After three games, fantasy football trends are almost as difficult to parse out as before the season. Who’s for real? What’s noise? How will injuries impact the landscape?
Still, that won’t prevent anyone from analyzing the first three weeks and giving advice. Here are players who seem to be worth buying, selling, or holding.
Buy
QB Sam Darnold
I know, I know. We’ve seen Sam Darnold look good in small doses before. If he turns into Geno Smith 2.0 (and he appears to be on that track), it will contribute that much more to the “Same Old Jets” narrative. Still, it is hard not to buy Darnold at this point. He leads all quarterbacks with eight touchdown passes, has thrown just two interceptions, averages 8.4 yards per attempt, and has a 117.3 passer rating.
Darnold is currently the QB4 in fantasy. While he ranks 13th in passing yards and may be touchdown-dependent, he appears to have set a solid fantasy floor as at least a top-12 fantasy QB. In 2-QB leagues, Darnold should be 100% rostered. Even in one-QB leagues, Darnold could be a valuable backup with week-to-week starter consideration.
RB Alvin Kamara
Kamara was a solid PPR option last year despite averaging 3.9 yards per carry. His 75 receptions allowed him to finish as the RB11. So far this season, though, he’s back to an excellent showing on the ground, making him the No. 2 overall player in PPR leagues. While his five touchdowns are a big reason for that, he is also averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has 10 receptions for 132 yards. Even without scoring a touchdown in Week 3, Kamara still posted a solid 15.70 points.
Even at age 29, Kamara looks like he’s the real deal in fantasy.
RBs Jahmyr Gibbs + David Montgomery
Each of these running backs was a somewhat risky pick because of the other’s presence. So far, there’s been enough to go around for both of them. Gibbs is the PPR RB13, while Montgomery is the RB9. Through three weeks, Montgomery has been far more valuable given his ADP and has 11 more carries than Gibbs. Still, both players are solid starts every week.
WR Khalil Shakir
Dalton Kincaid was a popular tight end pick in drafts, but all the Bills receivers were unknowns. Kincaid has 10 targets through three games, while Khalil Shakir has paced all Bills pass-catchers with 14 targets.
Shakir is not setting the world on fire, and his value is heavily predicated on two touchdown receptions. Though his 58% snap share is not ideal for a fantasy starter, he can certainly be a flex option in PPR leagues. He has 2.75 yards per route run and has played over 80% of his snaps in the slot. As the only wide receiver on the Bills with any previous experience with Josh Allen, Shakir is the WR1 in an offense that’s firing on all cylinders.
If Shakir is available on waivers, pick him up.
WR Chris Godwin
Mike Evans has been the clear WR1 in this offense for years, and Godwin finished as a disappointing WR29 in PPR despite producing over 1,000 receiving yards last season. However, a move to the slot seems to have rejuvenated Godwin. He is the WR3 in PPR leagues and the No. 8 overall player. While he has scored a touchdown in all three games, he also has 25 targets, 21 receptions, and 253 yards, all great marks for PPR.
Godwin is unlikely to out-target Evans nearly 2 to 1 (25-14) as the season continues, but he has established himself as a weekly start.
WR Malik Nabers
In Week 1, the uncertainty about Malik Nabers in fantasy showed up. The Giants’ offense sputtered, and while Nabers saw a decent seven targets, it looked like Daniel Jones might not be able to hit him consistently.
However, Nabers has now posted back-to-back monster performances, showing why fantasy managers were excited about him. He has an astonishing 30 targets over the past two games, and that likely is not a fluke. The Giants are determined to feed him the ball, as he is by far and away their best playmaker. Even if his touchdowns regress (he has three), his pace of nine receptions per game over the last two weeks could well continue.
Nabers is currently the WR1 in PPR leagues. He is a weekly must-start.
WR Rashee Rice
With all the uncertainty surrounding Rice’s suspension status, his draft position dropped somewhat. Having Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the roster also made some suspect Patrick Mahomes would spread the ball around.
That narrative has been blown out of the water. Brown is out for the season, and Worthy looks like the expected boom-or-bust gadget player. Even Travis Kelce has been exceptionally quiet. With Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve, that makes Rice essentially the only target in the offense.
Rice has 29 targets through three games, and don’t expect that pace to diminish anytime soon. He is currently the PPR WR2 and has posted at least 17.3 PPR points in all three games, even excluding his two touchdown receptions.
Get Rice into your starting lineups.
WR Nico Collins
Before the season, it was difficult to figure out how C.J. Stroud would distribute targets. Through three weeks, though, it’s clear this passing game runs through Nico Collins. Collins has 28 targets and is the PPR WR6 with only one touchdown catch.
Stefon Diggs is also seeing a fair amount of work as the No. 2 option in the offense, and he has 23 targets of his own. However, he also averages just 8.2 yards per reception and 7.1 yards per target. He may be a boom-or-bust prospect from week to week, relying either on a bunch of funneled targets in the short area of the field or touchdown receptions.
You want Collins in your weekly starting lineup, though.
TE Brock Bowers
The tight end landscape has been bleak through three weeks. Somehow, Cole Kmet is the PPR TE3 despite posting just 8.10 points through the first two weeks. That’s what makes early fantasy trends so difficult to predict.
However, looking at the way the Raiders are using Brock Bowers, he seems to be a good weekly fantasy start. He has lined up in the backfield, as an in-line tight end and H-back, in the slot (62.4%), and out wide. He has 20 targets through three games and is the PPR TE2 with no touchdown catches.
Sell
QB Geno Smith
Even with the Seahawks sitting at 3-0, it’s hard to jump on the Geno Smith bandwagon. He is the QB12 in fantasy and has a disappointing 3:3 TD:INT ratio. He finished as the QB5 in his breakout 2022 campaign but regressed to the QB19 last season. While Smith can be started in two-QB leagues, it’s better to sell relatively high on him in one-QB formats.
QB Derek Carr
Carr came back down to earth with a thud against the Eagles. He is still the fantasy QB9 but looked more like the inconsistent quarterback we’ve seen the last two seasons. Carr has not done well historically when under pressure, and with center Erik McCoy out long-term, that could become a major issue.
Carr may not be easy to sell after his Week 3 performance, but if you can find anyone buying the Saints, it’s a good time to let him go.
RB D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift’s ADP far outpaced realistic expectations for him this season. After Swift finished as the PPR RB20 last season, he moved from the Eagles’ excellent offensive line to the Bears’ suspect one. Swift was never one to add many yards after contact, as he averaged just 2.42 last season, ranking 38th out of 41 qualifiers. That makes his blocking critical for his success.
Behind a Bears offensive line ranked 24th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking, Swift is the PPR RB41 and somehow averages 1.8 yards per carry. Roschon Johnson saw eight carries in Week 3 (compared to Swift’s 13) and managed 3.8 yards per carry. If Swift continues to stumble, Johnson could turn this backfield into a timeshare.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Despite a hot start, Rhamondre Stevenson is stuck in an offense with no playmakers and a leaky offensive line. With injuries decimating an already porous unit, don’t expect Stevenson to be able to keep up his pace from the first two weeks. More performances like his -0.70 output against the Jets could be in his future. He also has three fumbles through three games, further depressing his floor.
RB Jaylen Warren
Whether Warren is unhealthy or just flat-out struggling in Arthur Smith’s zone scheme, he has just 14 carries and averages 3.9 yards per carry. His yards after contact per attempt are down from 3.64 to 2.71. Even with five catches for 28 yards, Warren is not a startable player.
WR Calvin Ridley
Ridley had a breakout performance against the Jets, but what we’ve seen from him through three weeks will likely be his season-long trend: some below-average but decent performances sandwiched in between the sparing great game and a handful of stinkers. He’s simply not reliable with Will Levis’ turnover tendencies. As DeAndre Hopkins gets healthier, his target share could be low.
WR Rashid Shaheed
It was easy to get fooled by Shaheed after two weeks, but his Week 3 zero showed the risks he poses. He’s a boom-or-bust deep threat. With Chris Olave’s role in the offense increasing, Shaheed is at best a dart-throw flex option.
WR Xavier Worthy
Worthy falls into a similar category as Shaheed without the proven deep-threat ability. The Chiefs like to feed him some screens and jet sweeps, but they’re mostly using him as a clear-out for Rashee Rice underneath.
Jaguars pass-catchers
The Jaguars look like a mess in the early going. Their pass-catchers were not necessarily the best bets to begin with. Fade everyone.
WR Amari Cooper
As long as Deshaun Watson can’t rediscover himself, no one on the Browns is a good bet. Cooper put together a two-touchdown effort against the Giants, but even that performance was heavily score-dependent. Watson still averages 4.8 yards per attempt. As good as Cooper is, he’s simply unreliable. It might be worth selling high.
WRs Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
D.K. Metcalf is the explosive deep-threat No. 1 receiver. After that, it’s impossible to differentiate between Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba has 21 targets to Lockett’s 17, but the former has a 9.0 average depth of target, meaning he’ll need heavy volume to be productive. Lockett’s ADOT is not too much deeper at 8.9, though, and he does not have nearly the YAC ability that Smith-Njigba does.
Both of these players should ride the bench for now.
WR Tank Dell and TE Dalton Schultz
With Nico Collins the clear No. 1 receiver and Stefon Diggs taking the No. 2 targets, Dell and Schultz are the distant third and fourth options in the offense. Dell’s 18 targets aren’t terrible, but he has just nine catches for 99 yards. Schultz doesn’t need to be rostered, and Dell can ride the bench.
Anthony Richardson + Colts pass-catchers
Anthony Richardson’s inaccuracy means no Colts targets are safe. His 49.3% completion percentage is not only the worst in the NFL but also 9% lower than the worst completion percentage among qualified passers in 2023 (Will Levis). While it is very early, considering that Richardson had just a 53.8% completion percentage in college, the trend is quite worrisome.
Richardson was a sleeper pick for the QB1 in fantasy, but he just can’t connect with any open receivers. Let Richardson ride the bench and fade all Colts receivers until further notice. Even Alec Pierce’s deep production is too boom-or-bust to trust.
TE Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry may have had one explosive performance in Week 2, but with such a terrible offense, there is simply no way to trust him.
TE Mark Andrews
It’s hard to fade a tight end who has been so productive in his career, but his eight targets all season are quite alarming. Yes, future game scripts likely won’t call for only 15 pass attempts, but keep Andrews on the bench if you have any other option with more volume.
Hold
QB Jayden Daniels
Daniels looked like the real deal against Cincinnati, but let’s not forget his first two performances. Until he puts together consecutive plus passing days, he’s not a surefire option. Still, his rushing ability generally gives him a pretty comfortable fantasy floor, so he’s likely a top-12 option in any given week.
RB Kyren Williams
When the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the third round, questions arose about Kyren Williams’ role in the offense. Would Corum take more touches to keep Williams fresh and healthy?
Through three weeks, though, the answer to that question is a resounding no. Williams is currently the No. 4 RB and No. 11 overall player in PPR leagues. While his 3.0 yards per carry average is miserable, he’s getting so many touches that it barely matters. He’s played 87% of the Rams’ offensive snaps compared to Corum’s 4%.
The Rams’ offense is currently decimated with Puka Nacua and three starting offensive linemen on injured reserve and Cooper Kupp out indefinitely. Still, all that means is more touches for Williams.
The biggest concern with Williams is how touchdown-dependent he is. He has five combined touchdowns through three games, four on the ground and one through the air. If not for those scores, his outputs in Weeks 1 and 2 would have been terrible. Therefore, as valuable as Williams currently seems, he is not quite a buy option.
RB Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary is the RB17 in PPR leagues, but that’s largely based on touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. His 4.7 yards per carry and 3.93 yards after contact per attempt are promising, and he is the Giants’ clear RB1. He certainly looks like at worst a weekly flex, but it’s too early to confirm that.
RB Zack Moss
Moss is the RB20 in PPR leagues, but Chase Brown has outperformed him on the ground so far. Brown has just 32 fewer rushing yards on 19 fewer attempts. Brown also has far more yards after contact per attempt (4.71 to 2.79). Moss has created more in the air so far, but Brown could cut into his carries despite the former’s current status as the clear RB1. Hold Moss for now, but he’s more of a mid-level flex option than a true RB2.
WR D.J. Moore
Moore posted a decent PPR outing in Week 3, but it was fueled primarily by a 44-yard Hail Mary reception where he was stopped short of the end zone. Moore has 28 targets and 19 receptions through three weeks, but because his average depth of target is just 7.6, he hasn’t been able to gain chunk plays or help push the ball downfield. There’s still hope for a player who averaged 14.2 yards per reception in 2023, especially if Caleb Williams can pick it up as the season goes on.
Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet each saw 11 targets in Week 3, and when Keenan Allen returns, he could also dig into Moore’s target share. Williams is unlikely to attempt 53 passes again, but Chicago still has a strong pass-catching group. There is a reason to be concerned about Moore’s fantasy ceiling this season.
WR Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin had just 8 receptions for 39 yards through two weeks. In week 3, he caught four of six targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. Jayden Daniels connected with him on two deep balls. McLaurin is still pigeonholed overwhelmingly on the left outside part of the field (76.7%), which is the more difficult side for a right-handed passer to hit. Still, if Daniels can stack performances anywhere near the one he had against Cincinnati, McLaurin will be worth holding on to.
WR Chris Olave
Chris Olave’s total target number is still really low (14 targets through 3 games), but that’s partially because Derek Carr has the third-fewest pass attempts among qualified starters. A 21.9% target share is a lot lower than what Olave would need to be a top fantasy option, but he has still posted over 80 receiving yards in back-to-back weeks and averages 14.3 yards per reception. You may not want to start Olave every week, but don’t give up on him yet, either.
WR Garrett Wilson
Wilson’s first-round pick status was likely quite premature considering his profile. He has not shown himself to be a great red zone target, deep threat, or contested catch player. While his 26 targets are solid, he is not on the same page with Aaron Rodgers just yet. As Rodgers stated, defenses are bracketing Wilson regularly, making it difficult for him to catch the ball downfield. Rodgers and Wilson will undoubtedly find their rhythm, but until then, Wilson could be a very frustrating start each week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk
It was always going to be difficult for Brandon Aiyuk to replicate his record-setting efficiency from 2023. Still, through three weeks, Aiyuk has shown the rust of a player who didn’t go through training camp. He has just 11 catches for 119 yards and is averaging 6.3 yards per target, which is less than half of what he posted last year.
Still, Aiyuk was a very good player before his breakout last season, and he’s too talented to continue on this track. San Francisco’s injuries should provide Aiyuk with more opportunities as the season progresses. Don’t give up on the talented receiver.
WRs Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle
One or both of these receivers could have their moments (Hill had 12 catches for 177 yards in a game Skylar Thompson started in 2022), but as long as Tua Tagovailoa is out, this passing offense looks like a mess. It’s still hard to trade either one, but they’re looking more like bench stashes than starters at this point.
TE Travis Kelce/Sam LaPorta
Travis Kelce has just eight catches for 69 yards through three games. Astonishingly, he has just 13 targets. While he was picked as the TE1 in most formats, Kelce is nearly 35 and posted the lowest yards per reception, yards per target, and contested catch rates of his career last season. The time may have come to fade the future Hall of Famer.
Meanwhile, Sam LaPorta has just nine targets in three games this season. Jameson Williams had 19 targets in the first two weeks (although he had just three in Week 3), which appears to be cutting into LaPorta’s target share. With Amon-Ra St. Brown as Jared Goff’s primary underneath target, it makes sense for Detroit to look deeper downfield rather than sticking with LaPorta underneath.
The fact that LaPorta had just two targets in Week 3 when Williams had three is particularly concerning, though. St. Brown won’t usually have an 18-target game like he did in Week 2, which should open up more targets for LaPorta. Still, Goff has attempted the fifth-most passes in the league but is simply not throwing them the tight end’s way.
With few reliable fantasy options, perhaps continuing to start LaPorta is prudent. He won’t have four targets per game all season. Still, this malaise is certainly worrisome.
