Will McDonald put together the Year 2 pass-rush breakout that New York Jets fans hoped for.
After posting three sacks on minimal reps in his rookie year, McDonald translated that production to a much larger role in 2024. With his defensive snap count skyrocketing from 184 to 758, McDonald posted 10.5 sacks.
Even with a 7.5-sack jump in his second year, the Iowa State product still has plenty of untapped potential waiting to be unlocked. Speaking to the media in May, Jets defensive coordinator Steve Wilks expressed optimism about McDonald’s growth, saying he looks noticeably larger and stronger entering his third season.
“Will is phenomenal,” Wilks said. “He can get to the passer. Will is a lot more physical and stronger than what I anticipated and saw from afar as far as being able to be stout in the run game.
“There’s always that fluctuation with his weight and that’s something that he has to control with the strength staff, which we have a tremendous group of guys there, but his effort, his approach each and every day, I’m on board with him. I’m excited about what he can do and I’m looking forward to a great season from him.”
What could a Year 3 breakout look like for McDonald?
Here are some benchmarks McDonald should aim for as he seeks to become the most complete version of himself in 2025.
1. Strengthen run defense
While McDonald could still get even better as a pass rusher, he has already put himself among the best players at his position in that phase.
In 2024, McDonald ranked 11th among edge rushers in sacks (10.5), fifth in quarterback hits (24), and 13th in total pressures (61, per PFF). The only other players to reach all three of those numbers were Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson.
Already in this type of company, McDonald’s primary focus should not be on the passing game. It is in the run game where he has the most room to increase his impact.
As we broke down in-depth earlier this offseason, McDonald may have been the league’s worst run defender at his position last year. He ranked last in multiple statistical categories, and his film backed it up.
Coming from such a low starting point, it would be unrealistic to ask McDonald to become a net-positive run defender overnight. League-average is an attainable goal to shoot for. Even that would be a massive boon to McDonald’s value.
As a run defender, McDonald is guilty of both committing too many errors and making too few impact plays. In 2024, he ranked third-worst among qualified edge rushers with a missed tackle on 23.1% of his tackle chances in the run game. He also recorded a run stop on just 3.0% of his snaps against the run, which ranked second-worst.
It is rare to see an edge rusher struggle so immensely in both areas. McDonald had a 1.3-to-1 ratio of run stops to missed tackles; not only was that the worst ratio at his position, but it was just one-third of the position average among qualifiers (3.9-to-1).
Essentially, McDonald needs to be three times as consistent just to become average. That’s a lot of work.
McDonald’s reported weight gain and added strength will help him get there. The third-lightest edge rusher in the NFL last season (236 pounds), McDonald’s thin frame certainly hurt him in some situations. However, the size and strength alone will not be enough. McDonald needs to improve his mentality and fundamentals against the run.
Simply put, McDonald needs to be more tenacious. There were instances on film where McDonald did not appear to give the best effort at setting the edge.
In terms of technique, McDonald must learn how to play with a more balanced approach. He often played too aggressively off the line of scrimmage, which helped his pass rushing, but left him vulnerable in the run game. Teams had success running into McDonald’s gap, as he tended to quickly vacate the edge by pursuing the ball instead of trying to clog the running lane.
The Jets’ coaches need to work with McDonald on playing with more discipline. He must stay prepared to set the edge, even if it costs him a split-second of get-off time in the passing game.
McDonald is athletic enough to still get home on his rush without exploding off the line with reckless abandon. If he can play more patiently on first and second down (saving the all-out explosiveness for obvious passing situations), it will go a long way toward improving his run defense. Couple that with his physical improvements, and there is a map to success for McDonald.
Statistically speaking, fans should simply expect McDonald to be competent. If he can add a few more run stops and eliminate some of the missed tackles, he will trend closer to being “just another guy” in the run game rather than a colossal liability. That is all the Jets need from him alongside his elite pass rushing.
Another key aspect of McDonald’s run defense is its effect on his pass-rush ceiling. If McDonald continues to struggle at the same degree as a run defender, it could cause him to lose snaps, therefore limiting his opportunities to do damage as a pass rusher.
Aaron Glenn comes from a Lions defense that tended to deploy big-bodied edge rushers who can stop the run, like Aidan Hutchinson (268) and Za’Darius Smith (270). Glenn would also frequently rotate tweener-type defensive tackles to set the edge on run downs, such as John Cominsky (285) and Levi Onwuzurike (290). McDonald is a departure from that, but the Jets will deal with it in exchange for his pass rushing – as long as he is passable. If his run defense hurts the team, Glenn and Steve Wilks might feel it best to cut his snaps.
The Jets don’t need McDonald to become a two-way star. That is an unrealistic expectation for a 26-year-old who still hasn’t risen above bottom-tier run defense. His ceiling is an elite pass rusher who is competent enough in the run game to stay on the field for three downs, and that is what New York should expect from him in Year 3.
2. Reach strip-sack ceiling
McDonald’s best path to improvement as a pass rusher would be to rack up more takeaways. With as much time as he spends in the backfield, he is capable of creating more turnover opportunities than he has so far.
Coming out of Iowa State, one of McDonald’s most intriguing traits was his strip-sack potential. A bendy, long-armed speed rusher who excelled at turning the corner, McDonald projected as a player who could knock a ton of footballs loose from NFL quarterbacks.
McDonald has mammoth 34⅞-inch arms, which rank in the 91st percentile among edge rushers. He used them to his advantage with the Cyclones, forcing 10 fumbles across 54 career games.
In the early stages of his NFL career, McDonald has shown flashes of translating this skill, but there is plenty of room for growth. He had one forced fumble in his small role as a rookie, and in 2024, he had two.
McDonald has forced three fumbles on 939 NFL defensive snaps, which is a rate of one every 313 snaps. In college, he forced 10 fumbles on 1,505 snaps – one every 151 snaps. That’s more than twice as often.
Of course, the college game is completely different from the NFL game, so it’s not easy to copy-and-paste college production to the next level. Still, there are many NFL stars who force fumbles at a strong enough rate to post at least three of them per season.
Among players drafted since 2010, the NFL’s top punch-out artists are Chandler Jones (34 career FF), T.J. Watt (33), Khalil Mack (32), and Robert Quinn (32). Combined, these four stars have forced 131 fumbles in 611 games, which is an average of 3.6 per 17 games. On a per-snap basis, their 131 FF on 32,257 snaps gives them one every 246 snaps. Compare that to McDonald’s 313 rate.
As shown by the combined rate of those four stars, McDonald’s college rate of forcing a fumble about once every 151 snaps is unsustainable in the NFL. But if he can improve to about once every 250 snaps, he would consistently force at least three fumbles every 17 games. In 2024, he played 758 defensive snaps, which means he would have had almost precisely three forced fumbles at the rate of one every 250 snaps.
Forced fumbles are an erratic metric. You often see players spike with a massive total in one season, followed by multiple years with few or none. As a couple of examples, Miami’s Bradley Chubb forced six of his 13 career fumbles in 2024 alone, while Pittsburgh’s Alex Highsmith forced five of his nine career fumbles in 2022 alone.
Coming off two somewhat underwhelming seasons in this department, McDonald is due for a spike in forced fumbles in 2025. A year with five or six forced fumbles could be in store for him. He will not reach those heights every year, but he is bound to do it at some point, and there is no better time than right in the heart of his prime.
Overall expectations
In terms of McDonald’s pass rushing, the expectation should be to replicate what he did last year. Improvement is possible and would be more than welcome, but he has already hit a level of production that the Jets would be thrilled to have on a yearly basis if he can maintain it.
McDonald excelled at all levels of the pass rushing ladder. He created pressure at a high rate, converted his pressures into hits on the quarterback, and converted his hits into sacks. This is a player who wins frequently and makes it count when he does. The only thing he could really do is get even better in each area; there isn’t a specific weakness to pinpoint.
Another season of 10+ sacks, 20+ quarterback hits, and 60+ pressures would be a success for McDonald – as long as he reaches the other goals we discussed.
If McDonald posts the same pass rushing numbers while jumping to 4+ forced fumbles and league-average run defense, he will put himself in the conversation among the top edge rushers in the game.
However, if McDonald fails to reach new heights in those two areas, the expectations for his pass rushing will rise.
The 2024 version of McDonald, for all of his success as a pass rusher, is a player with a limited ceiling. How much of a net-positive impact can a player really have when struggling as much as McDonald did in one of the game’s two phases? Can you justify paying that type of player top-tier money over the long haul? The Philadelphia Eagles’ investment in Bryce Huff backfired.
Without league-average run defense or a boatload of forced fumbles, McDonald needs to be a complete game-wrecker as a pass rusher to establish himself as a legitimate star. That would entail something like 13+ sacks, 30+ quarterback hits, and 80+ pressures.
If last year’s version of McDonald turns out to be his ceiling, he might find himself relegated to something of a pass-rush specialist in the NFL. I have a hard time seeing the Glenn-led Jets continuing to utilize him as a three-down player for very long if he continues to play the run like he did last year (without making that second leap from a great pass rusher to a world-class one). Robert Saleh’s “All Gas No Brake” defense was fine with it, but I don’t see that happening in this scheme.
McDonald could still be a very useful player in a pass-rush-centric role (see the 2022-23 version of Huff), but the issue is that he would probably not be paid like that. As shown by Huff, many teams would pay a pretty penny for pass-rush upside, even if the player’s overall value does not match the contract. Could the Jets keep McDonald on a contract that is fair for a one-dimensional player? It seems unlikely.
All eyes are on McDonald’s run defense. Improve to “competent” in that phase, and he will be a fantastic building block for the Jets. Remain stagnant, and things get tricky. At that point, McDonald will have to make another significant leap as a pass rusher to justify his starting role. If not, he will remain a limited player in a three-down role, which could lead to an eventual role reduction.
All the while, keep an eye on those forced fumbles. McDonald has a high ceiling in this area, one that is still waiting to be sniffed.
McDonald continues to be one of the Jets’ most fascinating players to evaluate. While he is coming off a breakout year, nothing about him is set in stone just yet. His career could still go in a multitude of directions.