42 average time to throw was his quickest since Week 6 of the 2021 season.
Cousins threw 63.6% of his balls either behind the line of scrimmage or in the short area of the field (0-9 yards). He struggled mightily in the intermediate area (10-19 yards), going 4-for-8 with a touchdown and both interceptions and averaging just 7.9 yards per attempt (the league average in that area of the field in 2023 was 9.6). He did not attempt a single deep pass.
Rodgers has struggled under pressure for quite a few seasons now. Over his last three healthy seasons, here are the differences between his passer rating under pressure and when kept clean.
- 2022 – 62.6 under pressure (20th of 33) vs. 98.9 when kept clean (19th)
- 2021 – 67.9 under pressure (20th of 33) vs. 123.7 when kept clean (1st)
- 2020 – 89.3 under pressure (3rd of 34) vs. 129.7 when kept clean (1st)
Protecting Rodgers is more important than ever given his age and injury. Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave are formidable pass rushers, and Leonard Floyd has 39.5 sacks over the past four seasons (as well as injuring Rodgers last year).
If the Jets can keep Rodgers clean, he has a strong chance to dissect the 49ers’ defense and find the soft spots. If he’s running for his life as Cousins did, expect similar results (although perhaps not the interceptions).
This may seem obvious, but it could get lost in the narrative of quarterbacks returning from injury. If Rodgers is constantly harassed, his likely struggles will have little to do with his injury or even his age (as compared to several seasons ago). Perhaps even more than Rodgers himself, the Jets’ offensive line — especially their pass protection — may ultimately determine how far the team can go this season.
