One of the biggest defensive concerns for the New York Jets heading into 2024 was their run defense. Their worst fears were realized in Week 1 when the 49ers gashed them for 180 rushing yards on 38 carries.
In Week 2, things got somewhat better, with notable exceptions. Against the Patriots, although the raw yards per carry number (5.2) looks gaudy, the Jets did not allow Rhamondre Stevenson to beat them.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
Through two weeks, although Stevenson’s 3.5 expected yards per carry ranked 29th out of 31 backs with at least 20 carries, he averaged 4.4 yards per carry, showing that he is a dangerous back who can create his own yardage. In particular, against the Bengals in Week 1, Stevenson averaged 4.72 yards after contact per attempt and had 10 missed tackles forced, leading to an upset win on the road. This was the biggest risk for the Jets in the matchup, but they held Stevenson to just six carries for 23 yards with a long of 13.
The Jets’ porous run defense in Week 1 vaulted the issue onto a national stage. But is that the real Jets run defense?
By the numbers
Given the Jets’ Week 1 performance, their three-game statistics will still look pretty poor. That applies particularly if you factor in the non-running back runs from Week 2 and garbage time runs from Week 3.
Through three weeks (not including the two Monday Night Football games), here are the Jets’ run defense statistics and ranks:
- 388 rush yards (24th)
- 3 rushing touchdowns (T-18th)
- 4.8 yards per carry (26th)
- 4.5 expected yards per carry (22nd)
- -0.01 EPA per carry (24th)
- 45.7% defensive success rate (10th)
- 24.1% missed tackle rate (32nd)
The defensive success rate is somewhat skewed by the fact that the 49ers ran a lot in garbage time in Week 1. The yards-per-carry average is somewhat skewed by the Patriots’ garbage-time gains and a few big quarterback scrambles. Excluding quarterback scrambles and garbage-time runs, the Jets have allowed 4.2 yards per carry (17th), although their EPA per carry is even worse (0.01, 27th).
The missed tackles, though, are perhaps the most worrisome of all. Tackling in general has been an issue for the Jets in the past, but it was not as bad in the run game last year. In 2023, the Jets missed 11.4% of their run defense tackles, which was actually the 10th-best in the NFL.
A small sample size is partially to blame here. No NFL team had a missed tackle rate worse than 16.3% in 2023, but so far this season, six teams are worse than 18%. The Jets’ run-defense tackling will likely even out over time.
Missed tackles from defensive linemen are easier to excuse, as they are dealing in shorter distances with players who are significantly quicker than they are. But 15 of the Jets’ 20 missed tackles in the run game came from linebackers or defensive backs, which can be far more costly.
Tony Adams is by far the worst culprit this season, missing six tackles in the run game (42.9%).
Film
Besides the missed tackles, which will haunt the Jets’ run defense if they continue, other concerning trends show up on the run defense film. The Jets run an aggressive one-gapping scheme, which means their defensive linemen quickly penetrate upfield. However, the only one who seemingly has any awareness or ability to anchor down against blocks is Quinnen Williams.
Solomon Thomas, Javon Kinlaw, Micheal Clemons, Jalyn Holmes, Takk McKinley, and Will McDonald all frequently allow themselves to be blocked out of plays. This makes the Jets’ first line of defense leaky, allowing blockers to climb to the second level and running backs to quickly hit holes.
Kinlaw talked about gaining muscle this offseason to help him take on double teams, but it was readily apparent on his film that this was not the chief issue. For example, was not a lack of strength that caused him (No. 54) to be easily blocked out of this play.
Rather, it was a combination of slanting right at the snap (which appears to have been pre-planned across the defensive line) and, more importantly, a complete lack of recognition that a down block was coming that doomed him.
On this play, it was a combo to a reach block, but the same principle applies. Kinlaw allowed the blocker to push his momentum past the play without anchoring down or pushing back at all. Again, this is a recognition issue, not a play strength issue.
Watch the same thing happen to Jalyn Holmes (No. 97) and Micheal Clemons (No. 72).
In Clemons’ case, another consistent problem is his uncanny knack for guessing wrong. Every single time Clemons knifes inside at the snap, he blocks himself straight out of the play. Even if the Jets are supposed to run an exchange, the fact that he is so frequently wrong means offenses can take advantage of the softer edge and get blockers to the second level to take on the exchanging defender.
For McDonald, lack of strength and poor recognition get him in trouble. Sometimes, offensive linemen toss him aside like a rag doll.
McKinley has one gear and one gear only — rushing like a madman straight upfield. That is a bad recipe for defending the run.
The Jets have had issues with their cornerbacks setting or maintaining an edge, as well. On Calvin Ridley’s 10-yard touchdown run, Brandin Echols inexplicably did not come up to make a tackle.
Schematic issues
Some of the Jets’ issues also come down to bad scheming. On this 3rd-and-2 play, Will McDonald was in the B-gap at the snap. It was too easy for the 49ers to run straight at him. The 236-pound McDonald had no chance. The Jets may want to line up their edge rushers inside on third down, but that should necessarily exclude third-and-short.
Against San Francisco, the Jets ran way too many bear fronts with Quinnen Williams at nose tackle. This essentially compromised the integrity of their entire defensive line, making them susceptible to double teams and forcing their lighter linebackers into difficult edge-setting situations.
In general, playing Williams at nose tackle in the hope of replacing Leki Fotu is foolish. Williams is not a big two-gapping defensive tackle, and using him that way fails to capitalize on his strengths in the run game.
The Jets should also structure their defense as they did in 2022 rather than 2023. When Sheldon Rankins played opposite Williams, the Jets aligned in their base 4-3 defense at a much higher rate. In 2023, they shifted over to a much heavier nickel approach, playing a third safety when they wanted more run defense support rather than utilizing a third linebacker.
Jamien Sherwood’s film from early this season shows he is a more than capable linebacker. If the Jets did not trust him to take Kwon Alexander’s place last year, they should now. When offenses play 12 personnel or other heavier alignments, the Jets should play three linebackers.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets played in their base defense on 29.8% of their plays in 2022. That shifted to just 16.2% in 2023, the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. They’re a lot higher at 24.7% this year, and as long as teams try to exploit them in the run game, they should continue to play base.
Any hope?
The Jets elevated Holmes from the practice squad for their first two games and then signed him to the active roster once Jermaine Johnson went down. This seemed to be their attempt to compensate for the injury to Fotu, who started the season on injured reserve.
Fotu’s job was to be the Jets’ two-gapping run stuffer in the middle. In theory, this should mean that if he returns in Week 5, the run defense will be a lot stiffer. However, Fotu’s film tells a different story: it is not all that different than Kinlaw’s. His 335 pounds do not compensate for his inability to anchor down in the run game.
Here are the key weaknesses Joe Blewett listed in his film review of Fotu. They sound eerily like what I described above with Kinlaw and the rest of the Jets’ defensive linemen.
- Anchor for size (mostly because of technique)
- Too willing to be strung out on blocks instead of finding ball
Fotu’s past does not suggest he can step in as an excellent Al Woods replacement. The Cardinals averaged 4.6 yards per carry allowed with Fotu on the field and 4.7 with him off it, unlike the Jets’ 3.1/4.2 split with Woods last season.
The argument that Fotu will do better in the Jets’ scheme is invalid. The Jets brought him in precisely because he is a two-gapping nose tackle. Even if their other defensive linemen penetrate upfield, Fotu’s job will be similar to what it was in Arizona.
And, on the flip side, if the Jets do have him penetrate upfield — why would Fotu (6.60 Relative Athletic Score) do that better than, say, the far more athletic Kinlaw and Solomon Thomas (9.11 and 9.71 RAS)?
Furthermore, having Fotu on the field will inevitably compromise the Jets’ pass rush. Kinlaw and Thomas have started the season well in that category, and Leonard Taylor has shown promise.
Even if Quinnen Williams is on the field, putting Fotu next to him over one of the other defensive tackles means the offense will have an easy one-on-one blocking matchup that does not concern them at all. The Jets saw this exact scenario play out with Woods last season, as passing offenses feasted on his presence.
Overall defensive success
During the offseason, Michael Nania argued that the Jets’ lack of run defense success may not matter all that much. He cited the mediocre run defenses of the Chiefs and Ravens last season compared to their total defensive DVOA, as well as the fact that 11 of the 16 teams that were below average in yards per carry allowed had winning records.
The Jets’ defensive rankings in 2023 were Exhibit A for how a mediocre run defense did not matter all that much. They finished third in overall defensive DVOA and 14th in run defense DVOA.
Furthermore, the Jets built their defense based on the premise that they would play with more leads, negating the need for run defense. They essentially traded in John Franklin-Myers for Haason Reddick for this exact reason. While Franklin-Myers is a far better run defender, Reddick’s pass rush strength matched what they felt they needed from an edge defender.
Currently, though, there are two primary flaws with this premise. One is that the Jets’ pass rush is suspect at best even with how they constructed their defensive line. Reddick’s holdout is a major part of this. If the Jets can’t rush the passer, even if their coverage remains strong, quarterbacks will sit in the pocket and eventually find holes.
Furthermore, based on the way Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ offense have played so far, the idea of taking big leads might not be as feasible as initially thought. Through three games, the Jets have just 19 offensive drives, tied for 19th. Even though they have 2.26 points per drive (10th), methodically moving the ball downfield rather than gaining explosive plays can limit point potential and thus cap the ceiling of how big a lead the Jets can have.
Again, it’s early, and Rodgers is still getting on the same page with his receivers. The explosive plays will likely come once he and Garrett Wilson get in sync and the run-blocking finds its cohesion. That could give them bigger leads.
Still, as the 49ers showed, teams with a good run game and defense could pose significant problems for the Jets. Even if other offenses cannot do exactly what San Francisco did, they can keep the Jets’ offense off the field with their run game and force Rodgers et al. to be perfect. Perhaps that points to an imperative for the offense to seek more explosive plays to mask the leaky run defense.
The Jets cannot look at their performances against Tennessee and New England and assume their run defense woes are over. The tackling and awareness issues that pervade their team could become season-long issues. However, playing their base defense more often (especially if C.J. Mosley is back at middle linebacker, making Sherwood the third linebacker) can help them close up the worst of the gaps. Ultimately, it will be the defense’s job to excel in pass coverage and cover up the run defense issues.
